Tuesday, September 30, 2014

TUESDAY 9/30/14; Hong Kong 'Umbrella Revoution'; EOM; WAG; Chicago PMI; Consumer Confidence; Russian Ruble Collapsing

The Hong Kong Occupy Central and Umbrella Revolution continues with protestors refusing to back down. The 100K or more protestors are demanding that leader CY Leung step down, free and fair elections be permitted in Hong Kong and near-term democratic reforms to begin right away. A deadline is set for tomorrow and if the demands are not met the protestors will announce ne




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 1102 teasing the psychological 1100 level. VIX 16.31. EWZ drops another -0.6% as Rousseff is expected to be reelected in Brazil.

Oil slides lower desperately searching for a bid as the dollar moves higher. WTIC crude oil is bludgeoned -3.2% to 91.32. The WTIC and Brent spread is down to three dollars from 27 showing no demand for oil overseas. The US dollar is above 86 at a four-year high and driving the dollar/yen pair higher towards 110. Silver collapses -3% to 16.97. Gold drops -0.5% to 1209. Dr Copper is beaten -1.2% to 3.00. Platinum, PLAT, is punished -0.6% to 1299 losing the psychological 1300 level and down -15% in only two months. Palladium, PALL, is down -2.3% to 773. The collapse over the last few weeks in the metals is remarkable.

The month ends with the SPX down -1.6%, the Dow is down fractionally -0.3%, the Nasdaq loses -1.9% in September and the RUT is the big loser collapsing -6.2%. The third quarter ends today, EOQ3, and the broad stock market (SPX, INDU, COMPQ) is up for seven straight quarters (21 months). The RUT posts a loss for Q3 with small caps continuing to roll over. A huge near 80% of the Russell 2000 stocks are down during the third quarter; this will get your attention.

Technology and healthcare are the big winners in Q3 and utilities and energy the losers. Biotech, IBB, is a huge winner up +6% in Q3. IPO’s RWLK, LOCO, MBLY and GPRO are enjoying orgy rides of glory doubling and tripling from the initial offering prices. Global M&A is very active in Q3. Crude oil drops -13% in Q3. Emerging markets, Europe and the US small caps are weak this year.

The SEC charges two men with insider trading in HLF. Activist investor Ackman is not involved. An analyst doing work for Ackman mentioned to a friend that Herbalife would be named as a Ponzi scheme. The friend told another friend and that man benefited by $47K playing the short side with options ahead of the announcement.

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