Sunday, June 3, 2018

May Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-05 is Available from Amazon



The May publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-05 is available from Amazon.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-06 for June is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 6/30/18.

SUNDAY 6/3/18

Global nations are unifying and pushing back against President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Six of the G7 leaders express disappointment in the US for escalating a trade war. China takes advantage of the discord among the Western nations and says a trade deal is off if the US proceeds with tariffs on Chinese goods.

In China, US Commerce Secretary Ross meets with Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic minister in the communist nation, but the discussions end without a joint press conference or communique. The global community is uniting against President Trump’s tariffs and trade war escalation. Trump is known for punching back twice as hard.

Retaliatory tariffs against the United States are targeting key voting regions that will negatively impact the Republican Party and President Trump. Canada plans retaliatory tariffs on pickles, strawberry jam, quiche and pizza that specifically target the states that enjoy republican leadership.

Mexico plans retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products such as apples, grapes, cheese and pork legs that will impact the Midwest states that elected Trump. Mexico also plans retaliatory tariffs against steel products that will impact workers in cities such as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Gary, Indiana, and Detroit, Michigan all areas that have supported the president.

The European Union is planning retaliatory tariffs on bourbon whisky which targets republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell’s state of Kentucky. The EU will also implement tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Levi Strauss jeans that will hurt the republican-leaning US heartland.

President Trump the deal-maker held all the cards in his New York real estate deals. Contractors must kneel and kiss his shoes to receive work. After all, he who has the gold makes the rules. The world stage is a different playing field. Concerning the escalating trade wars, targeted nations do not genuflect in front of the president accepting the tariffs but instead retaliate tit-for-tat.

On the North Korea denuclearization drama, Secretary of Defense Mattis says, “We can expect a bumpy road to the negotiations.” Mattis says sanctions will remain in effect until North Korea begins steps towards denuclearization. President Trump has already watered-down his demand for full denuclearization from NoKo at the upcoming summit on 6/12/18 (only nine days away) now touting a step-wise approach to removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula.

In a shocking development, embattled Syria President Assad accepts an invitation from North Korea tin-pot dictator Kim Jung-un to visit the hermit kingdom. This is surprising and likely bluster because Assad’s airplane would probably be shot out of the sky by covert Western forces if he travels from Syria to North Korea.

Global 10-year yields are; Brazil 11.39%, India 7.85%, Mexico 7.81%, Greece 4.43%, US 2.90%, New Zealand 2.73%, Australia 2.70%, South Korea 2.70%, Italy 2.64%, Singapore 2.54%, Canada 2.24%, Hong Kong 2.07%, Portugal 1.83%, Spain 1.41%, UK 1.28%, France 0.70%, Netherlands 0.54%, Germany 0.38%, Japan 0.04%, Switzerland -0.12%.

India and Mexico are at parity. Ditto New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and Italy. The global elite continue paying Switzerland for the privilege of parking their money in the Alps. The US-Germany 10-year yield spread is 252 basis points. The Italy-Germany 10-year spread is 226 bips. The Spain-Germany 10-year yield spread is 103 bips. The Italy-Spain spread is 123 bips.

Euro 1.1666. Dollar/yen 109.53. Pound 1.3354. US dollar index 94.19.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates at the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting on 6/13/18 only 10 days away.

SATURDAY 6/2/18


SPX 2735. INDU 24635. COMPQ 7554. RUT 1648. NIKK 22171. SPASX200 5990. KOSPI 2439. SSEC 3075. HSI 30493. BSE 35227. DAX 12724. CAC 5466. FTSE 702. MIB 22110. IBEX 9632. PSI 5517.

The government turmoil in Italy is calming after a wild week that sent Italian bond yields to record-setting highs while sinking the MIB stock index. Giuseppe Conte was sworn-in as prime minister yesterday and the new populist government says there is no intention of Italy leaving the euro. The boot-shaped nation has installed 65 different governments since 1946.

US Secretary of Defense Mattis criticizes China on the ongoing military expansion and aggression in the South China Sea. Mattis warns of consequences if China’s intimidation and coercion continues.

An Uber driver shoots his passenger on a Colorado interstate. Police arrest the driver. Uber management is very disturbed concerning the incident. Questions immediately rise about the Uber driver vetting process. The ride-sharing company wants to come to market as an IPO next year.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve revises its Q2 GDP forecast from +4.0% to a strong +4.7%.

The republican-leaning news outlets such as Fox News are giddy over the jobs report. Even the democrat-leaning media sources such as CNN and MSNBC concede that the numbers are great for the economy. It is always interesting to watch folks comment on economics and markets from naïve perspectives.

In truth, wages only met expectations at +2.7% year-on-year. Inflation, that the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers have tried to create over the last nine years with their obscene Keynesian money-printing, cannot exist without wage growth. Wages must increase at the +4.0% to +4.5% annual rate to create sustainable inflation; the wage number remain well below +3.0%. Inflation is Godot.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-04 is Available from Amazon; Yield Curve Drama; Trade Wars Continue; Earnings Strong but Stocks Soggy; US Dollar Above 92; Euro Under 1.20; Pound Under 1.36; Oil Near 4-Year Highs; FB CEO Zuckerberg on Capitol Hill; Unemployment Rate Prints 3-Handle; Historic Korean Summit; Systems Outages Occurring at Global Stock Exchanges; US and France Strike Syria




The April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-04 is available through Amazon. The 2018-04 publication describes and explains the stock, bond and currency market drama in detail in real-time.

The May 2018-05 publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 6/2/18.