Sunday, December 4, 2016

MONDAY 12/5/16; Italy Referendum Aftermath; Fed Speak; PMI Services Index; ISM Non-Mfg Index

The results from the Italy referendum and Austria election sends global markets…..

Asia and Aussie indexes begin trading


European indexes are

The MIB….

The Q3 earnings season draws to a close without any notable companies reporting this morning. Earnings from homebuilders TOL and HOV are in focus this week. The confessional season will occur later this month ahead of the Q4 earnings reports beginning in early January.

A peak in tax loss selling typically occurs the first week in December so a slight negative bias in stocks would be expected. The ECB meeting is on Thursday which will impact global markets.

Three Fed speakers are on tap today starting with Dudley. Fed’s Dudley says

Fed’s Evans, an uber dove, says

At 9:30 AM EST, US stocks begin trading

PMI Services is

At 10 AM, the ISM Non-Mfg Index is

European trading ends


Fed’s Bullard says

Stocks end the day


After the bell,

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-11 is Available on Amazon; Trump Wins Stocks Rally; Donald Trump 45th President of the United States; Stocks Print All-Time Highs SPX 2214 INDU 19225 COMPQ 5404 RUT 1347; Global Bond Rout (Yields Explode Higher); India Cash-Swap Program; Oil Rallies on OPEC Production Cut; Market Angst Ahead of Italy Referendum

The November publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets andWorld Economics 2016-11 is available through Amazon (AMZN). The epic market action continues with Donald Trump elected as the 45th president of the United States (POTUS). A huge (or as Donald Trump says, “‘yuge”) Trump Rally occurs in the stock market after the election with a corresponding bond rout (lower prices higher yields).

November’s Cover Highlights;
SPX 2214 INDU 19225 COMPQ 5404 RUT 1347

The month of November is historic for markets. The polls were wrong in predicting the Brexit vote and they were wrong again predicting Hillary Clinton to defeat Donald Trump. The orange-headed bombastic clown took the prize from the scandal-ridden liar in the pantsuit. The S&P futures crashed as the election results came in, however, after Trump’s early Wednesday, 11/9/16, well-received acceptance speech, stocks took off to the upside and never looked back for an epic three-week rally.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics is the only document available that recorded the futures, stocks, bond and currency moves in real-time as election results came in. That was quite a night of drama on Tuesday, 11/8/16, into Wednesday morning and it can only be re-lived by reading the chronology. Market enthusiasts will reference this month’s chronology for years to come since the 2016 presidential election drama is explained as it unfolds in real-time, hour by hour.

The four major stock indexes, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small caps all print historic all-time highs in November. Global bonds crash with yields going parabolic. Those that have been touting inflation for several years proclaim that this time inflation is here to stay. The jury remains out.

The November issue includes the results and market reactions to both the 11/4/16 and 12/2/16 job reports. OPEC reaches an oil production cut agreement which sends oil prices vertically higher with WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude oil) testing the 50-52 price level for the fourth time since May.

India is undergoing a major currency shift where all large cash bills are being removed from society as a means of decreasing corruption, tax evasion and black market movement of goods. The highest bill now in circulation in India is equivalent to about $15 in the United States (between a $10 bill and $20 bill). The India government does not have enough of a supply of small bills showing a gross lack of planning. India’s economy suffers from the move with GDP slipping a touch and the stock market sinking.

The drama ahead is the Italian referendum vote on Sunday, 12/4/16. This may create turmoil with the insolvent Italian banks which are pieces of garbage. Austrian elections are also occurring on 12/4/16.

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists in this format where the stock, bond and currency moves are provided and explained as world events take place in real-time.

The chronology records economic history preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Many of the same asset managers telling everyone to go long the market in 2007-2008 repeat the same mantra in 2015-2016. The stock market topped out in May 2015 which placed anyone that listened to television pundits over the last couple years either flat or underwater on their long trades. The central banker go juice has pumped stocks higher from February of this year to present creating new all-time highs and rewarding those that blindly remain long with full confidence in the Federal Reserve’s Keynesian schemes.

Analyst and strategist quotes and words are recorded in the chronology so credit or disdain can be handed out in the future. If a multi-year top is printing, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the stock market topping process ever recorded in economic and market historyThe chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source for explaining global marketsThe chronology is cheap and very easy to read and avoids using fancy ten-dollar college words.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on this web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how the stock market tops and bottoms occur in real-time. The monthly publications are compatible with any electronic device and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive business-related acronym list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.

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SUNDAY 12/4/16; Italy Referendum; Austria Election

Voting day is here for the Austrian elections and the all-important Italian referendum. Polls are open. The Austria vote is the next test of the strength of the global populism movement. The right-wing Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer faces off against the left-wing moderate Alexander Van der Bellen. Hofer is young at 45 years old battling the more senior Van der Bellen at 72 years old.

A Hofer win elects a far-right government that will take a hard line against immigration and may pursue a path to leave the European Union (EU). The prior election between these two in May awarded Van der Bellen the win, however, the courts nullified the election due to ballot irregularities. Today is the rematch. The Trump win in the States may provide an edge to Hofer.

Italy’s referendum is a more important issue due to the shakiness of the garbage Italian banks. Italy PM Renzi says he will resign if a no vote occurs. Renzi has proposed constitutional reforms that would award the prime minister more power and reduce the complexity of the Italian government. Many Italians are skeptical since they typically prefer the status quo.

Italy has not instituted any reforms over the last many years so the economy and banks are the sick men of Europe. Renzi’s proposed reform package, which is a yes vote on the referendum, would allow laws to be passed easier in Italy cutting red tape. There are concerns, however, that too much power would be given to Renzi and future prime ministers that serve five-year terms. Italian politics are a mess that has led the boot-shaped nation down a troubling and rocky garden path.

The no vote on the Italian referendum will likely lead to Renzi booted from government and new elections. In addition, other factions in Italy may then want to pursue a referendum for Italy leaving the EU. The most important thing to watch overnight tonight is the Italian banks. The banks desperately need to shore up their balance sheets that are riddled with garbage loans and insolvent paper. Any confusion or instability after Italy’s referendum vote may wreak havoc on the Italian banks.

The major worry is that the sick Italian banks will create contagion across Europe and perhaps the world a la Lehman Brothers in late 2008. In chaos theory, the Butterfly Effect opines that a little butterfly flapping its wings at the right instant in time and space in New Mexico may create a hurricane in China. Are the Italian banks the little butterfly? Lehman Brothers was a little butterfly.

Global traders will be monitoring computer screens all night long. US futures will tell the tale at 6 PM EST (11 PM London; 12 midnight Milan and Vienna). Will the votes in Italy and Austria produce outcomes like the Brexit and the Trump election wins that resulted in ever-higher stock markets, or, is this time different? If there is market turmoil, the ECB will likely step in with easy money to save the day. The ECB meets on Thursday. The central bankers are the market for the last eight years.

Euro 1.0669. Dollar/yen 113.54. Pound 1.273. WTIC oil 51.68. Brent oil 54.48. Natural gas 3.46. Gold 1179. Silver 16.80. Copper 2.63.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.11%, 5-year 1.83%, 10-year 2.39%, 30-year 3.07%.

Global 10-year yields are; Brazil 12.31%, Mexico 7.33%, Greece 6.38%, India 6.24%, Portugal 3.65%, Australia 2.86%, Singapore 2.43%, US 2.39%, South Korea 2.25%, Italy 1.90%, Canada 1.61%, Spain 1.54%, UK 1.38%, Hong Kong 1.36%, France 0.71%, Netherlands 0.42%, Germany 0.28%, Japan 0.02% and Switzerland, remaining negative, at -0.19%. Italy’s 10-year was above 2% a couple days ago so investors are seeking safety in the bonds sending prices a touch higher and yields lower ahead of the referendum.

In the Austrian runoff election, Van der Bellen defeats Hofer by 53% to 47%. Hofer concedes. The elite class raise wine and champagne glasses cheering the outcome with one official commenting that ‘Austria stuck it to the populist movement’. Another says ‘the right-wing rabble-rousers were handed a defeat in Austria’ and ‘Europe’s backward-looking populism movement is dead’. The polls are wrong again since they indicated a very tight and close race but the results show Van der Bellen cruising to victory without any worries.

CS strategist Andrew Garthwaite proclaims a +7% rise in the S&P 500 into mid-year 2017 to 2350 and to finish next year above 2300. Market prognosticators continue to predict an ever-increasing stock market. Interestingly, the SPX monthly chart is displaying negative divergence across the RSI, MACD, MACD histogram, stochastics and money flow indicating a high probability that a multi-year stock market top is currently printing; exactly when money managers are telling Ma and Pa Kettle to place their life savings in the stock market.

At 5 PM EST (10 PM London and GMT; 11 PM Milan, Paris and Frankfurt), the Italian polls are closed. The vote counting begins that decides the fate of young Prime Minister Renzi.

At 6 PM EST, US  futures…..

At 6:30 PM EST (1:30 AM Monday morning in Milan), the xx vote wins in the Italian referendum.

Friday, December 2, 2016

SATURDAY 12/3/16

SPX 2192. INDU 19170. COMPQ 5256. RUT 1314. NIKK 18426. SPASX200 5444. SSEC 3244. HSI 22565. BSE 26231. DAX 10514. CAC 4529. FTSE 6731. MIB 17087. IBEX 8607. PSI 4392.

The battle in Mosul, Iraq, is taking a toll. 3000K Iraqi’s have 

[Text is redacted. Purchase the 2016-11 chronology to enjoy November's economic and market history.]

Austria elections and Italy’s referendum vote are on tap tomorrow. Global markets will react on Monday.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

FRIDAY 12/2/16; BIG; US Monthly Jobs Report

Euro 1.0669. Dollar/yen 114.09. Pound 1.2593. US dollar index 100.94. WTIC  oil 50.91. Brent oil 53.63. Natural gas 3.54. Gold 1174. Silver 16.56. Copper 2.6355.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 

[Text is redacted. Purchase the 2016-11 chronology to enjoy November's economic and market history]

Trump is poking a stick in China’s eye since Taiwan is viewed as a renegade province by the Beijing communist leadership. Trump is creating lots of drama. Trump’s foreign policy will be much more hawkish and forceful than President Obama’s docile and timid, leading-from-behind, approach.

THURSDAY 12/1/16; Global PMI’s; Oil Rally Continues; WTIC Oil Above 51; Brent Above 54; DG; EXPR; KR; SHLD; Challenger Job-Cut Report; ISM Mfg Index; INDU (Dow Industrials) New All-Time Closing High; AMBA; FIVE; SWHC; ULTA; WDAY; ZUMZ

Today is the first trading day in December. The major stock indexes start the new month at or near the following record intraday and closing highs, respectively. SPX (S&P 500) 2214.10 on 11/30/16 and 2213.35 on 11/25/16. INDU (Dow Jones Industrials) 19225.29 on 11/30/16 and 19152.14 on 11/25/16. COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) 5403.86 on 11/30/16 and 5398.92 on 11/25/16. RUT (Russell 2000) 1347.20 for both the all-time intraday and closing high on 11/25/16. NDX (Nasdaq 100) 4911.76 on 10/25/16 and 4909.97 on 10/24/16. NYA (NYSE Composite) 10903.86 on 9/8/16 and 10890.79 on 9/6/16.

[Text is redacted. Purchase the 2016-11 chronology to enjoy November's economic and market history]

If Italy’s referendum vote ends in turmoil to begin next week’s trade, ECB President Draghi will likely step in by Thursday or sooner to save the day. At least, that is what traders are conditioned to think. Tonight is the eve before the epic two weeks of market drama begins. Take a deep breath.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

WEDNESDAY 11/30/16; EOM (End-of-Month); BOE Bank Stress Tests; RBS Flunks; OPEC Meeting; Oil Rallies +8%; Brent Oil Tops 50; AEO; TITN; ADP Employment Report; Chicago PMI; SPX (S&P 500) and INDU (Dow Industrials) New All-Time Highs; Beige Book; BOX; GES; LZB; PVH

US futures are flat. S&P flat. Dow +1. Nasdaq flat. Euro 1.06524. Dollar/yen 112.52. Pound 1.2491. Dollar/yuan 6.9047. Aussie dollar 0.7484. USD 100.93. WTIC oil 45.23. Brent oil 46.34. Natural gas 3.32. Gold 1193. Silver 16.66. Copper 2.61.

[Text is redacted. Purchase the 2016-11 chronology to enjoy November's economic and market history.]

After the closing bell, several mid-tier companies report earnings resulting in the following moves in late trading. BOX +1%. PSTG +1.1%. LZB beats on the top and bottom lines. GES is crushed -12%. Clothing giant PVH collapses -2.6%. Specialty retailer Tilly’s beats on the top and bottom lines. TLYS lost -4% during the regular season.