Sunday, May 31, 2015

MONDAY 6/1/15; Global PMI’s; NIKK and SSEC Record Highs; ISM Mfg Index; PVH

At 7 PM EST Sunday evening in the States, US futures are marginally higher. S&P +1. Dow +17. Nasdaq +7. Euro 1.0968. Dollar/yen 124.16. Pound 1.5288. Aussie dollar 0.7638. WTIC oil 59.95. Brent oil 65.19. Natural gas 2.61. Gold 1193. Silver 16.74. Copper 2.73.

New cases of MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) occur in Hong Kong after an infected South Korean man travels from Seoul (he had spent time in Saudi Arabia). Over two dozen people are placed in quarantine that came in contact with the man and another two dozen are under surveillance. Concern increases across South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China that the deadly MERS virus will spread 

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Trucking company ODFL drops -2% after lowering guidance which is not a good sign for the economy. Propane company FGP drops -3% after announcing a secondary offering.

The INTC and ALTR deal sends merger activity to new highs. M&A activity in May exceeds $226 billion a record high with the only larger month in May 2007 at $243 billion. Typically, the stock market tops out when M&A activity peaks.

The average US auto loan is nearly $500 per month at record levels. The average lease rate is lower at $405 per month. Americans are preferring larger and fancier cars and taking on larger loans. The average loan amount is nearly $29K and loan durations are 67 months; nearly six years. By then, all you are left with is a rusted bucket of bolts.

SUNDAY 5/31/15

Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Beau Biden, 46, dies of brain cancer. Secretary of State Kerry breaks his leg in a cycling accident cutting his trip around Europe short returning to his hometown of Boston, Massachusetts, for treatment. Kerry met with Iran officials one day ago to further the nuclear negotiations.
Fed Chair Yellen announces plans to not attend the Jackson Hole Symposium in August the first central banker to miss the event in recent years. Y

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 takeover of data center programmable chip maker ALTR overnight tonight. The talks are very close so companies will typically push to close a deal so the news can be announced first thing Monday morning. The Merger Monday M&A deal news would boost the tech sector and overall market mood.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

SATURDAY 5/30/15

Four Americans are held hostage in Yemen buy the Iran-backed Houthi Islamist radicals. The Yemeni government that cooperated with the United States drone program targeting terrorist training camps 

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SPX 2107. INDU 18011. COMPQ 5070. RUT 1247. NIKK 20563. SPASX200 5777. KOSPI 2115. SSEC 4612. HSI 27424. DAX 11414. CAC 5008. FTSE 6984. MIB 23496. IBEX 11218.

Friday, May 29, 2015

FRIDAY 5/29/15; EOM; NIKK Record High; Global GDP’s (Gross Domestic Product); BIG; Chicago PMI; Consumer Sentiment

The NIKK finishes up +0.1% to 20563 another 15-year record high and extending an 11-day winning streak not seen for 27 years. The Nikkei Index gains +1.5% this week. For the month, the NIKK is up +5.5% extending a five-month winning streak and up 11 of the last 13 months. The power of the BOJ money printing is impressive. Unfortunately, easy money only serves to make the wealthy, that own stocks, filthy rich at the expense of the rest of society.

Japan CPI inflation data is 

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 the Pentagon says ‘ISIS is not a significant threat in Saudi Arabia’. The Whitehouse continues to ignore the rise of the radical Islamist State and violent Holy Wars flaring up across the Middle East over the last three years saying only that the strategy against ISIS will be ‘fine-tuned’.

Euro 1.0987. Dollar/yen 124.11. Pound 1.5289. WTIC oil 60.23. Brent oil 65.56. Natural gas 2.642. Gold 1191. Silver 16.71. Copper 2.735.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.61%, 5-year 1.49%, 10-year 2.12%, 30-year 2.88%. German bund 0.489%. The bund moves steadily lower over the last month (investors seeking safety) and no one is noticing. Japan 10-year yield 0.401%.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

THURSDAY 5/28/15; China Stocks Collapse; Greece Drama Continues; ANF; AVGO; COST; ULTA

At 10 AM Tokyo local time (9 PM in the States Wednesday evening), the NIKK is setting new record 15-year highs fueled by the weaker yen. US futures are flat. Euro 1.0911. Dollar/yen 123.71. The dollar/yen pair is catapulting 

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 to 1253 sitting at the 50-day MA at 1251. The pivot off the 50-day for small caps will likely take the broad indexes in the same direction. VIX 13.31.

URI loses -9.1%. SDRL drills a dry hole losing -6%. IMAX is a big winner up +3.2%. CMG gains +2.8%.

After the closing bell, ULTA gains +2% after beating on the top and bottom lines. DECK runs +4% higher after earnings. GME explodes +6% higher after positive earnings. Industrial packing company GEF drops -11% on weak earnings and guidance a troubling sign for the economy. If demand for packing materials decreases, then companies are shipping less products. SPLK loses -3% after earnings; Splunk goes splat. Specialty materials maker ATI loses -2% due to a quality control problem.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

WEDNESDAY 5/27/15; NIKK and SSEC Record Highs; G7 Meeting Begins; TOL; KORS; TIF; DSW; Greece Deal Rumor Creates Europe and US Stock Rally; Semiconductor Rally; COMPQ All-Time Record High; PANW

The DoD (Department of Defense) is tracking Keystone the Scribe’s daily chronology through its secure IP addresses. It is interesting to know that this valuable daily global information that market participants, economists, students, traders and investors rely on is viewed as useful intelligence by the US government.

Asia indexes end mixed with Japan and China higher. The NIKK gains +0.2% to 20473 another record 15-year high. BOJ meeting minutes show concern remaining over the +2% inflation goal. The SPASX200 is down -0.8%. Fortescue Metals retraces -2% after the big +11% up day. The weakness in commodity stocks sends the Aussie broad market lower.

KOSPI -1.7%. Former Fed Chairman paints a rosy picture from a forum in Seoul, South Korea, proclaiming that China will not experience a hard economic landing. Bernanke says 

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 PANW earnings are better than expected. Palo Alto Networks comments on the CirroSecure acquisition and PANW trades flat to marginally higher. TEVA discloses a 1.4% stake in MYL and both trade higher on the news. Chip maker ADI trades down -1% on news of insider selling; vice president John Hassett sells 10K shares.

Monday, May 25, 2015

TUESDAY 5/26/15; AZO; Durable Goods; Housing Indexes; PMI Services; New Home Sales; Consumer Confidence; WDAY

At 8 AM Tokyo time (7 PM EST Monday evening in the States), the NIKK futures indicate another move higher and record high up +0.3%. S&P futures -3. Dow 

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 German bund 0.548%. Japan 10-year yield 0.412%.

The IRS says cyber criminals have accessed tax information of 100K Americans. The IRS claims that the main computers are not compromised but the ongoing corruption, incompetency and scandals at the powerful tax collection agency does not instill confidence.

MONDAY 5/25/15; Japan Trade Data; NIKK and SSEC Record Highs; Memorial Day; US Markets Closed

At 9 AM Tokyo local time (8 PM EST Sunday evening in the States), Hong Kong and South Korea markets are not trading due to holidays. Australian stocks begin 

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remains in denial saying that the US is “not losing the fight against ISIL (ISIS).” Political commentators and republican and democrat lawmakers say the president is either misinformed or in denial. Major Iraqi cities such as Mosul, Tikrit and Ramadi are falling to the ISIS militants; it is easy to see that the Islamic State is expanding its caliphate across Syria and Iraq. The president says the US did not train the Iraqi troops that cut and ran in Ramadi. This statement is patently untrue as military leaders quickly say we did train and equip the troops that ran away and would not fight. The Middle East and northern Africa is a mess.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

SUNDAY 5/24/15; Spain Elections

Protestors take to the streets yesterday afternoon and through the night in Cleveland, Ohio, USA, after a white police officer is acquitted on charges of killing two blacks in a car riddled with bullet holes. In 2012, the car may have backfired as it passed the police station and officers thought there were gun shots. A huge 25-minute car chase developed and when the car stopped it was riddled by 137 bullets by a dozen police officers. The courts say they cannot pin the killings directly on 

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 Bogle says a +7% annual return should be expected for long-term investors. As with all forecasts, it depends on the beginning and end dates. Following Bogle’s advice in the first decade of the 2000’s as the dollar dropped provided no net return on investment. The only way to know if he will be correct is to look back 20 years from now in 2035 to see if he was correct, or not. In the shorter term, few investors can stomach perhaps a -50% haircut in their capital should a major market event occur over the coming months and years.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

SATURDAY 5/23/15; Memorial Day Holiday Weekend

The DOJ identifies potential criminal wrongdoing by GM concerning the ignition switch debacle and General Motors faces more fines perhaps $1.5 billion and more. Former and current GM employees may be charged with crimes. GM stock prints a bullish week gaining +2.3% but drives into the ditch again.

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 Fed Chairman Bernanke announced QE1 to prevent the stock market from crashing further than it already had. Unfortunately, stocks were never allowed to properly washout and correct as capitalism dictates so the economy remains in a malaise while the wealthy, that own large stock portfolios, have become filthy rich off the Fed’s Keynesian policies. Free markets died in early 2009.

Friday, May 22, 2015

FRIDAY 5/22/15; BOJ Decision; NIKK and SSEC Record Highs; European Summit in Riga; ANN; CPB; DE; FL; CPI (Consumer Price Index); Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Asia indexes catapult higher with happy bullish action. The computer screens are a sea of green. SPASX200 +0.1%. The NIKK is up +0.3% printing a 15-year high at 20264. KOSPI +1.1%. The SSEC is up +2.8% printing a seven-year high at 4658. The HSI gains +1.7%. For the week, the NIKK is up +2.7%. The SSEC is up nearly +8% as the Chinese stock market orgy continues. The HSI is up +0.6% on the week lagging the mainland joy due to the worrying epic -50% collapses in Hanergy and Goldin this week.

The BOJ leaves their 80 trillion yen stimulus program in place and 

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Snowden shed light on the unconstitutional spying by the NSA on Americans, remain aware that all communications you perform on computers, smartphones and other electronic devices is continuously monitored, recorded and archived. Americans must decide if they want to live free or live under constant government surveillance. Living free means there is always risk of a terrorist event negatively impacting your life; simply look at Israel’s daily struggle. By giving up your freedom for the promise of security, however, you are left with neither freedom nor security.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

THURSDAY 5/21/15; Global PMI’s; AAP; BBY; BONT; DLTR; TTC; Philly Fed; Existing Home Sales; Leading Indicators; Fed Vice Chairman Fischer Speaks; SPX All-Time Record high; ARO; BRCD; HPQ; GPS; LGF; MRVL; ROST

Asia indexes are mixed overnight. The SPASX200 gains +0.9%. Building products company James Hardie Industries catapults +12% higher on strong profits. The KOSPI drops -0.8% with heavy-hitters such as Kia Motors and Samsung Electronics trading lower.

The NIKK finishes dead flat at 20202 after printing a HOD at 20320 at levels not seen in 15 years. Panasonic bounces +2.3% printing seven year highs. The BOJ begins its two-day policy meeting.

China PMI is 

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 ongoing theme of earnings beats but weak top line sales numbers continues across all sectors for the last couple years. Companies can continue meeting EPS by simply firing workers and forcing the existing employees to pick up the slack but consumers remain hesitant to spend.

In the evening Fed’s Williams voices concern that the meeting minutes are far too detailed and creating too intense a focus by traders and investors. Reap what you sow. The Federal Reserve and other central bankers have manipulated markets for the last six years and now complain that investors pay too close attention to their every move. That’s rich.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

WEDNESDAY 5/20/15; Japan GDP; LOW; TGT; AEO; SPLS; HRL; FOMC Minutes; SPX New All-Time Record High; LB; WSM; CRM; NTAP

The NIKK is set to begin trading above 20K with traders fixated on Japan’s GDP data. Troubled airbag maker Takata is expected to trade lower after announcing a 34 million vehicle recall, the largest recall in history, finally buckling under pressure by regulators to make good on their faulty parts and manufacturing procedures.

Japan GDP comes in at 

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LB report a one penny beat on EPS but top line sales are light. The sexy Victoria’s Secret lingerie is not dancing off the shelves as joyously. L Brands also owns Bath & Body Works. Home products retailer WSM bounces +4% after beating on earnings but guidance is lowered for Q2 blaming the West Coast port shutdown.

The options market is pricing in a 7% move either up or down for Salesforce upon its earnings release. CRM reports a beat on the top and bottom lines and jumps +5% higher. NTAP collapses -9% after reporting disappointing earnings and lowering guidance. NetApp is firing 500 employees. SNPS loses -1% after reporting earnings. YOKU rises +1.4% after earnings.

Monday, May 18, 2015

TUESDAY 5/19/15; Global Stock Rally; ECB Accelerates QE Program; Euro Drops to 1.11 Handle; UK Slips into Deflation; WMT; HD; DKS; TJX; Housing Starts; SPX and INDU All-Time Record Highs; ADSK; CSC; ETSY

Asia indexes are set to follow the US euphoria and trade higher. The RBA meeting minutes leave the door open to another rate cut so the Aussie dollar drops to 0.795 but quickly recovers to 0.7995. The spike in the US dollar index is placing pressure on Aussie commodities with gold, iron ore and basic materials trading lower sending the SPASX200 down -0.8%. The Straits Times is 

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oil pipeline ruptures in Santa Barbara, California, USA, spilling 21000 gallons of crude oil (342 barrels) creating an environmental crisis. A four-mile oil slick occurs along the ocean coast and the clean-up is underway. Railroad tanker cars hauling dangerous chemicals derail in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA. The train accidents continue.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

MONDAY 5/18/15; Japan Machinery Orders; China Home Prices; SPX and INDU New All-Time Record Highs; URBN

Luxury goods maker Kering files another lawsuit against BABA alleging the sale of counterfeit goods on the Alibaba website. Kering owns famous brand such as Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent. In Australia, South32, the spinoff from BHP Billiton and

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 Sunni versus Shiite which will likely destabilize the Middle East and northern and western Africa for decades. The Iraqi soldiers are incapable of fighting the ISIS Islamist radicals so the situation is expected to deteriorate in Iraq and Syria. To this day, the president refuses to refer to ISIS as “Islamist” radicals.

The St Louis Fed site was compromised by computer hackers one month ago. The breach allows cyber criminals to create web pages that look exactly like the official Federal Reserve site. Users of the Fed data are exposed to computer attacks as they enter password and other information into the phony sites. The Fed urges users to change passwords and exercise caution when seeking economic information from the St Louis site.

SUNDAY 5/17/15

25 tornado’s pummel the Midwest threatening wheat, corn and grain crops. Homes and businesses are damaged across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming and Minnesota. The storms are creating flash floods and are expected to continue today. Several areas are hit with hail the size of baseballs.

UA is under fire after 

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2-year 0.54%, 5-year 1.46%, 10-year 2.15%, 30-year 2.94%. The 2-10 spread is 161 basis points and the 5-10 spread is 148 bips. The US-German 10-year yield spread is 151 bips. German 10-year bund yield 0.635%. Japan 10-year yield 0.40%.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

SATURDAY 5/16/15; US Delta Force Conducts Raid on ISIS in Syria

Today is Armed Forces Day with several cities planning parades to honor the military including the air force, army, navy, national guard and coast guard.

The big wig fund investors report their quarterly holdings. Paul Tudor Jones buys the troubled LL and also ANGI, ZU, ORCL, AOL and ZNGA. Jones sold stakes in AAPL, FB, MCD, T, TFM and S. Warren Buffett’s BRKA increases stakes in 

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American Pharoah is a mudder (runs well on a muddy track) while other horses struggled. American Pharoah will next race in the Belmont Stakes in New York in a few weeks to make a run at the Triple Crown; the horse is beautiful and powerful and perhaps unstoppable. The last Triple Crown winner was Affirmed in 1978.

Friday, May 15, 2015

FRIDAY 5/15/15; PBR; Empire State Mfg Survey; Industrial Production; Consumer Sentiment; OpEx

Asia indexes are mixed. NIKK gains +0.8%. The Topix jumps higher as many companies such as Mitsubishi Financial, Marui Group, Dai Nippon Printing and Dentsu adopt buyback programs to pump stock prices higher. The central banker easy money is used for financial engineering (stock repurchase programs and dividend increases) to make the wealthy wealthier via rising stock prices rather than companies buying capital equipment or 

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terrorist attacks on peaceful nations all over the world. A Holy War is underway due to the president’s lack of proactive foreign policy; the ISIS goal is to impose strict Sharia law around the world and kill all Christians and Jews. The US foreign policy is weak with friendly Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and others losing confidence in the president’s leadership ability especially since President Obama is more friendly to Iran which is bank-rolling the terrorist activity across the Middle East and northern Africa.