Friday, July 31, 2015

FRIDAY 7/31/15; EOM (End of Month); CVX; XOM; MOD; STX; TYC; WY; Employment Cost Index; Chicago PMI; Consumer Sentiment

Asian indexes finish the week on an upbeat. The NIKK is up +0.3% to 20585 maintaining the 20.5K level. The SPASX200 is up +0.5% to 5699. The KOSPI gains +0.6% to 2030. For the week, the NIKK is up +0.2%, ASX 200 up +2.4% and KOSPI down -0.7%. For the month, the NIKK gains +1.7%, ASX 200 up +4.4% and KOSPI down -2.1%.

Japan household spending falls 

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 SSEC plummets -14.3% this month. In the United States, semiconductors should be leading higher but instead the SOX tumbles -5% this month and is smacked from 750 to 636, -15%, in the last two months a mini-crash in chips. Social internet stocks, SOCL, are down -5% this month. YELP is bludgeoned -39% devastating the company. Cybersecurity stocks are mixed as nefarious computer hacking continues around the globe 24/7. FEYE drops -9% in July while PANW is up +6.4%.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015


Asian indexes are set to follow the US lead and trade higher. The dollar strengthens after the Fed decision so gold and other commodities may be under pressure today. Opinions are mixed as to whether the Fed statement is dovish or hawkish. The doves highlight the lack of a direct reference to a September date certain for a rate hike while hawks 

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Soulcycle files for an IPO. The fitness franchise employs stationary bicycles with trainers where exercise enthusiasts are charged $40 for a 45-minute session. The silly season may be here when a company can install a bunch of stationary bikes in an empty room and then file for an IPO. It is reminiscent of the and days of late 1999 as the dotcom bubble peaked and popped.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015


Asian indexes should follow the US lead and print a joyous positive session. The Nikkei Index and Aussie ASX 200 Index futures are set to open higher. Dollar/yen 123.57. WTIC oil 47.75.

Multinational luxury conglomerate LVMH (Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi, DKNY) beats on earnings with strong sales all 

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negative impact is occurring to the results due to the weak oil and gas market and stronger dollar. Pipeline operator WMB misses on the top and bottom lines. Oil company NE beats on earnings and catapults +5% higher. OI beats on the top and bottom lines.

At 5:47 PM EST (6:47 AM Tokyo time Thursday morning), FB is down -2.4%. Facebook needs to stop talking on the conference call; the more they talk the lower the stock moves. WFM is bludgeoned -11%.

Monday, July 27, 2015

TUESDAY 7/28/15; DHI; DD Cuts Dividend; F; IR; JBLU; MRK; PFE; UPS; FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins; Consumer Confidence; European and US Stocks Rally; Oil Recovers; GILD; TWTR; YELP

Chinese regulators are vowing to support the market after the -8.5% plunge in the Shanghai Index yesterday. Nikkei Index and Aussie’s ASX 200 Index futures point to a lower open.

Asian indexes trade generally lower during 

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10-year 2.25%, 30-year 2.96%. Japan 10-year yield 0.70%. German 10-year yield 0.70%. TWTR is bloodied in the afterhours trading in the States down -11%. TWTR drops -22% from its initial +11% high directly after the earnings release at 4 PM EST.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

MONDAY 7/27/15; SSEC Crashes -8.5% Creating Cascading Global Selloff; NSC; Durable Goods; BIDU; EMN

At 8:08 AM Tokyo time (7:08 PM EST Sunday evening in the States), US futures are dead flat. Euro 1.0975. Dollar/yen 123.80. Pound 1.5522. Aussie dollar 0.7282. USD 97.27.

WTIC oil 48.06. Brent oil 54.62. Natty gas 2.75. 

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beats on the top and bottom lines but expenses are rising and guidance is lowered. BIDU drops -6% and recovers to -4%. PG trades flat on news that David Taylor is replacing AG Lafley as CEO. Traders focus on the Asian markets wondering how Chinese stocks will trade overnight. China’s mini-crash in the SSEC losing -8.5% created the cascading global selloff in Europe and the US.

SUNDAY 7/26/15

India Prime Minster Narendra Modi calls for Britain to provide reparations to India for 200 years of colonial rule. Modi plans to visit the UK later this year but the red carpet may remain in storage; the call for reparations by India go over like a lead balloon in Britain.

Turkey is now active 

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Jerusalem police battle the militants at Temple Mount and sustain four injuries. Three Arabs are arrested and additional skirmishes break out on side streets requiring riot police to fire stun grenades. Demonstrators yell, “Allahu Akbar!” Under President Obama’s watch, the Middle East erupts into a new Holy War pitting Arab against Jew as well as the resurgence of the 1400-year hatred between Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shiite (Iran).

SATURDAY 7/25/15

SPX 2080. INDU 17569. COMPQ 5089. DAX 11347. CAC 5057. FTSE 6580. MIB 23508. IBEX 11309. PSI 5791. NIKK 20545. SPASX200 5566. KOSPI 2046. SSEC -1.3%. HSI -1.1%. BSE 28112.

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 injuring two people and displacing hundreds. DB (Deutsche Bank) sold the luxury hotel to BX (Blackstone) last year.

Friday, July 24, 2015

FRIDAY 7/24/15; Global PMI’s Disappoint; AAL; BIIB; COL; XRX; New Home Sales

The China Caixin PMI (formerly the HSBC PMI) is 48.2 in economic contraction under 50 and below all economist’s estimates. China’s factory activity is at a 15-month low. HSBC sponsored the Chinese PMI data for the last five years but Caixin takes over the sponsorship role creating the name change. Ridiculously, economic data takes on sponsors providing naming rights like baseball and football stadiums.

Gold and copper 

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 increase of suicide bombings and refugees turning radical inside Turkey prompts the pro-active change in policy. Turkey plans to permit US and coalition fighter jets use air bases along the Syria border which will greatly improve the fight against radical Islam.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

THURSDAY 7/23/15; CAT; CELG; CY; DOW; DNKN; LLY; FCX; LAZ; MAC; MCD; MMM; NUE; RS; PHM; RTN; R; UA; UAL; UNP; Leading Indicators; INDU Turns Negative on the Year; AMZN; COF; T; SWKS; SBUX; V

Gold is down for 10 consecutive days, the longest losing trend since the 1990’s, trying to stabilize at 1097. WTIC oil lost the 50 level and remains well under closer to 49.

New Zealand cuts rates for the 

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 goes berserk in a Lafayette, Louisiana, USA, movie theater killing three people, wounding nine others and then turning the gun on himself. The vast majority of shootings in the US are occurring from people either radicalized by militant Islamic teachings or flipping out from anti-depressant medications.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

WEDNESDAY 7/22/15; Global Selloff After Disappointing Tech Earnings; AN; BA; KO; ITW; WHR; Existing Home Sales; AXP; QCOM; TXN; FTK; NEM; SNDK; URI

At 8:38 AM Tokyo time (7:38 PM EST Tuesday evening in the States), US futures are soft after the disappointing earnings results from tech heavyweights YHOO, MSFT and AAPL as well as blue chip stocks UTX and VZ. S&P -8. Dow -70. Nasdaq -50. Euro 1.0932. Dollar/yen 123.85. The NIKK futures point to a lower open.

The NIKK begins 

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 blaming the oil and gas slowdown. Gold miner NEM beats on EPS but misses on the top line. LVS jumps +4% higher and should buoy Asian gambling stocks overnight. Cost-cutting measures are benefiting Las Vegas Sands and the big drop in Macau gambling may be stabilizing.

US futures are buoyant after a two-day retreat. S&P +3. Dow +15. Nasdaq +9. Euro 1.0925. Dollar/yen 124.04. Pound 1.5613.

TUESDAY 7/21/15; BK; FITB; RF; TRV; UTX; VZ; AAPL; MSFT; CMG; GPRO; PKG; YHOO; Tech Earnings Disappoint

Asian indexes rally across the board. The NIKK gains +0.9% to 20842 at a one-month high trading for the first time this week after the holiday. Dollar/yen 124.30. The Tankan survey is weaker than expected showing 

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As the dust settles in the afterhours trading, CMG is up +2.2%, YHOO -1.8%, MSFT -4%, GPRO +1.4% and AAPL -7%. The weakness in Yahoo, Microsoft and Apple will create soft trading in the broad market tomorrow.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

MONDAY 7/20/15; Greek Banks Reopen; MS; HAL; HAS; EBAY and PYPL Begin Trading Separately; COMPQ All-Time Record High; WTIC Oil Slips Under 50; Commodities Collapse; IBM; WERN; ZION

The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) is at 0.6526 at levels not seen since July 2009. The New Zealand central bank is expected to cut its key rate to 3%. Japan markets are closed for Marine Day; the yen continues trading in the Forex markets. Indonesia stock markets are closed.

German Chancellor Merkel tells a German broadcaster that 

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phenom Jordan Spieth ends one shot short of winning the third major of the year. Under Armour sponsors Spieth and the UA stock dropped exactly as Spieth missed a putt ruining his chances to join the sudden death playoff. UA finishes up +2% on the session.

SUNDAY 7/19/15

China home prices rise for the second consecutive month up +0.16% building on the +0.06% gain last month. The PBOC started goosing markets by printing money, like the Federal Reserve and 

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 not happy continuing to back a dead horse. Hecklers call the once-unbeatable Woods a “middle-of-the-pack hack.” Jordan Spieth struggles but remains in the hunt. Sponsor UA has fingers crossed for Spieth. Dustin Johnson leads The Open. Adidas sponsors Johnson.

Saturday, July 18, 2015

SATURDAY 7/18/15

SPX 2127. INDU 18086. COMPQ 5210 (all-time record high). RUT 1267. DAX 11673. CAC 4124. FTSE 6775. MIB 23765. IBEX 11481. PSI 5865. NIKK 20651. SPASX200 5670. KOSPI 2077. SSEC 3957. HSI 25415. BSE 28463.

Euro 1.0827. Dollar/yen 124.06. 

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Greek banks are reopening on Monday but the cash withdrawal rules remain in place. The banks were closed 20 days ago on 6/29/15 to slowdown the bank runs in Greece.

Friday, July 17, 2015

FRIDAY 7/17/15; German Bundestag Votes on Greece Bailout Plan; GE; CPI (Consumer Price Index); Housing Starts; COMPQ All-Time Record High; Consumer Sentiment; OpEx; Ramadan Ends

Asian indexes follow the US lead and run higher sans Korea. The NIKK gains +0.3% to 20651 only 300 points from multi-year record highs on a five-day winning streak. For the week, the Nikkei Index is up +4.5% recovering dramatically from the prior week’s sell off as the Greece bailout saga 

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Muslim radicals and deranged individuals that commit mass murder are clearly targeting US locations that advertise as “gun-free.” Businesses are waving the gun free banner in the window thinking it affords safety but it promotes the exact opposite result. Deranged individuals are specifically targeting these locations since they know no one has a gun to fight back. Any business that advertises as a gun-free location should be avoided since the chances are exponentially higher that a mass murder event would occur at these facilities.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

THURSDAY 7/16/15; ECB Rate Decision and President Draghi Press Conference; Greece Requires Short Term Funding; C; GS; BX; KEY; PM; UNH; SHW; Philly Fed; US Domestic Terrorism Shooting; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks to Senate; COMPQ All-Time Record High; AMD; GOOGL; SLB

In early trading, Asian and Aussie indexes are higher across the board. NIKK +0.6%. Toshiba drops -2% on news that executives are resigning due to the ongoing accounting scandal. The SPASX200 is up +0.9% teasing towards 5700. KOSPI +0.1%. Steelmaker Posco follows the negativity in US steel stocks yesterday dropping 

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Dennis Gartman of the “Gartman Letter” is bullish on stocks and says anyone shorting the global stock market is making a “fool of themselves as equities continue to rally.” Gartman says smart people are trying to short the stock market due to overvaluation but “the market keeps moving higher.” Gartman stands on a soap box and proclaims, ”It is still a bull market and if you try to sell it, if you get out of it, especially if you try to go short of it, you make a fool of yourself.” Gartman’s words are reminiscent of economist Irving Fisher’s words in 1929 when he proclaimed, “Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau.” Fisher made this remark exactly at the top in the stock market before the 1929 crash that led to the Great Depression.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

WEDNESDAY 7/15/15; Greece Parliament Bailout Vote Passes; BOJ Policy Decision; China GDP (Gross Domestic Product); BAC; BLK; USB; PNC; DAL; PPI (Producer Price Index); Empire State MFfg Survey; Industrial Production; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks to House; Iran Nuclear Deal Fallout; Beige Book; INTC; NFLX

Asian indexes are trading higher except for China. At 10:18 AM Tokyo time (9:18 PM EST Tuesday evening), the NIKK is up +0.4% and KOSPI gains +0.6%. The SSEC is down -1.2%, CSI off -2.4% and HSI up +0.4%. US futures are slightly positive. S&P +2. Dow +13. Nasdaq +7. Euro 1.0999. Dollar/yen 123.32. Pound 1.5642. Aussie dollar 0.7454.

Oil continues higher. WTIC 53.33. 

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US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.63%, 5-year 1.63%, 10-year 2.356%, 30-year 3.14%. Japan 10-year yield 0.461%. Italy 10-year yield 2.00%. Spain 10-year yield 2.01%.

The new moon peaks for the month at 9:24 PM EST and stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon, however, equities are typically bullish through the Fed’s semi-annual Congressional testimony.

Monday, July 13, 2015

TUESDAY 7/14/15; Iran Nuclear Deal; Greece Drama Continues; Q2 Bank Earnings Begin; JPM; WFC; JNJ; Retail Sales; Business Inventories; CSX; YUM

At 8:34 AM Tokyo time (7:34 PM EST Monday evening in the States), US futures are a touch negative. S&P -2. Dow -15. Nasdaq -2. Euro 1.10. Dollar/yen 123.49. Pound 1.5482. Aussie dollar 0.7397.

WTIC oil 51.92. Brent oil 57.85. An Iran nuclear deal is 

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 10-year 2.40%, 30-year 3.19%. German bund 0.84%. Japan 10-year yield 0.452%.

Fed’s George says…

Sunday, July 12, 2015

MONDAY 7/13/15; Europe and Greece Approve Bailout Plan; Greece PM Tsipras Capitulates; Europe and US Stocks Rally

At 7 AM Monday morning Tokyo time (1 AM Monday Athens time; 12 AM midnight Brussels time; 11 PM UK time; 6 PM EST Sunday evening), Greece is told that it must accept further austerity measures to receive more aid. A rumor surfaces that the IMF has asked for Tsipras’s resignation. Sources close to the IMF say the rumor is “rubbish.”

European leaders extend an olive branch to Greece giving the nation 72 hours to 

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Greece throws a party in Europe and the United States. The session ends with the SPX gaining 23 points, +1.1%, to 2100. The 50-day MA support/resistance level is 2100 so the pivot up or down from this level is very key. The Dow jumps 217 points, +1.2%, to 17978; the 50-day MA is 17973. The Nasdaq is up 74 points, +1.5%, to 5072. The 50-day MA is 5042. AAPL is up nearly +2% pumping the Dow and Nasdaq indexes higher. The Russell 2000 small caps are up 13 points, +1.1% to 1265. VIX 13.90.

After the closing bell, activist investor David Einhorn says NFLX is overvalued and scratches his head as to why the stock moves higher on weak earnings. Einhorn is investing in AMAT and BK. Einhorn exits trades in Altice, CONN, EMC and MRVL.

SUNDAY 7/12/15; Greece Bailout Talks Stall

Euro zone finance ministers are skeptical concerning the Greek bailout proposal. The Eurogroup was unified last week but is splintering. Germany, Finland, Austria and Slovakia maintain a hard line on Greece and state “trust” as a major issue. Slovakia finance minister Peter Kazimir says lack of trust is so big that “it’s not possible to reach a deal today.” France and Italy are more sympathetic to Greece’s plight. Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem says the Greece situation is “still very difficult.” Italy’s Renzi takes the side of Greece telling Germany that “enough is enough” and “we must absolutely sign a deal.”

Tensions are running high as the Eurogroup meeting 

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At 5:30 PM EST (10:30 PM London; 11:30 PM Brussels; 12:30 AM Athens Monday morning; 6:30 AM Tokyo Monday morning), Greece bailout talks are ongoing and may continue until dawn. The critical element is the extension of the ELA (emergency liquidity assistance) by the ECB otherwise the Greek banks will collapse tomorrow.

The euro is down -0.4% to 1.1115. Dollar/yen 122.44. According to spread betting web sites, the DAX is set to open -1.5% lower tomorrow morning and the FTSE -1.1%.