Saturday, September 16, 2017

SATURDAY 9/16/17; London Terror Attack

SPX 2500 (all-time record high). INDU 22268 (all-time record high). COMPQ 6448 (at all-time highs). RUT 1432. NIKK 19910. SPASX200 5695. KOSPI 2386. SSEC 3354. HSI 27808. BSE 32273. DAX 12519. CAC 5214. FTSE 7215. MIB 22229. IBEX 10317. PSI 5202.

30 people are injured in the London terror attack yesterday. The UK is under a critical terror watch which means another attack is likely. Londoners do not sleep well overnight. The London police identify the criminal suspect but will not release the name or a photo. Of course they will not. London Mayor Khan always downplays the radical Islamic terrorism as it increases in his city month after month.

In the US, 10 police officers are injured and over two dozen people arrested at the St Louis, Missouri, race riot last evening.

President Trump turns into a Washington, DC, political insider more and more each day. He cut the debt ceiling deal with democrats that will lead to the US spending more money it does not have. Trump is lying in bed with democratic leaders Pelosi and Schumer much to the chagrin of the republicans. In addition, President Trump appears to be back pedaling slightly from his border wall. When you drink the water in Washington, DC, it changes you.

The student loan problem is beginning to spin out of control. Parents think the only path to success for their children is college but Johnny and Peggy may actually be better matched as a welder, plumber or chef rather than a paper and pencil pusher. Student loan debt is at a shameful $1.33 trillion.

The young people take on massive debt thinking an education leads to a guaranteed job; they find out it does not. Instead, they become indentured servants to the United States since bankruptcy cannot be declared on student loans. Young people are not buying homes since many prefer paying off their student loans first.

The Credible website reports that one-half of millennials in the United States would give up their right to vote if their student loan debt was forgiven. More specifically, 50% of the 18 to 34 year olds would ditch their voting privileges for two years if their college debt was wiped clean.

The student loan and subprime auto loan problems are festering and will play a negative role when the recession arrives and the stock market rolls over to the downside. The auto sector is declining having likely hit ‘peak auto’ for this cycle. There are cracks forming in the housing sector which focuses global attention on the Housing Starts released on Tuesday, 9/19/17.

Target is discounting prices on thousands of items as the holiday shopping season approaches. TGT bounced nearly +5% last week. Lower prices are disinflationary and deflationary. The Federal Reserve has tried to create inflation for 8-1/2 years with their obscene Keynesian spending but has only succeeded in making the wealthy more filthy rich.

An 18-year old man is arrested in Dover, England, suspected of carrying out the London terror attack yesterday. The sicko was trying to flee on a ferry from Britain to France. Interviews with 45 witnesses and individual videos aid Scotland Yard in finding the perpetrator rather than the hundreds of cameras positioned around London spying on citizens. London police and Scotland Yard continue to refuse to release the name or a photo of the suspect.

FRIDAY 9/15/17; North Korea Missile Launch; London Terror Attack; Pound (Sterling) Above 1.35; SPX, INDU, COMPQ and NYA Print All-Time Highs; OpEx Quadruple Witching; SPX PRINTS 2,500

At 7:56 AM Friday morning in Pyongyang, North Korea (7:27 AM Seoul, South Korea; 7:27 AM Tokyo; 6:27 PM EST Thursday evening in the States), Kim Jong-un rattles his saber again. North Korea fires a missile that flies 2000 km (1243 miles) beyond Hokkaido, Japan, landing in the Pacific Ocean. This is the second missile flown over Japan in as many months and it travels higher and farther. The missile distance indicates that Guam is within its range.

President Trump has been briefed on the North Korea situation by Chief of Staff Kelly. S&P -6. Dow -33. Nasdaq -16. Dollar/yen 109.96. Swiss franc 0.9618. Gold 1333.

Japan says further provocations from North Korea cannot be tolerated (they do not say will not be tolerated). South Korea says a North Korea provocation can destabilize markets. Japan PM Abe lands in Haneda returning from a trip to India to meet with PM Modi. Abe proclaims the missile launch is “unacceptable.”

South Korea launches a missile in response to NoKo that purposely lands into the sea. The distance was carefully calibrated to exactly match the distance to the launch site of the North Korea missile.

Euro 1.1917. Dollar/yen 110.01. The dollar/yen pair briefly dipped to 109.56. Pound 1.3394. Aussie dollar 0.7999. Dollar/yuan 6.556 a palindrome.

WTIC oil 49.77. Brent oil 55.47. Natural gas 3.07. Gold 1333. Silver 17.88. Copper 2.965.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.36%, 5-year 1.78%, 10-year 2.18%, 30-year 2.77%. The 2-10 spread is 82 bips.

Australia and Asia stock markets begin trading marginally lower. NIKK -0.3%. ASX 200 -0.3%. KOSPI -0.3%. Lotte Shopping +8% on a Nomura upgrade. Aussie dollar 0.8002.

The UN Security Council plans to meet on Saturday morning concerning the latest North Korea missile launch. Tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula. Markets are nervous but taking the NoKo provocation in stride.

S&P -6. Dow -33. Nasdaq -13. Bitcoin 3144.

The yen strength quickly fades and the dollar rises against the yen sending the dollar/yen pair above 110 to 110.20 and rising. The weaker yen creates lift in the Japanese stocks and the Nikkei and Topix Indexes turn positive. Gold drifts lower to 1329. The global market reaction to the North Korea missile launch is subdued; it is more of the same from tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un. Asia trading is mixed. Life goes on.

South Korea’s KOSPI reverses its early deficit and trades +0.2% higher and climbing. Samsung Electronics trades flat. Korea Aerospace +1.3%. Victek -6%.

Australia trading remains negative dragged lower by the banking index down -0.7% and materials sector sinking a big -1.9%. Aussie dollar 0.7995. Fortescue CEO Neville Power resigns after steering the ship for seven years. A search for a new CEO begins. Fortescue is the fourth largest iron ore producer in the world.
Japan and South Korea trade higher. Australia leads the Pacific theater lower. Chinese stocks are mixed. Markets calm after the NoKo missile launch.

The NIKK ends the session up +0.5% to 19910. The SPASX200 sinks -0.8% to 5695. The KOSPI finishes up +0.4% to 2386. The SSEC drops -0.5% to 3354. The HSI ikes out a tiny +0.1% gain at 27808.
For the week, Japan’s Nikkei Index rallies +3.3%. Australia’s ASX 200 gains +0.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI rallies +1.9% this week. China’s Shanghai Index finishes the week down -0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index +0.5%. Japan and South Korea leads higher this week while Chinese stocks lag.
India trading continues with the Nifty down 27 points, -0.3%, to 10060.

CEO Jack Ma proclaims that tech stocks are not in a bubble. Alibaba is celebrating its eight-year anniversary. BABA drops -1% yesterday but remains at all-time highs. The stock has gone parabolic this year from 85 to 180 a huge +112% gain a double.

At 3 AM EST (8 AM London; 9 AM Frankfurt), European stock indexes begin trading lower. The sogginess continues after the North Korea missile launch but markets are stable. DAX -0.1%. CAC -0.1%. FTSE -0.4%. AXA falls -0.4% on news of a merger deal.

Euro 1.1918. Euro/yen 131.96. Dollar/yen 110.74. Pound 1.3426. Sterling continues higher way above 1.34 slapping the footsie index in the face. Euro/pound 0.8875. As the pound strengthens, the euro/pound currency pair number moves lower. Mexican peso 17.6838. Canadian dollar 1.2173. Dollar/yuan 6.5444. Indian rupee 64.0725. Aussie dollar 0.7990. USD 92.08.

WTIC oil 49.59. Brent oil 55.21. Natural gas 3.06. Gold is down 3 dollars to 1326. Silver 17.78. Copper 2.9615.

S&P -3. Dow -6. Nasdaq -7. Russell -2. The VIX is up +0.666% to 10.51.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.36%, 5-year 1.78%, 10-year 2.19%, 30-year 2.77%. The 2-10 spread is at 83 basis points.

At 3:31 AM EST (9:31 AM Central Europe), European indexes are marginally negative. The pound continues higher to 1.3438 pushing the FTSE lower. India’s Nifty is down 24 points at 10063.

S&P -4. Dow -10. Nasdaq -7. Russel -2. VIX 10.53.

Bitcoin continues to stumble lower after bigwigs like JPM CEO Dimon blast the cryptocurrency with negative comments and China stops an exchange from trading bitcoin. The digital currency falls nearly -30% over the last week to 3102. The 5000-plus level this month is in the rearview mirror. Central bankers are in bed with the investment banks such as JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs and are not happy that they do not have control over bitcoin and other digital currencies; hence the negative comments from bankers.

At 4:13 AM EST (9:13 AM London), boom. An explosion occurs in London. Police say an incident is occurring in the subway.

At 4:48 AM EST (9:48 AM London), there are injuries from the explosion in London at the Parsons Green Station. Several people may have facial burns but the majority of injuries occur from trampling as passengers and commuters trip over each other panicking and running for their lives. London authorities are not releasing any information. Of course they are not. Mayor Khan will downplay the likely Islamic terrorism. The pound prints above 1.35 at 1.3508.

BOE’s Vlieghe, a dove, says he may support a UK rate hike in the months ahead. It is surprising that the dove turns hawkish. The pound pops to 1.3534. Sterling is running vertical. In addition, Vlieghe hints that a rate hike would not be one and done but instead the beginning of a rate hike cycle. The pound and gilt yields are going to run strongly higher.

At 5 AM EST, US futures are flat. S&P -2. Dow -1. Nasdaq -1. Russell -1. VIX 10.45. India’s Nifty is up 9 points at 10097.

DAX flat. CAC flat. FTSE sinks -0.7%. MIB flat. IBEX -0.1%. PSI -0.2%.

Euro 1.1934. Euro/yen 132.16. Dollar/yen 110.74. Pound 1.3529. Euro/pound 0.8822. Mexican peso 17.6707. Canadian loonie 1.2143. Dollar/yuan 6.5398. Indian rupee 64.0762. Aussie dollar 0.8021. US dollar index 92.00.
WTIC oil 49.83. Brent oil 55.42. Natural gas 3.06. Gold 1328. Silver 17.84. Copper 2.9675.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.37%, 5-year 1.79%, 10-year 2.19%, 30-year 2.77%. The 2-10 spread is 82 bips.

US Secretary of State Tillerson says China and Russia must take direct control of the North Korea situation. London authorities say the bomb in the subway was a terrorist incident. The UK knew this from the start but delayed telling the public.

At 6 AM EST, 18 are injured in the London subway attack. The bomb device is amateurish so the injuries are not serious.

S&P -4. Dow -9. Nasdaq -9. Russell -2. VIX 10.69. DAX -0.1%. CAC -0.1%. The FTSE sinks -1.1% with the pound at 1.3574 on its way to 1.36.

Euro 1.1941. Euro/yen 132.81. Dollar/yen is above 111 to 111.21. The yen weakens. Euro/pound 0.8797. Mexican peso 17.7106. Canadian dollar 1.2161. Dollar/yuan 6.5444. Indian rupee 64.0666. Aussie dollar 0.8016. USD drops under 92 to 91.90.

WTIC 49.90. Brent 55.55. Natty 3.07. Gold 1324. Silver 17.76. Copper 2.9595.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.38%, 5-year 1.80%, 10-year 2.20%, 30-year 2.78%. The 2-10 spread is 82 bips. The Russia central bank lowers it s key rate to 8.50% as expected.

The bullish prognostications continue regardless of whether the stock market moves higher or lower. AB Bernstein strategist Kathy Fisher proclaims higher markets ahead telling investors to remain long the stock market. The pundits have full faith and trust in the central banks that will continue pumping the stock markets higher.

The Leuthold Group strategist Jim Paulsen remains bullish on the stock market telling investors to not be concerned about volatility and the low VIX. Paulsen expects the stock market gains to continue.

Electra Asset Mgmt closes shop. The hedge fund is managed by Hugh Hendry a colorful manager that creates controversy. Hendry came to fame in 2008 for betting against the banks and markets which generated huge outperformace. Hendry is known for his short and negative positions against the stock market although he does not agree with this moniker. The bears have all left town since the global central bankers collude daily to keep the stock markets elevated with easy money.

FTSE -1.3%. Pound 1.3599 one tiny whisker from 1.36. Sterling has gone parabolic with global investors pricing in a rate hike by the BOE in the weeks ahead.

S&P -3. Dow -7. Nasdaq -8. Russell -2. VIX 10.666.

WTIC 49.82. Brent 55.46. Natty 3.07. Gold 1323. Silver 17.75. Copper 2.9585.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.38%, 5-year 1.80%, 10-year 2.21%, 30-year 2.78%. The 2-10 spread is at 83 bips. Uk 10-year gilt yield 1.29%.

The Nifty finishes the session down 1 point at 10085. The BSE gains 31 points, +0.1%, to 32273. For the week, the BSE Sensex rallies +1.9%.

Scotland Yard conducts a press conference on the London terror attack. There are 18 injuries. The attack is the fifth terrorism incident in London this year. Perhaps Mayor Khan should step up his efforts at combating radical Muslim terrorism. London authorities tell citizens to stay alert but not alarmed.

S&P -3. Dow -7. Nasdaq -6. Russell -2. VIX 10.65.

Oracle beats on earnings last evening but is punished nonetheless. ORCL -4.1%. AAL nosedives -2% and UAL -2.6% on JPM downgrades but LUV feels love soaring +1.2% on an upgrade.

Equifax continue to sink as lawmakers put the screws to the credit reporting agencies. EFX -1.6%. TRU -0.8%. Macy’s announces plans to hire 80K seasonal workers less than last year. Merry Christmas. GOOGL trades flat on the news last evening about potentially investing $1 billion in Lyft.

Carnival hits a reef with CCL down -2.5% on a CS downgrade. Henry Schein is upgraded by Piper Jaffray after HSIC plummets -13% in three days. FSLR pops +3.5% on a DB upgrade. CELG pops +0.6% to 141.50 after RBC Capital provides an upgrade to Celgene and forecasts a 176.00 price target.

GNW rises +3.5% adding to strong gains this week as the Genworth Financial deal to buy a Chinese company is acceptable to regulators. STZ and MNST trade higher on upgrades from Macquarie Research. Shareholders will enjoy their beverages today.

At 8:30 AM EST, a huge data dump occurs this morning with Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Survey, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment on tap.

Retail Sales kicks off the parade reporting a -0.2% drop month-on-month missing the +0.1% expected and prior revised-lower +0.3%. Less autos is up +0.2% month-on-month missing the +0.5% expected and prior revised-lower +0.4%. Less autos and gas are down -0.1% missing the +0.3% expected and below the prior +0.5%. The Control Group is down -0.2% missing the +0.3% expected and prior +0.6%.

The retail data is weak across the board and the revisions are lower. The consumer did not shop last month. Families instead choose to tighten their belts. An economy is not healthy if the citizens are not spending money. The big data dump starts off on the wrong foot.

The Empire State Mfg Survey is 24.4 a big beat of the 19.0 expected but below the prior 25.2.
S&P -3. Dow -11. Nasdaq -6. Russell -3. VIX 10.65. Markets are steady and ignoring the North Korea missile provocation.

Euro 1.1964. Dollar/yen 110.98. Pound 1.3585. The injury count from the London terror attack are increased to 22 people some with flash burns. Mayor Khan says people think there is a “spike in terrorism” in London and Europe but it is more of a “shift in tactics.” Khan proclaims, “London will not be defeated.” Those are same words he professed after the last terrorist attack. Sure as night follows day you can count on Khan to water down every terrorist incident. Sadiq Khan serves as an apologist for the deviant acts of radical Muslims. If that is what Londoners want, give them what they want.

Today is OpEx Quadruple Witching with the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Trading volumes will be more robust at the opening and closing bells. Muxh of the action occurs during the last hour of trading which is dubbed the “quadruple witching hour.” Arbitragers are ready to benefit from temporary price distortions as large blocks of contracts change hands.

At 9:15 AM EST, Industrial Production is down -0.9% month-on-month versus the +0.1% expected and prior revised-higher +0.4%. Manufacturing is down -0.3% missing the +0.1% expected and prior 0.0%. Capacity Utilization is 76.1% compared to the 76.7% expected and the prior 76.9%. The data is soft this morning. S&P futures -4.

At 9:30 AM EST, US stocks begin trading flat and trend marginally lower for the first one-half hour of trading. SPX 2494. INDU 22222. COMPQ 6432. RUT 1424. VIX 10.42. Bulls rule with the low volatility.

Euro 1.1963. Euro/yen 132.73. Dollar/yen 110.94. Pound 1.3582. Euro/pound 0.8808. Indian rupee 64.0825. Mexican peso 17.6915. Canadian dollar 1.2185. Dollar/yuan 6.5488.

DAX -0.2%. CAC -0.3%. FTSE -1.1%. MIB -0.1%.

WTIC oil 49.85. Brent oil 55.666. Natty gas 3.03. Gold 1322. Silver 17.68. Copper 2.945.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.38%, 5-year 1.80%, 10-year 2.21%, 30-year 2.78%. The 2-10 spread is 82.6 bips. German bund 0.444%. Japan 10-year yield 0.009%. UK gilt 1.32%. France 10-year yield 0.72%.

At 10 AM, Business Inventories are up +0.2% matching the expectation below the prior +0.5%. Inventories appear half-decently balanced for the economy.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is 95.3 missing the 96.0 expected and prior 96.8. The hurricanes and higher gasoline prices are dampening the consumer’s mood although sentiment remains elevated.

At 10:52 AM, bingo. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high above 2498.43. Two minutes later, 2499.25 prints only 75 cents from the 2500 milestone. Th eCOMPQ prints a new all-time high at 6464.27. The Dow Industrials are at record highs at 22259 moving higher. NVDA jumps +6% higher on news that Apple is interested in the semiconductor king. WDC +2.5%. The market bulls are unstoppable.

SPX 2498. INDU 22250. COMPQ 6460. RUT 1426. VIX 10.05. The VIX LOD is 10.00 only one penny from a 9-handle.

At 11:30 AM EST, European stocks end the day lower. The DAX loses -0.2% to 12519. The CAC drops -0.2% to 5214. The London FTSE sinks -1.1% to 7215. The footsie is pounded by the higher pound. The ongoing terrorism in London and the Brexit drama do not help.

The MIB finishes the session down -0.2% to 22229. The IBEX loses -0.4% to 10317. The PSI is dead flat at 5201 testing its 50-day MA overhead resistance at 5210. Price will bounce or die from here next week. The trading week finishes on a sour note across the pond.

For the week, Germany’s DAX gains +1.8%. France’s CAC +2%. FTSE -2.2%. Italy’s MIB +2.1%. Spain’s IBEX ends the week +1.9% higher. Portugal’s PSI gains +2% this week. The European indexes are positive on the week except for the footsie that is kicked in the face by the rising sterling.

At 1 PM, the BHGE Oil Rig Count is down 7 oil rigs and down 1 natty gas rig. Canada brings 10 oil rigs on line. Oil prices leak slightly lower since the drop in US oil rigs is offset by Canada bringing rigs on line and the net count in North America is higher. WTIC oil 49.69. Brent oil 55.40.

Hillary Clinton, the loser in last November’s presidential election, is on another book tour continuing to blame everyone for her loss except herself. Democrats cringe and simply want her to go away. Clinton’s continuing negativity is dragging the Democrat Party down. Clinton proclaims that President Trump is a “clear and present danger” to the United States.

Clinton serves as a great example for teaching children about sore losers and the type of person that should not be used as a role model for kids. Instead of solving the country’s problems, the Washington, DC, politicians are divisive twerps only concerned about driving wedges between people as a means to garnish enough votes for reelection.

Courtney Fallon, 33 years old, is arrested by New York City police for vandalizing the iconic bull statue outside the New York Stock Exchange. Fallon dumps blue paint on the head of the bull statue because she is unhappy that the United States dropped out of the Paris Accord climate change agreement. Fallon is throwing her life away believing in sketchy and unproven climate change science (that used to be called global warning by those perpetuating the ‘hoax’).

Toys ‘R’ Us is going bankrupt. The toy seller was taken private 12 years ago with venture capital money from KKR and VNO. EFX sinks -3.8% with the Equifax debacle continuing.

Stocks move sideways during the afternoon the SPX oscillates through the tight 2497-2499 range. Volume picks up during the last hour of trading. The SPX is a hair from 2500 so it will likely print before the closing bell.

Chips are on fire to the upside. NVDA +6.3%. WDC +3.2%. STX +2.8%. AMD +2.1%. QRVO +2.7%. HSIC +3%. FOX +2.5%. T +2.1%. HRS +2.1%. EPZM +8%.

ORCL -7.7%. CCL -4.1%. MYL -2.6%. AGN -1.5%. TEVA -1.4%. BDX -1.1%. MELI -1.8%. CMCSA -1.8%. LILA -1.9%. WHR -1.9%. ONVO -6.2%.

The winners in the Dirty Thirty are BA, VZ, INTC, AAPL and AXP are up +1% or more. PFE -1%. V, GS, HD and IBM sink lower.

At 3 PM EST (4 AM Tokyo and Seoul Saturday morning), the UN Security Council meets to discuss the latest North Korea provocation. The United Nations condemns the provocative missile launch. The UN says all 193 member nations must implement the sanctions against North Korea immediately. The UN welcomes dialogue if it leads to a peaceful solution. NoKo tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un says he will continue the nuclear and missile programs thumbing his nose at the international community.

At 4:00 PM, US stocks finish at the highs with the S&P 500 printing and closing above 2500 for the first time in history. Strike up the band! Sound the Seven Trumpets! The Power and Majesty of the global central bankers is truly astounding and impressive. The central bankers are the market.

The SPX gains 5 points, +0.2%, to 2500.23 a new all-time closing high and new all-time intraday high. Price closes at the high. The newspaper and internet headline writers are joyful since “S&P 500 Prints 2500” will be pumped by the media this weekend. Traders are singing, “Happy Days Are Here Again.”

Volatility remains subdued verifying the ongoing market complacency and fearlessness. Everyone believes that the central bankers can paper over any problems that arise domestic or geopolitical. Over the last two days, the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios print low numbers hinting at rampant market complacency. The NYMO, McClellan Oscillator, remains at elevated levels where market pull backs tend to begin.

For now, however, into the weekend, Wall Street is one big party as Queen of the Doves Yellen, in collusion with other central bankers such as the Super Mario at the ECB and Happy Kuroda at the BOJ, flies above the New York Stock Exchange dropping money to the adoring and wealthy investors below.

The world is awash in liquidity for 8-1/2 years, created by the central bankers, sending all asset prices higher including stocks, bonds, real estate, art, collectables and antique cars. This behavior never ends well.

The INDU gains 64 points, +0.3%, to 22268.34 a new all-time closing high and 22275.02 a new all-time high. The COMPQ gains 19 points, +0.3%, to 6448 and intraday prints at 6464.27 a new all-time high taking out the 7/27/17 record. The NDX gains 19 points, +0.3%, to 5988 with a HOD at 6009.44 that is 17 pennies shy of the all-time record. The FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and GOOGL) stocks remain near record highs creating the glory in the Nazzy 100.

The RUT rallies 6.69 points, the market makers making sure the final print does not end up as 6.66, +0.5%, to 1432 the highest levels since late July. The NYA is up 18 points, +0.2%, to 12080.14 a new all-time closing high and 12080.68 a new all-time intraday record high. TRAN, or DJT, gains 36 points, +0.4%, to 9546. Traders will watch the trannies over the next couple weeks to see if a Dow Theory upside confirmation occurs with new record highs (verifying the record highs in the Dow Industrials), or not.

For the week, the S&P 500, SPX or GSPC, bounces +1.6% gapping higher on the week after the hurricane damage was not as extensive as thought last weekend and the tensions on the Korean Peninsula eased. Interestingly, floor traders are not donning “SPX 2500” caps although in fairness the print does not occur until the final minute in front of a weekend.

Many will say that the absence of widespread market euphoria over SPX 2500 proves that the stock market has far higher to go. The same pundits profess that since Joe Sixpack is not all-in to the stock market as yet so a major stock market top is nowhere in sight. On the other side of the ledger, excessive complacency may be in play, and perhaps more likely, when a huge historic milestone such as SPX 2500 prints (the S&P 500 is the most important stock index in the world) and is met with yawns.

The vast majority of market participants expect new record highs to continue unabated since the global central bankers collude to maintain easy monetary conditions. The wealthy and privileged elite class light cigars to celebrate their never-ending profit gains in the stock market dabbing the ashes on the huddled masses.

The lower middle class, poor and disadvantaged Americans do not own stocks and have not benefited from the 8-1/2 years of ongoing central banker easy money accommodation. Instead, the huddled masses continue struggling each day to make ends meet and find decent-paying jobs. America is the land of the have’s and have not’s. The divide between rich and poor, created by the Federal Reserve, is the widest in five decades.

For the week, the Dow Industrials, INDU or DJI, finish up +2.2% gapping higher to begin the week. The Nasdaq Composite, COMPQ or IXIC, gains +1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 Index, NDX, rallies +1.3% this week. The Russell 2000 small caps, RUT, rally +2.3% this week bouncing off the 20-week MA at 1403 a key bullish development.

The NYA gains +1.6% this week gapping higher to begin the week. The NYSE Composite successfully back-tests its 20-week MA at 11787 over the last month and uses this level as a springboard. The 20-week MA support levels are key when stocks roll over in the future. TRAN gaps higher this week gaining +1.7% over the last five days.

Five of the seven major stock indexes print new all-time record highs this week; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX and NYA. The July record highs in the RUT small caps are not surpassed. The trannies, TRAN, also lag.

The sectors finish mixed this week. The chips are kings led higher by NVDA. SOX +4.9%. Energy runs higher. XLE +3.6%. Retail stocks print a strong week. XRT +3.3%. RTH +2.4%. XLB +2.5%. XLI +2.1%. XLK +1.6%. XLP +0.9%. XLY +0.9%. XLRE +0.3%. Utilities lag. XLU -0.4%. UTIL -0.1%. IYT -0.8%. Trannies bring up the rear.

Telecoms are big winners this week with T leaping +4.2% and VZ +3.8%. The dip-buyers are tripping over each other to purchase these dividend producers. Mickey D’s prints the worst week of the year with MCD down -1.8%.

The ‘Elite 18’ stocks that have carried the stock market higher over the last few years finish the week generally higher. AAPL +0.8%. AMZN +2.2%. CELG +1.1%. CRM -1.9%. FB +0.4%. GE +1.5%. GOOGL -0.7%. HD -0.8%. MA +3.2%. MSFT +1.8%. NFLX +3.4%. NKE +3.2%. NVDA +10%. PCLN +0.3%. SBUX +2.2%. ULTA -1%. UAA +2.1%. V +0.8%.

NVIDIA is the standout gainer and remains the favorite flavor in the chip sector. The bulls are pumping the idea that the chip king will play a key role in artificial intelligence and a buying frenzy occurs. Investors are buying NVDA with total disregard for price.

Netflix prints a nice rally. The credit card companies MasterCard and Visa remain joyous as the stock charts move from the lower left to the upper right for the last few years. Salesforce, Alphabet, Home Depot and Ulta Beauty are the ugly losers on the week.

WTIC oil gains +5.1% this week to 49.89 trying to sneak above its 50-week MA at 47.39. Brent oil rallies +2.9% to 55.30 and broke above its 50-week MA at 52.14 two weeks ago so Brent is leading West Texas Intermediate crude. Natural gas, NATGAS, gains +4.6% to 3.02 fighting the resistance at the 20-week MA at 3.03.

Gold loses -1.9% this week to 1325 filling the gap from the gap-up move last week. Silver slips -2.3% to 17.70. Copper drops -3% to 2.95 adding to the prior week’s losses when copper topped out at 3.19 a three-year high.

The 10-year Treasury note yield, TNX, finishes the week at 2.20% sitting at its critical 200-week MA support/resistance at 2.21%. Yield fell through the 200-week moving average a month ago and now comes up for the back kiss. The 10-year yield will bounce or die from this 2.20%-2.21% level next week. The 10-year yield dropped to 2.01% last week and then rockets 22 basis points higher this week to 2.23%. Next week will be a critical time for the 10-year yield as it decides which way to pivot from 2.21%.

The US dollar index is up marginally this week at 91.65 retreating from the high at 92.51 printed intraweek. The euro is at 1.19 after traveling through the 1.1838-1.2006 range this week.

After the closing bell, the UK raises the terror threat from severe to critical the highest level. Severe means another terror attack is expected. Londoners are nervous this evening. The bomb at the London train station was in a five-gallon (19 liters) bucket that was set inside a large shopping bag.

The explosive is TATP (triacetone triperoxide) the favorite choice of radical Islamic terrorists. TATP can be made from acetone (nail polish) and bleach so the ingredients are readily available. The explosive does not contain nitrogen so the detection scanners at airports cannot identify TATP. The explosive is unstable and unpredictable. Heat, friction or shock can detonate TATP.

The “bucket bomber” remains at large and authorities are scouring videotape to identify the nutcase. The Islamic State takes responsibility for the bombing but they would regardless of whether they were involved or not.

London has the most cameras spying on citizens of any major city on earth. Londoners have given up their privacy and liberty to be under surveillance 24/7. The cameras did not prevent the terrorist attack and may not even aid police in finding the bucket bomber. Londoners gladly gave up their liberty for perceived security that does not exist.

Hopefully, US cities will not make the mistakes of London, Paris, Brussels and other European cities in regards to handling terrorism and immigration. The large migrant population is interspersed with ISIS followers and other radical Islamists. London and Paris allow cloistered Muslim communities to exist within cities that protect the radicals conducting the terror attacks. At the same time, these cities prevent honest citizens from owning firearms. During the recent terror attacks in Europe, without any recourse to fight back, the victims simply wait to be shot in the head.

Protests are becoming unruly this evening in St Louis, Missouri, USA, after a former policeman is acquitted on charges of first degree murder for shooting a black man that was dealing dope in a gas station parking lot. Demonstrators are blocking roadways in St Louis. Protestors surround Mayor Lyda Krewson’s house and throw bricks through two windows. The social unrest becomes violent with nine police officers injured. The city library and several restaurants are damaged. Riot police disperse the crowd with tear gas.

When the economic recession hits in America, the already struggling huddled masses will protest and become violent and mansions of CEO’s and politicians will be targeted like the St Louis mayor’s residence this evening. Social unrest has increased under former President Obama’s watch which is sad because the first black president was expected to ease racial tensions. Instead, Obama drove wedges between ethnic and racial groups (whites, blacks, Hispanics) and fanned the flames of racial discourse and violence in America.

Monday, September 4, 2017

SUNDAY 9/3/17; North Korea Tests H-Bomb; German Election Debate

Ba-boom. A 6.3 magnitude earthquake occurs in northern North Korea near an underground nuclear testing facility. Buildings are shaking and windows rattling in China and Russia. China strongly condemns North Korea. That is a joke. The Beijing commie leaders are liars. They are the one providing equipment and parts to aid North Korea’s missile and nuclear program. In addition, China is not cutting off trade to NoKo as they proclaim. Convoys of trucks loaded with supplies and goods continue to cross the Chinese border into North Korea 24/7. Never trust a communist.

North Korea says it can miniaturize a nuclear device and attach it to an ICBM that can reach the United States. North Korea’s build-up occurs under republican President George W Bush and democrat President Barack Obama. Both president’s kept their heads in the sand allowing North Korea to develop dangerous missiles and nuclear devices over the last decade.

The United States military immediately deploys sniffer aircraft to see if any nuclear particles are detected in the upper atmosphere. The wind, however, is blowing north towards Russia and China which creates challenges for air reconnaissance. A smaller explosion occurs at 4.3 in northern North Korea and may be the infrastructure of the test facility collapsing in on itself after the huge detonation.

North Korea conducts its sixth nuke test since 2006. The previous test occurred late last year which created a 5.3 magnitude quake. Each one point increment in the earthquake scale is equivalent to an event that is 10 times more powerful. Thus, NoKo’s H-bomb test this morning is at least 10 times stronger than the atomic A-bomb test last year.

Tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un slaps President Trump in the face ignoring the US threats of overwhelming military force if North Korea does not cease its aggressive missile and nuclear programs. It is more talk, talk, talk from the United States. Trump drew a line in the sand but North Korea is kicking the sand in his face. How will the president react?

President Trump tweets about the North Korea H-bomb test. Trump says; “The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.” Of course this action is a direct shot across the bow at China which accounts for 90% of the total NoKo trade.

Last week, the United States announced an investigation into Sinopec, the Chinese integrated oil giant for potential trade violations. This was a measure taken to force China into helping solve the North Korea crisis. Instead, China announces an investigation into Apple for possible trade violations in a tit-for-tat response. The United States says it has plans to further sanction China in light of this morning’s H-bomb test in North Korea. The actions and rhetoric is very reminiscent of the trade wars and protectionism that extended the Great Depression in the 1930’s.

Trump says; “North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.” This tweet is another slap to President Xi’s face. Trump tweets; “….they do nothing for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!”

Xi does not want to look weak ahead of the People’s Congress starting 10/18/17 and will not be pleased with the comments from President Trump especially the word “embarrassment.” Tough luck. Xi needs slapped around for his lies about helping resolve the North Korea problem when behind the scenes he fuels the trouble.

The communist and rogue nations such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea stick together while the Western nations such as the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea, other Asia allies and Europe reinforce their ties. The nations face off and choose sides as if WW III was on the come.

Secretary of State James “Mad Dog” Mattis says all options including military action are on the table to handle North Korea. Mattis says, “We are not looking at the total inhalation of North Korea.” In other words, Mattis is telling NoKo to stop causing trouble because if a mistake is made or if South Korea, Japan or other allies are attacked, the US will wipe North Korea off the map. Tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un is smart enough to understand this fact. The geopolitical dance between the US, China and NoKo continues.

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen into a CAT 3 in the Atlantic Ocean heading for Puerto Rico and Cuba. The models indicate that the storm may hit Florida although there is a greater chance the storm will roll north and out to sea. The storm is expected to strengthen to a CAT 5 so there may be more turmoil ahead for the US next weekend. The track of Hurricane Irma will be identified Wednesday through Friday.

German Chancellor Merkel and opponent Martin Schulz square-off in a televised debate as the 9/24/17 election approaches. The one and only debate is viewed as a tie. Both politicians are mechanical in their responses and non charismatic. Schulz is viewed as doing a little better than expected, however, at a 15% deficit in the polls, a couple percent improvement is not going to matter. Merkel is on her way to a reelection victory three Sunday’s from now.

Euro 1.1879. Dollar/yen 109.66. Pound 1.2952.

WTIC oil 47.29. Brent oil 52.72. Natty gas 3.07. Gold 1330. Silver 17.82. Copper 3.12.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.35%, 5-year 1.74%, 10-year 2.1666%, 30-year 2.775%. German bund 0.385%. Japan 10-year yield -0.006%.

August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, APPL, MSFT and BSE (India) Record Highs; Hurricane Harvey Slams Texas Oil Refineries; Total Solar Eclipse; Bitcoin 5000; North Korea Turmoil; Trump Threatens NoKo with Fire and Fury; Barcelona Terrorism; USD 91-Handle; Euro 1.20; Jackson Hole; US-China Trade War Simmers; Trump Threatens Government Shutdown; Amazon Food Wars Begin

The August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

August Cover Highlights;

The August chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex ran above 32K last month into early this month. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone.

The US dollar index and euro print big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro moves briefly above 1.20 with the USD printing lower with a 91-handle. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with over 15 key personnel changes occurring after only seven months an unprecedented revolving door. Advisors Stephen Bannon and Sebastian Gorka are shown the door in August. The Russia and other investigations continue. President Trump is threatening North Korea with fire and fury unless tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un ceases the missile and nuclear programs. Trump also threatens Congress with a government shutdown unless they include funding for the southern border wall.

US and China keep poking each other in the eye with long sticks as a trade war simmers. Barcelona is rocked by Islamic terrorism. Bitcoin tags 5000 as September begins. Money from China, Japan, India and Turkey chase the digital currency higher. The Jackson Hole Economic Forum takes place in Wyoming but did not live up to its ype. Amazon begins food price wars that rock the grocers and food makers. The epic market action continues as the global central bankers collude daily to maintain elevated stock prices.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The September 2017-09 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/30/17.

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Saturday, September 2, 2017

SATURDAY 9/2/17; Bitcoin Above 5K

SPX 2477. INDU 21988. COMPQ 6435 (all-time record high). RUT 1414. NIKK 19691. SPASX200 5725. KOSPI 2358. SSEC 3367. HSI 27953. BSE 31892. DAX 12143. CAC 5123. FTSE 7439. MIB 21859. IBEX 10326. PSI 5195.

Bitcoin tags the 5000 milestone at 

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Thursday, August 31, 2017

FRIDAY 9/1/17; Global PMI Data; US Monthly Jobs Report; Weak Wage Growth; ECB Announces No Plan to End QE; ISM Mfg Index; Consumer Sentiment; INDU (Dow Industrials) Above 22K; COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) and NDX (Nasdaq 100) All-Time Record Highs; NDX Above 6000; AAPL (Apple) All-Time Record High

Today is the first trading day of September and the month will mark the end of Q3. US stocks are buoyant Wednesday and Thursday as traders anticipate the three-day holiday weekend. Trading volume may be light today. Of course the US jobs report will create drama.

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the stock market is in a major topping process. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so the money starts to be put towards silly, goofy, trendy and unwise investments. The central bankers have created a sick financial world.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

THURSDAY 8/31/17; EOM (End-of-Month); China PMI Data; Euro Area Inflation Data; Challenger Job-Cut Report; CPB; CIEN; DG; LE; TITN; PCE Inflation Data; AAPL (Apple) Prints Record High; Chicago PMI; Bitcoin Record High Above 4800; COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) and NDX (Nasdaq 100) Print All-Time Closing Highs; AMBA; COO; LULU; PANW

Today is the final day of trading for August. The monthly charts receive 

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 chip darling AMBA crashes -10%. Ambarella supplies the chips used in GoPro cameras and on drones. GPRO trades marginally lower. COO -1.1%. LULU stretches +5% higher on earnings. PANW +6%. NTNX +4%.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

WEDNESDAY 8/30/17; Bitcoin Prints New Record High Above 4700; Hong Kong Hang Seng (HSI) Index Above 28K; ADI; BOBE; CHS; GLNG; VRA; ADP Employment Report; US Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Prints +3.0%; VIX Drops to 10-Handle; President Trump Speaks on Tax Reform; Euro Retreats from 1.20 to 1.18; AAPL (Apple) Prints Record High; BOX; CTRP; FIVE; WDAY

The euro is back under 1.20 at 1.1972. Euro/yen 131.29. Dollar/yen 109.66. 

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BOX is laying in a box after losing -3.1% on earnings. CTRP +0.1%. FIVE -0.9%. WDAY flat. Shoe Carnival is a party in the afterhours with SCVL racing +13.5% higher on earnings.

Monday, August 28, 2017

TUESDAY 8/29/17; North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan; Euro Above 1.20; US Dollar Prints 91-Handle; Gold Rallies; Yield Curve Flattens with 2-10 Spread Dropping to 78 Bips; VIX Prints Above 14; Bitcoin Prints New Record High at 4653; BBY; HAIN; Consumer Confidence; Utilities Print Record Highs; US Stocks Print Dramatic Turnaround to Upside; AVAV; HRB

At 6: 10 AM Tokyo time (7:10 AM Sydney, Australia; 5:10 PM EST Monday evening), Japanese news agency NHK says a missile is heading towards northern Japan. The projectile is launched from 

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are a robust draw down of 5.8 million barrels blowing away the expectation for a 1.8 million bbl draw down. Gasoline Inventories are a build and Distillates are a draw. WTIC oil 46.39. Brent oil 51.98.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

MONDAY 8/28/17; Hurricane Harvey Devastates Texas; Gasoline Pops +7%; Yield Curve Flattens with 2-10 Spread Dropping to 82 Bips; International Trade Data; 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auctions; WTIC Oil Slips -3%; North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan

Flood waters continue rising in Texas and Louisiana the oil hub of the United States. NYMEX gasoline futures are up +6.4%. Oil prices experience a 

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 a missile is heading towards northern Japan. The projectile is believed to be launched from North Korea missile and it flies over Japan. Little tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un is rattling his saber. USD 92.23. Gold 1316. GLD is up +0.7%. GDX +0.6%.

SUNDAY 8/27/17; Hurricane Harvey Wreaks Havoc in Texas

Hurricane Harvey was downgraded yesterday to a 

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 remains negative as investors continue tripping over each other gladly willing to pay for the privilege of parking their money in the Alps. South Korea, the US, Singapore and Italy are at the same general 10-year yield level.

Friday, August 25, 2017

SATURDAY 8/26/17; Hurricane Harvey Hits Texas; Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Ends

SPX (broad stock market) 2443. INDU (Dow blue-chips) 21814. COMPQ (tech-heavy) 6266. RUT (small caps) 1377. NIKK (Japan) 19453. ASX 200 (Australia) 5744. KOSPI (South Korea) 2379. SSEC (China) 3332. HSI (Hong Kong) 27848. BSE (India) 31596. DAX (Germany) 12168. CAC (France) 5104. FTSE (UK) 7401. MIB (Italy) 21747. IBEX (Spain) 10345. PSI (Portugal) 5166.

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The death toll is expected to rise. Power outages are rampant and flood waters are moving higher as the rain will continue for several days.

FRIDAY 8/25/17; Yield Curve Flattens with 2-10 Spread Dropping to 83 Bips; Hurricane Harvey Hits Texas Oil Coast; Durable Goods; Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi Speak; Euro Above 1.19

Aussie and Asia indexes begin trading flat and mixed. NIKK +0.3%. Topix +0.1%. The financials and brokers are leading higher in Japan. ASX 200 is marginally 

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Gasoline prices around the US will rise from this weekend forward. Higher gasoline prices deter consumer spending.

THURSDAY 8/24/17; Yield Curve Flattens with 2-10 Spread Dropping to 85 Bips; SAFM; DLTR; ANF; BURL; TIF; SIG; SPLS; TTC; MIK; HRL; SJM; SDRL; Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Begins; Existing Home Sales; AVGO; BRCD; ADSK; VMW; ULTA; GME; MRVL; SPLK

Aussie and Asia indexes begin trading flat and mixed. NIKK -0.3%. Topix -0.2%. ASX 200 -0.1%. Santos gains +1.7% after posting a loss. Copper producer Oz Minerals rises +2.1% on earnings. Australia’s Flight 

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Symposium officially kicks off with the opening reception and dinner at 6 PM local MST time (8 PM EST; 1 AM London Friday morning; 2 AM Paris and Frankfurt Friday morning; 9 PM Tokyo). Kansas City Federal Reserve President and Chief Executive Officer Esther George, a hawk, hosts the event.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

WEDNESDAY 8/23/17; President Trump Threatens Government Shutdown; ECB President Draghi Speaks; LOW; AEO; PMI Indexes; New Home Sales; Yield Curve Flattens with 2-10 Spread Dropping to 86 Bips; Samsung Note 8 Smartphone Launch; HPQ; GES; PVH; WSM

US futures are flat ahead of a speech by President Trump in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, on Tuesday evening. S&P flat. Dow +2. Nasdaq +2.

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Economic bigwigs, central bankers, investment bankers, academics, reporters and journalists begin arriving in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Economic Policy Symposium. Attendees will continue arriving tomorrow and mingle during the day. The opening reception and dinner takes place at 6 PM local MST time (8 PM EST) tomorrow night.