Friday, October 30, 2015

SATURDAY 10/31/15; Halloween

SPX 2079. INDU 17664. COMPQ 5054. RUT 1162. DAX 10850. CAC 4898. FTSE 6361. MIB 22443. IBEX 10361. PSI 5469. NIKK 19083. SPASX200 5239. KOSPI 2029. SSEC 3383. HSI 22640. BSE 26657.

Happy Halloween; All Saints Day. Pray for the faithfully departed; pray for the world.

A Russian passenger plane 

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not move with a hike until February 2016 or later.

Daylight Saving Time change occurs in the United States overnight tonight so the five-hour time difference with the East Coast and London stock exchanges and six-hours between Central Europe will be back in place next week.

FRIDAY 10/30/15; Halloween Eve; EOM (End of Month); Japan Rate Decision; ABBV; CVX; XOM; CL; COL; CVS; ETN; MCO; NWL; PSX; STX; SWC; WY; Personal Income and Outlays; Employment Cost Index; Chicago PMI; Consumer Sentiment; US Deploys Troops in Syria

The ASX 200 trades down -0.6% to begin global trading for Friday. Aussie dollar 0.7081. The Nikkei Index futures point to a slightly higher open. Dollar/yen 120.99.

Japan jobless rate is 3.4% in line with the 3.4% expected. Japan national CPI is down -0.1% better than the -0.2% expected. Ex food and energy CPI is up +0.9% versus the +0.9% expected and above last month’s +0.8%. The data is 

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 electronic communications via computers, laptops, smartphones and other electronics are monitored, recorded and archived by the US government. The only way that a private conversation can take place in this modern world is if the discussion takes place face-to-face with all electronic gadgets especially cell phones at least three feet (1 meter) away. George Orwell’s “Big Brother” government, described in his book, 1984, occurs.

Thursday, October 29, 2015


Asian indexes are mixed a couple hours into trading. The NIKK is down, KOSPI up and ASX 200 down -0.5%. Chinese stocks are trading marginally higher. US futures are negative. S&P -4. Dow -36. Nasdaq -10. Euro 1.0924. Dollar/yen 120.74. Pound 1.5265. Aussie dollar 0.7109. Dollar/yuan 6.3589.

WTIC oil 45.82. Brent oil 48.92. Natty gas 2.30. Gold 1162. Silver 15.96. Copper is down -0.4% to 2.352.

US Treasury yields are

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HRL recalls 153 cases of Skippy peanut butter jars due to potential metal shavings contamination. A Boeing 767 catches fire as it taxis for takeoff in Florida. Over 100 passengers are evacuated with 15 people injured one in serious condition. BA stock does not react in the afterhours.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015


Asian trading is  underway with the SPASX200 marginally lower, the NIKK up +0.4% and the KOSPI down -0.4%. Japan retail sales are 

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television sponsors a debate for the republican candidates for POTUS in Boulder, Colorado. The network is criticized for its “gotcha” questions designed to encourage arguments to increase television ratings rather than promoting substantive dialogue. Young Marco Rubio wins the debate and will receive higher poll numbers.

Monday, October 26, 2015

TUESDAY 10/27/15; Natural Gas 1-Handle; BABA; BTU; COH; CNX; DD; F; GRUB; HUN; IR; JBLU; MAS; MRK; PFE; SPG; TMUS; UHS; UPS; Durable Goods; FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins; US PMI Services; Consumer Confidence; AAPL; AKAM; EIX; GILD; TWTR

Australia stocks are trading flat to lower to kick off Tuesday’s global trading. Aussie dollar 0.7244. New Zealand stocks begin trading after the holiday playing catch-up with the main index gaining +0.4%. Nikkei Index futures point to a +0.5% open. US futures are flat. S&P +1. Dow +8. Nasdaq +3.

Euro 1.1058. Dollar/yen 121.04. Pound 1.5349. WTIC oil 43.88. Brent oil 47.54.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.64%, 5-year 1.39%, 10-year 2.06%, 30-year 2.87%. German bund 0.502%. Japan 10-year yield 0.313%.

Asian indexes are negative a couple hours into trading. The global stock rally created by the Fed, ECB and PBOC central banker collusion is 

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 teen demographic preference in social media is Instagram as the top platform, then TWTR, then Snapchat then FB. Facebook does not care that it is the fourth preference by teens since it owns Instagram the current favorite of the teeny-bopper generation.

MONDAY 10/26/15; NIKK 19K; LH; XRX; New Home Sales; Natural Gas Collapses; HIG; CROX; PCL; PMCS; SWFT

The five-year China planning meeting is 

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a United States destroyer plans to sail within 12 miles of the disputed Spratley Islands in the South China Sea. China has constructed a large military base and landing strip on the islands. Several Asian nations claim ownership to the islands. Tensions ratchet higher between the US and China in the South China Sea. China wants to limit aircraft and ships in the area. The United States is rattling its saber as the Chinese leaders continue meeting to develop their five-year plan.

SUNDAY 10/25/15; China Meets for 5-Year Plan; Temple Mount Unrest

The Beijing communists meet to 

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In the States, rains and flooding hit Texas as the remnants from Hurricane Patricia travel across northern Mexico and the south-central US. Business and commerce will be hampered in the Lone Star State for the next week. Authorities are assessing crop damage.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

SATURDAY 10/24/15

SPX 2075. INDU 17647. COMPQ 5032. RUT 1166. DAX 10795. CAC 4924. FTSE 6444. MIB 22737. IBEX 10476. PSI 5423. NIKK 18825. SPASX200 3413. KOSPI 2040. SSEC 3413. HSI 23152. BSE 27471.

Euro 1.1017. Dollar/yen 121.45. In one day’s time the dollar/yen pair ran from under 120.40 to 121.45 over one full point. The USD catapulted from under 95 late last week to above 97 after the ECB’s dovishness sent the 

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 only 100 days until the first primary votes are cast in Iowa when the race becomes very serious. The countdown begins.

On the Fox business block of television shows, the bullish recommendations continue. Gary B Smith says AMZN will be up over +50% within two years. John Layfield says oil giant CVX will be up +20% within the next year. Jonas Max Ferris says LULU will rise +25% over the next year. Charles Payne suggests buying WHR. Adam Lashinsky suggests buying VO. Ben Stein and Elizabeth McDonald continue to suggest buying dividend ETF’s and funds proclaiming SDY and LCEIX, respectively, as winners going forward. SDY is back to flat on the year after losing -10% during the August selloff. MSGN is another recommendation. The future is so bright that you have to wear shades.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

FRIDAY 10/23/15; Cascading Global Rally Continues; Euro 1.09-Handle; Global PMI’s; AAL; PG; STT; WHR; China Cuts Rates Further Fueling the Stock Market Rally

Euro 1.1101. The euro prints a 1.10 handle a short time ago and drops from 1.14 in only a couple days time due to ECB President Draghi’s dovish monetary policy. Dollar/yen 120.70. Pound 1.5391. Thailand markets are 

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 Hurricane Patricia begins hitting the Mexican west coast. Heavy rains will ripple through Texas creating floods. Boom. The CAT 5 storm hits landfall at 7:08 PM EST with winds as high as 220 MPH (354 KPH). Mexicans and tourists brace for the worst.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

THURSDAY 10/22/15; ECB Rate Decision and President Draghi Press Conference; European and US Stocks Rally on Draghi Dovish Comments; MMM; CAT; CY; DHR; DOW; DPS; DNKN; LLY; FCX; MCD; NUE; RS; RTN; R; LUV; SWK; UA; UAL; UNP; USG; Existing Home Sales; GOOGL; T; JNPR; MSFT; PHM

At 8:15 AM Tokyo (7:15 AM Hong Kong and Shanghai; 7:15 PM EST Wednesday evening in the States), US futures are flat. S&P +2. Dow -3. Nasdaq +6.

Euro 1.1341. Dollar/yen 119.90. Pound 1.5418. Aussie dollar 0.7212. WTIC oil 45.28. Brent oil 47.85. Natty gas 2.41. Gold 1167. Silver 15.69. Copper 2.3585.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.62%, 5-year 1.35%, 10-year 2.02%, 30-year 2.86%. The 2-10 spread is 140 bips threatening a 139 handle which represents a flattening yield curve. German bund 0.569%. Japan 10-year yield 0.317%.

Weak commodity and mining stocks create a 

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In Iraq, A US soldier is killed during a raid against ISIS Islamist radicals that frees 70 prisoners many are Iraqi soldiers believed to be in imminent danger. The United States suffers the first combat death in Iraq in four years. President Obama’s war against ISIS sheds American blood.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

WEDNESDAY 10/21/15; Japan Trade Data; China Mini-Crash; China's Sinosteel Misses Bond Payment; BHI; BA; KO; EMC; GM; ITW; KMB; MAN; OC; UNF; RACE (Ferrari) IPO; VRX Crashes; AXP; EBAY; FTK; LVS; TXN; TSCO; WFT; URI

S&P futures -3. Dow -7. Nasdaq -29. Euro 1.134. USD 94.86. Dollar/yen 119.79. Pound 1.5443.  WTIC oil 45.94. Brent oil 48.52. Natural gas 2.49. Gold 1176. Silver 15.88. Copper 2.362.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.633%, 5-year 1.39%, 10-year 2.069%, 30-year 2.914%. German bund 0.636%. Japan 10-year yield 0.325%.

At 8:35 AM Tokyo (7:35 PM EST Tuesday evening in the States), US futures are flat. Euro 1.1352. Dollar/yen 119.82. Pound 1.5446. USD 94.913. WTIC oil 45.93. Brent oil 48.71.

The SPASX200 is trading down -0.5% to kick off Wednesday trading. Aussie miners are beginning the day 

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US and Allies are requesting action by the UN to address Iran’s testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The ink is barely dry on the Iran nuclear agreement and the radical Islamists are testing missiles that can be fitted with nuclear warheads.

Monday, October 19, 2015

TUESDAY 10/20/15; Trudeau Wins Canada Election; ATI; BK; FITB; RF; HOG; LMT; TRV; UTX; VZ; Housing Starts; CMG; DFS; PKG; VMW; WERN; YHOO

The ASX 200 is down -0.3% to begin Tuesday trading with oil and energy stocks creating a drag. Nikkei futures indicate a robust upside open in excess of +1%. United Continental names Brett J Hart as acting CEO for the airline after Oscar Munoz remains in the hospital following a heart attack. UAL is down -0.3% in late 

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 packaging king PKG misses on the top and bottom lines. Cardboard, containerboard and corrugated packaging products are a key bellwether since a robust and dynamic economy requires shipping of products, parts, contracts and raw materials. Soft cardboard and packaging materials sales indicate a soft economy.

FedEx and United Parcel Service stocks have been in a downtrend since the May top in markets. The UPS 20/50-week MA cross is a valuable indicator of whether the stock market is in a cyclical bull or bear pattern. The UPS 20-week MA is under the 50-week MA signaling an ongoing cyclical bear market for stocks, however, UPS price has recovered lately and the 20-week may cross back above the 50 in the weeks ahead.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

MONDAY 10/19/15; China GDP; Canada Elections; GPC; HAL; HAS; MS; CBI; IBM; STLD; ZION

Global traders are fixated on China GDP to begin the new week of trading. The potential reaction to the data is an unknown. If China growth drops under +7%, which will clearly verify the weakening economy, will the Shanghai and Hang Seng Index’s instead catapult higher  anticipating more PBOC stimulus (bad news is good news)?

China GDP is expected to come in at +6.8%, a six-handle, versus the +7.0% from Q2. The central bankers have created a cynical market. If one were a betting man, and knowing that China massages their economic data even more than the US, the GDP will likely come in at +6.9%, under the +7% level to reflect the slowing economy that everyone realizes, while at the same time beating consensus at +6.8% and meeting the top end of the +6.4%-+6.9% consensus range. A +6.9% GDP would be the Goldilocks number if the Beijing communists pick the most favorable outcome to try and stabilize markets.

As Monday morning begins in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and Sunday evening continues in the States, futures are flat. S&P -1. Dow -7. Nasdaq +1. The ASX 200 begins trading flat. The Nikkei futures are indicating a soft open down about -0.5%.

Euro 1.1353. Dollar/yen 119.39. Pound 1.5437. Aussie dollar 0.7264. Mexican peso 16.4054. Canadian dollar is 1.2916 with Canada elections on tap today. Dollar/yuan 6.3538.

WTIC oil 47.47. Brent oil 50.68. Natty gas is up +1.1% to 2.46. Gold 1176. Silver 16.00. Copper 2.4060.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.61%, 5-year 1.35%, 10-year 2.03%, 30-year 2.88%. The 2-10 spread is 142 bips.

At 9:30 AM Tokyo (8:30 AM Shanghai and Hong Kong; 8:30 PM EST Sunday evening), S&P -3. Dow -25. Nasdaq -6. The KOSPI is trading marginally lower along with the NIKK and ASX 200. US Treasury yields drop one basis point across the yield curve; 10-year yield 2.02%.

South Korea retail sales are 

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For Q3 earnings season so far, over 70% of companies have beat on the bottom line EPS, however, less than 50% have beaten on top line revenue.

China President Xi and his wife land in London and the communist is given the red carpet treatment. UK PM Cameron says a “Golden Era” of Chinese-Britain relations begins. Western nations line up one after another to kiss the communist’s ring.

SUNDAY 10/18/15

Sauidi bombing raids in Yemen targeting the radical Houthi rebels accidentally kill 20 pro-government fighters and wound 

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AMZN stock remains on fire at record highs at 571, however, weekly and monthly charts are negatively diverging suggesting that Amazon is about to make an epic multi-year top probably before year end. The party at Amazon is likely ending and 2016 may be a year of reckoning for CEO Jeff Bezos if the charts play out as indicated.

Friday, October 16, 2015

SATURDAY 10/17/15

SPX 2033. INDU 17216. COMPQ 4887. RUT 1162. DAX 10104. CAC 4703. FTSE 6378. MIB 22338. IBEX 10232. PSI 5388. NIKK 18292. SPASX200 5268. KOSPI 2030. SSEC 3391. HSI 23067. BSE 27215.

Euro 1.1345. Dollar/yen 119.42. Pound 1.5439. USD 94.72. WTIC crude oil 47.26. Brent oil 50.46. Natural gas 2.427. Gold 1177. Silver 16.03. Copper 2.401.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.613%, 5-year 1.35%, 10-year 2.035%, 30-year 2.88%. German bund 0.549%. Japan 10-year yield 0.32%.

Violence intensifies in Israel. Palestinian knife attackers are 

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the last flight that takes place under the US Airways banner. US Air and American Airlines, AAL, merged in 2013. All fights will fly under the American Airlines banner here forward. Frequent traveler miles programs have been merged. The 1939 flight number was chosen since it was the first year that US Airways was formed (76 years ago). US Air had its main hub in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for decades; the airline began as All American Aviation then Allegheny Airlines then US Air.

FRIDAY 10/16/15; Cascading Global Rally Continues; OpEx; GE; HON; STI; Industrial Production; Consumer Sentiment

After a couple hours of trading in Australia and Asia, the ASX 200 is up +1%, the NIKK is up +1.4% and KOSPI prints marginal gains. The cascading global rally continues as traders expect the Fed, BOJ, PBOC and ECB to keep goosing stock markets higher with easy money.

S&P futures -1. Dow +3. Nasdaq +1. Euro 1.1367. Dollar/yen 119.18. Pound 1.5463. Aussie dollar 0.7304. Dollar/yuan 6.3490. USD 94.56.

The US dollar index prints a death cross chart pattern (50-day MA down through the 200-day MA) yesterday and conversely the euro is in a golden cross pattern (50 above the 200). The patterns suggest that 

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The US Interior Department, under the cover of Friday night darkness, announces plans to cancel all future lease sales in the Arctic and sections of Alaska and will not renew current leases. President Obama clearly does not want to see the oil companies pursue offshore drilling activities in the Arctic.

THURSDAY 10/15/15; GS; C; CPI (Consumer Price Index); Empire State Mfg Index; Philly Fed Survey; Fed is Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until 2016 Creating Cascading Global Rally; US Dollar Index Prints a Death Cross; SLB; AMD

The SPASX200 begins trading marginally higher. BOK (Bank of Korea) and BI (Bank of Indonesia) are providing rate decisions today.

US futures are higher and gaining upside on the Jon Hilsenrath article in the WSJ that concludes that the Fed will wait until 2016 to hike rates. Hilsenrath is considered to have the inside track on Fed thinking so traders are bidding up the stock and futures markets since easy money will continue for the next few months. S&P +4. Dow +17. Nasdaq +31.

Euro 1.1477. ECB President Draghi has to be losing sleep over the higher euro. Dollar/yen 118.71 under the 119 level. Pound 1.5475. Aussie dollar 0.7320. USD 93.98.

WTIC oil 46.27. Brent oil 49.15. Natural gas 2.54. Gold 1186. Silver 16.18. Copper 2.4175.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.56%, 5-year 1.28%, 10-year 1.98%, 30-year 2.84%. The 2-10 spread is 142 bips. German bund 0.546%. Japan 10-year bond 0.308%.

The NIKK is up +0.8% in the early going. The KOSPI gains +0.8% and Aussie stocks build on earlier gains. ASX 200 +0.5%. Euro 1.1467. Dollar/yen 119.07. WTIC oil 46.43. Gold 1184. US 10-year yield 1.99%.

Chinese and Hong Kong indexes begin the session moving higher and Asia stocks develop an optimistic tone. The weak data in China and the US hints that the PBOC will have to provide more stimulus. Bad news is good news and the central banker easy money will pump stock markets higher. China says money supply has 

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Fed’s Mester, a hawk, continues to state the case for a rate hike. Market participants, however, have already written off a hike until 2016 and this is evidenced by the robust global stock market rally the last couple days. She says delaying the first rate hike may create risks to the economy and markets. Mester’s hawkish comments fall on deaf ears.

Notable market technician Louise Yamada says stock market rallies should be sold going forward. Market leaders are underperforming during the recent relief rally. Yamada says evidence is mounting that a long term top is in place and other indicators are on a classic sell signal. Yamada is a very talented technician but failed to warn of the market top resulting in a -10% to -60% initial haircut in stocks.

The Keystone Speculator is the only Wall Street analyst that accurately described the market top forming this year using chart divergence techniques. Loyal followers of the KE Stone family of blogs and this daily chronology were fully prepared and ready for the rollover. Keystone warned of the market top during the spring and summer since the monthly charts for the major indexes have printed negative divergence with overbot conditions and rising wedge patterns. This is a key piece of evidence that easily foretold the top in the stock market.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

WEDNESDAY 10/14/15; China CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index); DAL; BAC; WFC; US PPI; Retail Sales; Business Inventories; WMT Collapses After Cutting Outlook; US 10-Year Treasury Yield Under 2%; Beige Book; NFLX

Australia stocks begin the session lower. Ditto the other Asian indexes. China September CPI (Consumer Price Index) is up +1.6% year-on-year less than the +1.8% expected and below the prior month’s +2%. China PPI (Producer Price Index) is down -5.9% exactly in line with the estimates and the prior month. The PPI is negative every month for nearly four years. Deflation risks linger in China.

A couple of hours into Asia trading, as the democrat debates finish in the States on Tuesday evening, the ASX 200 is down -0.6%. KOSPI off -0.8% and NIKK down -1.7%. The Nikkei Index is under 18K. Komatsu bulldozes itself -4% lower. Nikon loses more than -5% on slumping camera sales. Japanese car makers trade higher.

In China, the SSEC is down marginally -0.2% and in Hong Kong, the HSI loses -0.7%. Singapore GDP is better than expected so the economy narrowly avoids recession. The Singapore central bank eases monetary policy but

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Netflix is on a conference call. XLNX jumps +3.1% after beating by a penny on EPS and guiding higher. Tesla announces an auto-pilot feature for its cars which is met with yawns. TSLA +0.2%.

Treasury Secretary Lew says the United States will run out of money in early November unless Congress raises the debt ceiling limit. The heat in the Washington, DC, kitchen is only getting hotter.

WSJ journalist Jon Hilsenrath releases an article titled, “Fed Doubts Grow on 2015 Rate Hike.” The article is important since Hilsenrath is considered by many market participants as a mouthpiece of the Fed. Hilsenrath always appears to have insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking that others do not. Hilsenrath cites weak economic data and activity likely pushing the first rate hike into 2016 therefore the party begins.

Hilsenrath has signaled the all-clear. US futures are buoyant and rising. Asia and Europe trading should be positive. The easy money will continue well into 2016 so traders will buy stocks tomorrow. The central bankers are the market. The Fed saves the day!

TUESDAY 10/13/15; China Trade Data; Swiss Impose New Banking Rules; Global Deflation Persists; JNJ; Biotechs Bashed; Bank Earnings Begin; JPM; INTC; CSX

Asian indexes begin trading mixed with the ASX down -0.2% and New Zealand stocks are up +0.5% extending a couple-day rally. Aussie dollar 0.7359. Dollar/yen 120.02. Nikkei Index futures point to a lower open for the NIKK after yesterday’s holiday. US futures are flat. S&P -1. Dow -2. Nasdaq -3. Global traders are focused on the imminent China trade data.

Euro 1.1357. Dollar/yen 120.03. Pound 1.5342. Aussie dollar 0.7360. Dollar/yuan 6.3235. WTIC oil 47.60. Brent oil 49.86. Natural gas 2.54. Gold 1163. Silver 15.82. Copper 2.4130.

The US bond market will be trading today after the Columbus holiday yesterday. Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.64%, 5-year 1.40%, 10-year 2.09%, 30-year 2.92%. The 2-10 spread is 145 basis points. The 5-30 spread is 152 basis points.

China Import and Export data is disappointing. Imports plummet -20.4% last month year-on-year versus the -15% expected and below the prior month’s -13.8% decrease. China Exports drop -3.7% better than the -6.3% expected and the prior month’s -5.5% but economic weakness persists. The China trade surplus is 

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Sunday, October 11, 2015

MONDAY 10/12/15; Columbus Day; US Markets are Open; Bond Markets Closed; Banks Closed; Fed Speak; Oil Collapses

US futures are negative as Asia prepares for a new week of trading ahead. S&P -4. Dow -32. Nasdaq -9. Australia stocks begin the week marginally higher. The Aussie dollar is at 0.7321 a seven-week high.  New Zealand stocks trade up +0.7%. Japan is not trading today due to the Sports (Health and Sports) Day holiday.

Euro 1.1263. Dollar/yen 120.23. Pound 1.5320 USD 94.863. Dollar/yuan 6.3542. WTIC 49.82. Brent oil 52.81. Natty gas 2.53. Gold 1155. Silver 15.79. Copper 2.413.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.64%, 5-year 1.40%, 10-year 2.09%, 30-year 2.92%. Bond markets are closed due to the Columbus Day holiday. German 10-year yield 0.612%. German 2-year yield -0.26%. Japan 10-year yield 0.332%.

China Golden Week spending data is very 

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drop in oil prices is the big story today. WTIC is down over -4% to 47.44. West Texas crude was testing the 200-day MA resistance at 51 one day ago. Brent oil is beaten down to 50.70 from above 54.00 only one day ago. Energy stocks are slapped hard. XLE -1.3%.

After the closing bell, Fed’s Brainard warns about the slowing global economy and its potential negative impact on the United States. She advises colleagues to watch the economic data. Brainard is concerned about the lack of wage growth (since inflation that the Fed desires cannot exist without higher wages). She expects inflation to remain subdued. Brainard had been leaning hawkish over the last few weeks but is clearly more dovish in her statements and speech. Brainard does not rule out a rate hike this year but her comments state the case for the Federal Reserve to delay the first hike until 2016.

The Federal Reserve continues to send mixed messages one member stating the case for a rate hike and another does not. The constant Fed speak only serves to create confusion and angst among global traders. It appears more and more that the Fed is simply making it all up as they go along. Traders and investors are losing confidence in the central banker Keynesian money printers that are controlling the world’s markets and economies for the last six years.

S&P rating agency downgrades Volkswagen credit rating one notch to A-. S&P blames the emissions scandal for the lower rating and says further cuts may be warranted. VW may have to sell assets to build cash reserves.