MONDAY 10/19/15; China GDP; Canada Elections; GPC; HAL; HAS; MS; CBI; IBM; STLD; ZION

Global traders are fixated on China GDP to begin the new week of trading. The potential reaction to the data is an unknown. If China growth drops under +7%, which will clearly verify the weakening economy, will the Shanghai and Hang Seng Index’s instead catapult higher  anticipating more PBOC stimulus (bad news is good news)?

China GDP is expected to come in at +6.8%, a six-handle, versus the +7.0% from Q2. The central bankers have created a cynical market. If one were a betting man, and knowing that China massages their economic data even more than the US, the GDP will likely come in at +6.9%, under the +7% level to reflect the slowing economy that everyone realizes, while at the same time beating consensus at +6.8% and meeting the top end of the +6.4%-+6.9% consensus range. A +6.9% GDP would be the Goldilocks number if the Beijing communists pick the most favorable outcome to try and stabilize markets.

As Monday morning begins in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and Sunday evening continues in the States, futures are flat. S&P -1. Dow -7. Nasdaq +1. The ASX 200 begins trading flat. The Nikkei futures are indicating a soft open down about -0.5%.

Euro 1.1353. Dollar/yen 119.39. Pound 1.5437. Aussie dollar 0.7264. Mexican peso 16.4054. Canadian dollar is 1.2916 with Canada elections on tap today. Dollar/yuan 6.3538.

WTIC oil 47.47. Brent oil 50.68. Natty gas is up +1.1% to 2.46. Gold 1176. Silver 16.00. Copper 2.4060.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.61%, 5-year 1.35%, 10-year 2.03%, 30-year 2.88%. The 2-10 spread is 142 bips.

At 9:30 AM Tokyo (8:30 AM Shanghai and Hong Kong; 8:30 PM EST Sunday evening), S&P -3. Dow -25. Nasdaq -6. The KOSPI is trading marginally lower along with the NIKK and ASX 200. US Treasury yields drop one basis point across the yield curve; 10-year yield 2.02%.

South Korea retail sales are 














[Text is Redacted: Purchase October 2015-10 to Read the Complete Chronology]

For Q3 earnings season so far, over 70% of companies have beat on the bottom line EPS, however, less than 50% have beaten on top line revenue.

China President Xi and his wife land in London and the communist is given the red carpet treatment. UK PM Cameron says a “Golden Era” of Chinese-Britain relations begins. Western nations line up one after another to kiss the communist’s ring.