Sunday, November 30, 2014

MONDAY 12/1/14; Hong Kong Police Clash with Pro-Democracy Demonstrators; Global PMI's; Russian Ruble Currency Collapse; German Economy in Contraction; Japan Credit Rating Downgraded; AAPL Mini Flash Crash; ISM Mfg Index; Oil Places Intraday Bottom

At 7:30 AM Hong Kong time (6:30 PM EST), protestors are holding their ground in Admiralty. Government offices are closed due to the unrest. Violence increases as the demonstrators open colorful umbrellas to block the pepper spray (The Occupy Central protests are also called the Umbrella Revolution). Hong Kong police rush the protestors 

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The RUT 200-day MA is 1150 only four points away and the 50-day MA is 1132.

TRAN is beaten -2.7%. XOM bounces +2% and CVX +2.6% creating lift in the Dow Industrials. The casino stocks roll ‘snake eyes’. MPEL -3.3%. WYNN -2.3%. LVS -3.5%. MGM -2.4%. AAPL is down -3.3% to 115 off the -6.3% intraday bottom at 111. MSFT gains +1.8%. RCL bounces +3.3% on news it will replace BMS in the S&P 500. TSLA -5.3%. FB -3.4%. TWTR -6.5%. Social internet stocks are whacked. SOCL loses -2.9%. GPRO -5.7%. LOCO -6%.

After the closing bell, CY drops -1.6% after announcing a merger with CODE that pops +11%. Judging by the price action, Cypress Semi is acquiring Spansion (the acquirer trades lower and the target company explodes higher), however, as the after session continues CY catches a strong bid higher gaining +10% and CODE spurts to +14%. RV and bus maker THO pukes -4% after missing on EPS. Traders are asking if the base placed by oil intraday today will hold and signal overall market stabilization. The jury is out.

SUNDAY 11/30/14; Hong Kong Violence; Swiss Gold Referendum

At 8 AM EST (9 PM Hong Kong local time), the Hong Kong unrest intensifies as the student pro-democracy protestors march on government buildings intending to disrupt business before the Monday work week begins. The police are moving in to forcibly remove the demonstrators and the city is a powder keg ready to explode. Police and protestors are clashing. Police are beating protestors with batons. Demonstrators are throwing rocks and other objects at police. The Beijing communist leaders 

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 Aussie dollar drops to 0.8477 to a four-year low and the SPASX200 is selling off to begin the day. The dollar/yen remains elevated at 118.82 which should help the Nikkei Index remain elevated.

At 6:23 PM EST (7:23 AM Hong Kong), S&P -8. Dow -62. Nasdaq -15. The US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.47%, 5-year 1.48%, 10-year 2.16%, 30-year 2.89%. WTIC oil is 64.24 under the 65 level for the first time since May 2010. Brent oil 68.45. Natty gas loses the four level to 3.97.

SATURDAY 11/29/14; Missouri Race Riots Continue

Over 150 protestors riot in front of the Ferguson, Missouri, police station. 16 are arrested overnight as the race riots and social unrest continues. Three large malls had to be shut down in St Louis due to the ongoing unrest. Groups are staging sit-in and die-ins where demonstrators lay on the ground until removed by police. Groups such as the Communist Party are showing up in St Louis adding to the chaos. Other more radical groups are flying into St Louis from New York City to stir the pot.

Black Friday receives a few black marks. 

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Tension increases in Hong Kong as the police are preparing to remove the student pro-democracy demonstrators. WHO (World Health Organization) reports nearly 7K deaths from Ebola in West Africa a quick and sudden increase in the data. Over 16K are infected and the jump in deaths may be due to a refinement of the counting methodology. Nonetheless, the Ebola pandemic in West Africa shows no signs of abating.

Friday, November 28, 2014

FRIDAY 11/28/14; Oil Prices Collapse; Japan 2-Year Yield Goes Negative; SSEC Another 3-Year Record High; Russian Ruble Collapses; Euro Zone Inflation Data; European Bond Yields Printing Record Lows; German Bund 0.695%; US Markets Reopen for Half-Day; Black Friday Shopping Day; Energy and Oil Sectors in Bear Markets; SPX and TRAN All-Time Record Highs; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year Record High; EOM

The NIKK is up +0.7% in the early going. Japan’s consumer price inflation continues to slow placing the 2% BOJ inflation goal by 2015 into further jeopardy. The Japanese consumer does not show any signs of increased spending. Japan JGB 10-year yield drops to 0.417%. Japan’s 2-year note yield drops under zero to -0.005% for the first time in history. Investors are paying the government to hold their money. The BOJ policies are creating dysfunction in the 

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on pace with last year not showing an increase. The lower class consumers are cautiously buying. Video games, televisions, electronics, home wares, vacuums, mixers and blenders and coffee makers are all big sellers.

Egypt clamps down on anti-government protestors. Cairo is in lock down with tanks patrolling city streets. Early reports say two senior military officers and four protestors are killed. Over 100 are arrested. The ongoing social unrest has destroyed the tourism industry and the violence is increasing along the Egypt-Israel and Egypt-Saudi borders.

Fierce fighting continues between the ISIS radicals and Kurdish forces supported by the US in the Syria-Turkey border town of Kobani. The city is being reduced to rubble; there will be nothing of value remaining for the victor. The US air strikes in Syria are aiding Asaad which creates new enemies against America. The US has an incoherent foreign policy that avoids taking sides and only serves to alienate Middle East nations including our Israeli friends. The United States foreign policy is crisis management reacting to events rather than providing a cohesive proactive plan. The rampant Middle East and northern Africa regional wars may explode into a modern day Holy War at any time.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

THURSDAY 11/27/14; SSEC 3-Year Record High; German Bund Record Low 0.71% Yield; France 10-Year Yield Drops Under 1%; Oil Prices at 4-Year Record Lows; OPEC Does Not Cut Production Resulting in Oil Price Collapse; Thanksgiving Day; US Markets Closed

Asian indexes are mixed. The NIKK drops -0.8% since the dollar/yen drops to 117.25 (stronger yen). Troubled airbag maker Takata drops -5% after US regulators set a firm deadline for Tuesday, 12/2/14, for a complete US recall of the airbags. SPASX200 is up 

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The US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.50%, 5-year 1.53%, 10-year 2.22% and 30-year 2.93%.

At 8 PM EST, Aussie engineering and oil sectors are collapsing. Iron ore prices continue to deteriorate. The ruble is crushed lower with the Russian Ruble currency pair moving from 46 up towards 49. The US 10-year yield drops to 2.21% and the 30-year 2.92% reflecting a flattening yield curve. Copper drops to 2.94 and lower.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

WEDNESDAY 11/26/14; SSEC 3-Year Record High; Hong Kong Unrest; ECB Says Sovereign Bond-Buying Will Occur Q1 2015; DE; Durable Goods; Personal Income and Spending; Chicago PMI; Consumer Sentiment; New and Pending Home Sales; German Bund Record Low Yield 0.731%; SPX, INDU and AAPL New All-Time Closing Highs; COMPQ Record 14-1/2 Year High; US Markets Closed Tomorrow for Thanksgiving Day

Asian markets start out sideways. Australian stocks float higher with the SPASX200 up +0.7% in the early going. The Aussie dollar is down to 0.8514 lows not seen for four years. Dollar/yen 117.81. Euro 1.2478. HMC is down -3% receiving a delayed negative reaction on the news yesterday of under reporting accidents to US regulators.

Hong Kong police clash with pro-democracy protestors. Pepper spray fills the air. Student protest leaders are arrested

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Utilities outperform with UTIL up +0.5%. The telecom sector is strong. IYZ +1.1%. VZ +1.4%. T +0.9%. Investors are running into the perceived safety of utility and telecom stocks for the dividends but will likely realize in the weeks ahead they are covering themselves with a fig leaf. SDY and DVY close at record highs verifying the rush into dividend stocks with traders willing to buy regardless of price. The US stock market is closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow and will reopen at 9:30 AM EST Friday morning for a shortened session.

Protestors storm the St Louis court house as the race riots continue in Missouri but there are no injuries; simply a lot of pushing and shoving as tensions remain high after the grand jury decided to not indict the white police officer that shot the black youth.

TUESDAY 11/25/14; SSEC 3-Year Record High; German GDP; TIF; CHS; CPB; HRL; US Q3 GDP; S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Indexes; Consumer Confidence; 5-Year Note Auction; SPX, TRAN and AAPL All-Time Highs; AAPL $700 Billion Market Cap; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year Record High; HPQ; ADI; TIVO

The NIKK gains +0.3% after yesterday’s holiday. BOJ meeting minutes show that some members are concerned over the quantitative easing program as well as the drop in oil price. The SSEC is up +1.4% to a new record three-year high. The HSI is marginally lower down -0.2%. Aussie miners are weak giving up yesterday’s happy mood. SPASX200 -0.5%. KOSPI is flat. Singapore reports stronger growth than expected. SNE bounces +6% after providing a positive outlook.

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As the sun goes down in Ferguson, Missouri, the site of looting and social unrest, crowds begin forming for another night of potential mayhem. The National Guard is out in full force this evening with 2100 troops guarding businesses and streets which will keep things calm. Where were they yesterday when the city was left to burn? Protests are occurring in other US cities including New York and Los Angeles. At 7:45 PM EST, New York police are shown beating a protestor on television. Social unrest increases in America. The wealthy that own stocks took all the money, along with the banksters, politicians and Fed officials, and left the lower middle class and poor holding the bag. The have not’s in America are beginning to fight back.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

MONDAY 11/24/14; SSEC (Shanghai) 3-Year Record High; Spain 10-Year Yield Under 2% for First Time in History; TSL; Flash PMI Services; 2-Year Note Auction; SPX, INDU, TRAN and AAPL New All-Time Highs; COMPQ 14-1/2 Year Record High; BRCD; NUAN; PANW; WDAY

Asian indexes are a sea of green. The new trading week, and holiday-shortened week in the States, begins in a festive party mood. The PBOC lowering rates on Friday creates a wild upside orgy in Asian stocks. China is already talking about further cuts increasing the feeding frenzy. Chinese banks, brokerages and especially property stocks catapult higher. All 65 of the 65 major real estate stocks are

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 ....... announcement, the news reports told folks that the decision was coming. This only provided an itinerary for trouble-makers to become liquored-up and then take to the streets in protest. The continued heavy use of military clothing and weapons by police only serves to create more tension and violence. Either the authorities are grossly incompetent or they purposely wanted the violence to occur to practice riot-fighting techniques. The violence continues through the night as smoke rises above Ferguson. Fortunately no one is killed and injuries are minor.

SUNDAY 11/23/14

The US remains in talks with Iran concerning the nuclear agreement deadline tomorrow. Israel threatens potential military action if the deal is a free pass for Iran. The deadline may be pushed forward again that will allow Iran more time to develop the nuclear bomb. News reports 

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At 6 PM EST, as Asian markets prepare for the new week of trading, US futures are slightly higher. S&P +2. Dow +17. Nasdaq +4. Dollar/yen 117.84. Euro 1.2373. Pound 1.5646. Australian markets are on fire with iron ore stocks leading higher. Japan markets are closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day. Asia is set for a higher session fueled by the PBOC rate cuts and the ECB’s promises of more stimulus.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

SATURDAY 11/22/14

Japan is hit with a 6.8 magnitude earthquake overnight about 125 miles (200 km) northwest of Tokyo in the mountains. Structures have collapsed and train tracks are covered over with mud and debris but injuries are limited. Electric power lines are down cutting off service to less than 1000 people. The earthquake is 150 miles (240 km) from the troubled Fukishima nuclear plant where a multi-year and likely multi-decade clean-up continues. An earthquake also occurs in China killing one dozen people. 

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 Despite the retail stocks rocketing higher during the last two week’s earnings releases, heavy discounting is expected this holiday season which will cut into company margins. Retail stocks typically peak out early December seasonality-wise.

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, ketchup and condiment king Heinz fires more workers before the holidays. Heinz used to trade under the HNZ symbol but went private June of last year. If the economy is doing so well why are workers kicked to the curb? Since Heinz is now a private company it is not disclosing the number of jobs lost over the last year.

Friday, November 21, 2014

FRIDAY 11/21/14; ECB Promises More Stimulus; PBOC Cuts Interest Rates; Central Bankers Create Global Market Melt-Up; OpEx; SPX, INDU, TRAN and AAPL All-Time Highs; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year High

Japan PM Abe paves the way for the snap elections by dissolving parliament’s lower house. Abe expects the election to provide a continuing mandate for Abenomics. The dollar/yen remains under 118. NIKK +0.3%. SPASX200 loses -0.2%. SSEC is up +1.4% the big winner in the Asian session although the interest for Chinese stocks has dropped off after the Stock Connect euphoria earlier in the week. HSI +0.4%. KOSPI +0.4%.

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The FBI sends 100 agents to Ferguson, Missouri, ground zero of the race riots. The National guard is on standby. The grand jury decision is likely to be released on the weekend or very soon and authorities are expecting violence. The decision on whether or not to indict the police officer that shot the teenager may be released early Sunday morning since that would create the least amount of turmoil. Many people are liquored-up on Saturday night and not in a riot mood come early Sunday morning. If the news is released early Sunday, authorities can use the day time Sunday to keep folks calm. Two men are arrested in a bomb plot in Ferguson.

President Obama announces plans to extend the US combat role in Afghanistan longer than expected. The president no doubt learned from his mistake in Iraq where he pulled all troops out creating a vacuum that created the ongoing ISIS problem. The president has conducted a war in Libya as well as current Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria and now plans to extend the military operation in Afghanistan. President Bush created the Middle East mess going into Iraq under the guise of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) that turned out to not exist. President Obama exacerbates the problem by removing troops to fast. The Middle East is in chaos.

The IRS scandal flares up after 30K missing emails are recovered from Lois Lerner’s account. It is unknown as yet if the emails are damaging to the Lerner or the Whitehouse or if the documents are heavily redacted. Lerner refuses to talk invoking her Fifth Amendment rights. She is at the center of the controversy where conservative, Tea Party and other groups and individuals, that had different views than President Obama, were targeted, audited and harassed by the IRS before the 2012 presidential election. The nefarious behavior at the IRS rigged the election in the president’s favor and investigations are continuing to determine if Lerner was directed by the president or Whitehouse staff.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

THURSDAY 11/20/14; Global Flash PMI's; CPI (Consumer Price Index); Fed Speak; BBY; DLTR; Philly Fed Survey Shock and Awe; Existing Home Sales; SPX, INDU and AAPL All-Time Highs; GPS; MRVL; President Obama Announces Immigration Plan by Executive Order

Dollar/yen 118.16. Japan exports are up +9.6% year on year beating expectations and last month’s +6.9% rise but imports are up +2.7% missing the +3.4% expectations and under last month’s +6.2%. The aging population in Japan is slow to spend money but the weaker yen is boosting exports. The NIKK begins trading marginally higher due to the weaker yen. 

[Text is Redacted: Purchase November 2014-11 to Read the Complete Chronology]

 Fed’s Williams expresses concern over low global growth with interest rates at long-time lows. Williams is worried that economic growth and recovery is not as strong as prior recoveries.

Race riots and unrest are increasing in St Louis ahead of a grand jury decision concerning the police shooting of the unarmed black teenager. Recent reports indicate that the youth may have attacked the officer. If the police officer is not indicted, violence will occur. A crowd forms outside the Ferguson Missouri police station and several rioters arrested.

President Obama speaks in the evening using executive powers to grant amnesty to illegal aliens. The president poisons the well between democrats and republicans as both parties will now focus on the presidential election two years away rather than govern properly. Washington, DC, is dysfunctional with non-stop baby games. The president says that Congress would not act with immigration legislation over the last four years forcing him to act but he conveniently leaves out the fact that he had a Congress with a democratic majority and could have easily passed the immigration legislation the two years prior. Each side is guilty of incompetence. The majority of Americans are unhappy with the president’s unilateral actions. Most American’s declare a pox on both their houses. Futures are unaffected.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

WEDNESDAY 11/19/14; LOW; TGT; SPLS; Housing Starts; FOMC Minutes; LB; CRM; GMCR; WSM

The NIKK moves +0.7% higher in early trading fueled by the euphoria in US stocks and a weaker yen. The dollar/yen jumps above the 117 level to 117.14. Banzai! Iron ore prices continue lower at five-year lows creating weakness in Aussie miners and a negative start for the SPASX200. Troubled airbag maker Takata is 

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.... ISIS has enough weapons to continue fighting for two years in Syria and Iraq. The ISIS radicals are now recruiting for new members in Pakistan. 30% of the terrorists released from Gitmo detention center by President Obama have now returned to fighting in the Middle East.

Police are investigating the death of Citigroup executive Shawn Miller whose body is found in the bathroom of his New York City apartment. Miller, 42 years old, had his throat slit and a knife is not recovered. Miller headed the environment and social risk division at C.

TUESDAY 11/18/14; China House Prices Disappoint; Japan PM Abe Delays Tax Hike and Calls for Snap Elections; HD; DKS; TJX; MDT; PPI (Producer Price Index); SPX, INDU and AAPL All-Time Record Highs; SPX Above 2050 for First Time in History; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year High; HD Flash Crash; LZB; Keystone XL Pipeline Bill Defeated

Japan PM Abe will speak today so traders pump the NIKK +1.7% higher anticipating the delay of the sales tax hike. The Nikkei is back above 17K. The dollar/yen moves higher to 116.78 so the weaker yen sends stocks higher. Banzai! Japan exporters trade higher on the weaker yen. 

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The Fed and other central banker easy money allows the elite to use financial engineering to pump stocks higher rather than buy capital equipment or hire additional workers to help put people back to work. The bankers and other elite then pay back the Fed members for their collusion by paying former officials such as former Chairman Bernanke huge $250K speaking fees for a token luncheon. Fed Chair Yellen is salivating knowing that in a couple years she will receive these obscene monetary kickbacks for her service to the wealthy and live a life of luxury.

The country appears broken. The elite are raping the stock market upside each day; other power brokers are taking advantage of any loophole possible that allows for easy profits and monetary gains with little effort regardless of whether it hurts another citizen. In respect to the disadvantaged and poor in the US, the response by the elite is the same as Marie Antoinette’s famous quote when she learned that the peasants had no bread, “Let them eat cake.” Compassion is lost in America and the world.

The country has descended into a narcissistic Caligula-style party each day with many Americans only concerned about short-term materialism and daily self pleasure. There is a total disregard for the future of the country even though the power brokers profess faux concern. If there was ever a time for a serious reset for the US the time is at hand so prepare yourself for any coming storm. Reduce all debt and save and set aside a large cash reserve. Make preparations and separate yourself from the ongoing debauchery; do not look back at the city of Sodom.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

MONDAY 11/17/14; Japan in Recession; Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect Link Opens; TSN; Empire State Mfg; Industrial Production; ECB President Draghi Says Buying Government Bonds is an Option; SPX and AAPL New All-Time Highs; URBN

At 7:36 PM EST Sunday evening US time (8:36 AM Hong Kong local time), S&P -9. Dow -72. Nasdaq -16.

Asian indexes are soft after the weaker than expected Japan Q3 GDP at -1.6%. Abe will be losing sleep this evening since 

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 popular retailer URBN reports a miss in earnings and trades lower. Scientific instrument maker A trades lower after its positive earnings release. GPRO trades lower after announcing a secondary.

Programmable device maker XLNX jumps higher after announcing a stock repurchase program. Buybacks fueled by central banker easy money send stocks higher. Too bad the money is not used for capital equipment or to hire employees. Instead, the Fed and other central banker policies continue to make the wealthy (that own stocks) wealthier beyond their dreams while ignoring the now lower-middle class and poor. The middle class from years ago has disappeared in America creating a new society of the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’; the elite and the lower class.

SUNDAY 11/16/14; ISIS Beheading; Japan GDP Signals Recession

A video appears on the internet showing the beheading of hostage Peter Kassig by the ISIS radicals in Syria and Iraq. The Islamic nutcases did not show mercy for Kassig who had converted to Islam and was helping provide aid to the Syrian people. The last beheading was UK citizen Alan Henning on 10/3/14 six weeks ago. There are many beheadings but the notable Western victims (US and UK) began with James Foley’s beheading on 8/19/14. Two weeks later Steven Sotloff was murdered on 9/2/14. Two weeks later, David Haines was beheaded on 9/13/14. Three weeks passed next resulting in the murder of Alan Henning on 10/3/14.

The heinous 15-minute video shows 

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on indicating an economy that may be crumbling and falling apart obviously a far greater concern. The stock market ran higher last week on an expected delay of the sales tax and the weaker GDP data definitely points in this direction but the degree of weakness is spooking global traders. PM Abe holds a news conference tomorrow.

At 7 PM EST, the dollar/yen retreats to 116.71. S&P -4. Dow -30. Nasdaq -7. Oil turns negative. WTIC 75.67. Brent 79.37. Commodities may weaken since the economic data from Japan and China is disappointing reflecting slowing global demand. The NIKK drops -0.8% to 17360. The SPASX200 trades lower with the Aussie dollar at 0.8757. KOSPI begins the session lower.

At 7:08 PM, S&P -5. Dow -40. Nasdaq -10.

At 7:16 PM, S&P -6. Dow -46. Nasdaq -11. Dollar/yen 116.48. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops to 2.30%.

At 7:25 PM, S&P -7. Dow -45. Nasdaq -13. Dollar/yen 116.47.

At 7:32 PM EST (8:32 AM Hong Kong), S&P -8. Dow -64. Nasdaq -15.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

SATURDAY 11/15/14; G-20 Summit

The Western leaders gang up on Russian President Putin at the G-20 Summit in Brisbane voicing displeasure and concern over the increasing military aggression by Russia into Ukraine. Moscow continues to deny any involvement in the civil war. Russia flexes its muscles saying that military bomber and other flights will continue around the world including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The cold relations between the West and Russia become 

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Three student leaders associated with the Occupy Central pro-democracy demonstrations are detained at the Hong Kong Airport. The students intend to visit the mainland to meet with Beijing communist leaders but airport officials are denying boarding passes. The students remain naïve since China is a communist country and by definition, the Beijing leaders dictate to the people how they are to live, act, work and exist without rebuttal.

Russian President Putin, beaten up from the criticism over Russia’s military involvement in Ukraine, plans to leave the G-20 early before the communiqué is released tomorrow.

Friday, November 14, 2014

FRIDAY 11/14/14; Russian Ruble Collapse; European GDP's; Greece Exits Recession; Retail Sales; Consumer Sentiment; Business Inventories; SPX, TRAN and AAPL New All-Time Highs; COMPQ Record 14-1/2 Year High

Dollar/yen catapults higher above 116. Banzai! Of course the NIKK moves higher due to the weaker yen gaining +0.6% at 17.5K. Aussie dollar 0.8690. The SPASX200 is up +0.2% with Aussie banks trading higher but energy stocks lower. Korean stocks are weak with the KOSPI dropping -0.8%. Malaysia GDP is in line with expectations at +5.6% weakening slightly from the prior quarter’s +6.4%.

India’s inflation dips to a five-year low to +1.8% steadily falling 

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Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fischer, Chair Yellen’s right hand man, moderates a panel in Washington, DC. Fed’s Powell touts the standard line that there is concern over market volatility ahead but it will not affect the Fed’s decisions. The joint Fed-ECB conference is uneventful with the discussions concerning further collusive intervention into world markets occurring in private.

The Investors Intelligence survey is at a record high 58% bulls. Traders are complacent as evidenced with AAPL gapping up every day as investors are willing to buy without any regard for price. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain low ditto the VIX at 13.31 verifying the complacency. There is no reason to ever worry about a stock market pull back since the central bankers plan on maintaining higher equities indefinitely. Investors are partying like its 1999.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

THURSDAY 11/13/14; Ukraine-Russia Turmoil; Treasury Secretary Lew Warns Europe of "Lost Decade"; WMT; KSS; VIAB; TYC; NYSE Trading Outage; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; 30-Year Bond Auction; SPX, INDU, TRAN and AAPL All-Time Record Highs; COMPQ 14-1/2 Year Record High; JWN; AMAT

Japan stocks continue higher. Machinery Orders are up +2.9% beating the +1.9% expectations an encouraging sign for the economy. The drama continues concerning whether the sales tax will be delayed and if snap elections will be called. On Monday, Japan releases the GDP and a negative surprise will likely postpone the tax hike. A stronger GDP will likely keep the sales tax on the table. Traders are sniffing out the weaker GDP number and anticipate that the sales tax will be 

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they chose to try and inflate themselves out pushing on a string.

Market bears are as rare as hen’s teeth but a notable naysayer is investment manager Dr Marc Faber that believes a significant market pull back is at the doorstep. Faber says, “I will soon be proven right.”

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

WEDNESDAY 11/12/14; US and UK Regulators Fine Banks; Ukraine Turmoil; Mexico Scandals; BZH; M; Wholesale Trade; 10-Year Note Auction; AAPL New All-Time High; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year High; CSCO; JCP

The NIKK is up +1% above 17.2K out of the gate printing a new seven-year high fueled by the weaker yen. Dollar/yen 115.80. News reports say Japan PM Abe is delaying the sales tax hike and will call for a snap election within the next month. Abe has not yet confirmed the reports. The tax hike delay news, however, continues to send the Nikkei higher. The weaker yen sends the auto makers higher (exporters). The NIKK ends the session up +0.4% off the highs since the yen strengthens and the dollar/yen pair retreats to 115.30.

Aussie consumer confidence is higher but stocks sell off. Miners are weak dragging the 

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 biggest art auction in history occurs at Christie’s with two Warhols selling for $153 million. Christie’s sells $853 million in art expanding the art bubble as the wealthy spend huge stock market gains. The bidding war for Andy Warhol works help continue the art sector euphoria and remove the disappointment after yesterday’s BID auction.

Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2014-10

The October ebook publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2014-10 is available through Amazon. October was a crazy month with events occurring from all directions. The stock market topped out in September and was selling off into the middle of the month when Fed's Bullard stepped in with the promise of future quantitative easing that created the bottom. The world's central bankers are colluding to keep the stock markets elevated. Coordinated and spaced stimulus announcements from the BOE, PBOC, BOJ and ECB take place over the last month creating steady bull fuel and new all-time highs.

During October, the US dollar goes parabolic creating a collapse in oil prices and other commodities. The dollar/yen explodes higher. Ebola fears are ongoing. There is continued turmoil in Ukraine. The Russian Ruble collapse is another story. Global deflation is developing. The German Bund prints a record low 0.756% yield. The Fed ends QE. European bank stress test results are reported. The Dow and SPX actually print negative for the year during October but it was fast and if you blinked you missed it.

The current market action is epic and historic. Years from now you will look back and realize the importance of the 2013-2015 period. The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2014-10 explains the above items and their impacts on global markets. We live in truly remarkable times. A link to 2014-10 is provided in the left margin.

TUESDAY 11/11/14; Japan Delays Sales Tax Hike; Dollar/Yen 116; VOD; Veteran's Day; US Bond Markets Closed; DHI

The dollar/yen is 115.50 and climbing higher to 116. Banzai! The weaker yen yesterday created the up move in US stocks and new all-time highs. Japan PM Abe says the sales tax hike may be delayed and a snap election may be called for the government. The delay of the sales tax bludgeons the yen lower, dollar/yen pair higher and sends the Nikkei Index rocketing higher. The BOJ is in the stock market purchasing ETF’s. The NIKK jumps +2.1% closing at 17124 a seven-year high at 17K. Japan continues to goose its markets with easy money and 

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.................... disappearing middle class and poor that do not own stocks watch the elite class become richer day after day due to the Fed’s policies.

The Israeli-Hamas problems increase as six people die over the last three weeks in separate incidents. Hamas is encouraging Palestinians to use automobiles to injure and kill Israeli’s; a “car intifada.” The incidents of automobiles driving into crowds by radical nutcases will increase around the world.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

MONDAY 11/10/14; China PPI and CPI; APEC Summit; Spain's Catalonia Votes for Independence; SPX, INDU and TRAN All-Time Highs; 'Net Neutrality'

Home loan approvals fall in Australia. The SPASX200 remains weak and finishes down -0.5%. The NIKK finishes down -0.6% as the dollar/yen currency pair leaks lower to 114.35. Japan stocks are hurt by the prospects of another sales tax hike. Copper trades marginally higher at 3.04. Airbag maker Takata tumbles -17%.

The HSI explodes +2.4% higher above 24K at the 

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Car rental company HTZ drops -1% after delaying its quarterly report. RAX gains +1% after an earnings beat.

Fed’s Rosengren says the rise in the dollar occurs due to the strength in the US economy. Rosengren waxes worry that inflation is not reaching the 2% target level since it may lead to a deflationary mindset and cause consumers to pare back spending and investing.

UK PM David Cameron warns on the consequences of “bigger countries bullying smaller countries.” Cameron is referencing Russia’s takeover of Crimea and activity in eastern Ukraine. Cameron says sanctions against Russia will not end anytime soon.

SUNDAY 11/9/14; 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall; New Cold Wars; Spain's Catalonia Independence Vote

A meteor flies across the sky visible from Texas to California. Much of the US is headed into a cold snap for the week ahead. Natural gas ran up in price last week ahead of the unseasonably cold weather. Retailers such as TGT and WMT may benefit as consumers search for winter coats and sweaters. The severe weather may provide a lift to URI, LOW and HD. Local governments are boosting salt supplies for the roads this winter and CMP rises +1.8% in Friday trading.

China President Xi talks up the economy and highlights 

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The problems for troubled airbag maker Takata continue with potential criminal action on the table since engineers were allegedly ordered to destroy test data and video that identified the problems ten years ago but management did nothing and people have died. Humans consider monetary greed and corporate profits more important than honor, integrity and doing the right thing.

SATURDAY 11/8/14; China Import/Export Data; Ukraine Turmoil

The pace of China’s imports and exports is slowing. The PBOC will need to goose the economy again. Exports are up 11.6% a touch better than expectations but well off the prior month’s 

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companies worried about a prolonged dock shutdown occurring, are ordering more goods to plan ahead which creates a further strain on the logistics operations. A shutdown of California docks will have a significant negative effect on the US economy.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

FRIDAY 11/7/14; Russian Ruble Collapse; Ukraine Fighting Increases; Global Social Unrest Rises; HUM; CTB; Monthly Jobs Report; SPX, INDU and TRAN Record All-Time Highs; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; BRKA; President Obama Orders More Troops to Iraq

The dollar/yen is above 115. Banzai! The NIKK is up +0.7% in the early going above 16.9K. SNE bounces +3%. Other exporters such as Panasonic are also boosted by the weaker yen creating a positive 

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 sowing the seeds for a larger Middle East war going forward. In his zeal for ending the Iraq War, President Obama may be christened with the unpleasant label of starting World War III depending on how events unfold in northern Africa and the Middle East. The president nominates Loretta Lynch for US Attorney General to replace the controversial Eric Holder. Lynch is expected to move quickly through the approval process in Congress.

THURSDAY 11/6/14; Russian Ruble Collapse; BOE Rate Decision; ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference; Challenger Job Report; WEN; KATE; Productivity and Costs; Hong Kong Unrest; SPX, INDU and TRAN All-Time Highs; DIS

The dollar/yen pair moves above 115 indicating a weakening yen but then tumbles through 115 down to 114.70 so the stronger yen pounds the NIKK-0.9%  lower. Troubled airbag manufacturer Takata ann

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............... the results. BAC takes a token -1% drop in AH trading but will probably recover like C did last week. Which bank is next to adjust their Q3 earnings numbers?

AMZN announces a new product called “Echo” via TWTR. Echo is a 9-inch long cylinder that is a voice-activated assistant and speaker. As the AH trading continues, BAC recovers to only a marginal loss. Global traders may move markets sideways overnight waiting for the all-important US Monthly Jobs Report in the morning.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

WEDNESDAY 11/5/14; Republican Wave Takes Control of Senate; Russia Central Bank Intervention; European Stocks Rally; ADP Employment Report; MDLZ; TWX; SPX, INDU, UTIL and TRAN All-Time Highs; QCOM; TSLA

The NIKK is up 0.44% as the dollar/yen launches above 114. TM raises profit estimates due to the weaker yen. Softbank forecasts a drop in profits due to its S holdings but benefited greatly from the BABA IPO. 

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 a sovereign central bank, the FOMC and BOJ, respectively, and can simply print money at will. ECB President Draghi must build a consensus among the 18 member nations before charting a path forward which is akin to herding kittens.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

TUESDAY 11/4/14; NIKK Prints 17K; US Mid-Term Elections; Factory Orders; BABA; BKW; KORS; IP; VLO; UTIL and TRAN New All-Time Highs; ECB President Draghi Under Pressure; European Stocks Tank; DRYS; Republicans Win

The NIKK hits a new seven-year high as it opens for the first time this week up +2.7% to 16.8K. The Nikkei Index prints above the

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al 53 to 47 Senate. At any rate, the takeaway is that the republicans take control of the Senate as expected and also increase the membership in the House. President Obama has a bad night. The Whitehouse statement before the closing bell today was prescient; the president knew the elections were lost.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

MONDAY 11/3/14; Global PMI's; Motor Vehicle Sales; ISM Mfg Index; SPX, INDU, UTIL and AAPL New All-Time Highs; COMPQ New 14-1/2 Year Record High; President Obama and Fed Chair Yellen Meet; AIG; S; RIG; US Mid-Term Election Eve

South Korea opens down. Hyundai Heavy is downgraded but trades up +1.8%. Samsung files for two IPO’s and trades down -1.5%. China Services PMI is 53.8 in expansion but less than last month’s 54.4 and the weakest since January signaling a continued slowdown. The China HSBC P

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t if the results are mixed and the republicans fail to take the Senate equities will probably sell off. Energy and defenses tocks are expected to benefit from a republican takeover of the Senate so tickers such as XLE, XOM, NOC, GD and LMT will be in play over the coming days.

SUNDAY 11/2/14; Retail Price Wars Begin

Now that Halloween is over, the holiday shopping season begins in earnest and WMT is not fooling around. Heavy discounts are on tap by retailers as consumer dollars are targeted early and often. Wal-Mart annou

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ntercepts a Russian military bomber above the North Sea. There are one dozen other Russian military planes violating European airspace as President Putin pokes a stick in the West’s eye.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

SATURDAY 11/1/14; China PMI

China PMI manufacturing activity drops to 50.8 to a five-month low missing expectations at 51.1 which is also the prior month’s number. The 50.8 remains in expansion mode (above 50) but the data is disappoin

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n real estate, art, vintage cars and collectibles creating huge bubbles in these asset classes. BID plans an auction next week that should bring the highest price ever paid for a sculpture at over $100 million. Sothebys also plans to auction off other high priced art and sculptures during the week ahead and fully expects record numbers.