The SPASX200 gains +0.5% driven higher by the Aussie banks.
The KOSPI trades marginally lower dragged down by goliath shipbuilder Hyundai
Heavy drowning -7%. Sony misses earnings forecasts and lowers guidance.
The Nikkei Index is sent higher in early trading following
the US rally and on news that the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF)
plans to increase the weighting in domestic and foreign stock positions by 25%
across the board. The dollar/yen jumps to 109.40 and the weaker yen catapults
the NIKK up +1.4%. Traders ignore the tame inflation and weak household
spending data for Japan since the BOJ and government policies are focused on pumping
the stock market higher. The equity markets are clearly manipulated by the
central bankers and propped up by money printing.
After an afternoon policy meeting, BOJ Governor Kuroda
shocks the markets by announcing more stimulus. Japan fires a double whammy
money bazooka promising to buy 25% more stocks in the government pension fund
as well as providing more easy money. Banzai!! The dollar/yen explodes higher
to 111.57 (7-year low in yen). The NIKK rocket launches over +5% and settles up
+4.8% to 16414 to a 7-year high. US futures catapult higher. S&P +21. Dow
+180. Nasdaq +59. Euro 1.2573. Pound 1.5996.
The central bankers are the market and continue to pump the
stock market with money printing for the last six years. The SIP data feed outage
yesterday coincided with a purchase of 15000 E-mini S&P’s so obviously
the insider’s are told ahead of time so
they can make easy stock market gains in a few hours time. Is Wall Street
rigged? Of course it is.
The Japan decision is Abenomics on steroids and smacks of desperation
since the inflation target of 2% remains difficult to attain. Japan is
cheapening their currency through money printing. Global currency wars continue
as nations compete in a race to debase; a race to the bottom. China indexes
jump higher. SSEC +1.3%. HSI +1.3%. Aussie markets run higher on the news.
SPASX200 +0.9%. Banzai!! The KOSPI also turns around finishing up +0.3%.
Since today is the EOM, the monthly charts are going to
print a positive month and likely create a global stock market rally for a few months.
Shock and awe from Japan! The actions by Japan smack of desperation but no one
cares since Japan’s double-whammy money bazooka will allow long traders to rape
the upside in equity markets with central banker easy money. Fundamentals and
technical’s are tossed under the bus since central banks can create
never-ending higher stock markets printing money continuously without consequences.
At least for now.
Copper leaps higher gaining +0.8% to 3.09. Gold collapses 26
to 1172 which creates technical damage. Silver is down -2.6% to 16.00. Silver
has lost nearly -8% of its value in only 48 hours. US Treasury yields are;
2-year 0.48%, 5-year 1.59%, 10-year 2.32%, 30-year 3.06%. German bund 0.84%.
Japan 10-year yield 0.46%.
European indexes launch on the Japan double-whammy news. CAC
+2%. IBEX +1.8%. DAX +1.6%. FTSE +1.2%. French banks are higher after BNP
Paribas reports positive results. Royal Bank of Scotland sets aside $639
million to handle future litigation costs. BCS and C announced plans to set
aside more funds for litigation yesterday. RBS moves +4% higher. The troubled Italian
bank Monte dei Paschi is halted from trading after a near -3% drop. BMPS offes
no clear plan on how to increase its capital position. The Italian bank trouble
spreads with Banca Crige, another bank stress test failure, suspended from
trading after a -2.4% selloff.
Euro zone inflation is up +0.4% in line with expectations,
however, disinflation and deflation remain firmly on the table. Last month’s
inflation read was +0.3%. Italy’s 10-year yield drops to 2.39%. Spain 10-year
yield 2.12%. Greece 10-year yield is very erratic up over 50 basis points
yesterday and down 14 basis points today to 7.94%.
The Russia central bank raises the key benchmark rate to
9.50%. The intervention was obvious yesterday as evidenced by the strength in
the ruble. The Russian Ruble currency pair is 41.7261 which indicates a +0.6% strengthening
of the ruble. Russian stocks are up +1.5% across the board. Russia and Ukraine
reach a natural gas deal. The cease-fire in Ukraine loosely holds as the pro-Russian
separatists are stepping up the fighting against Ukraine troops.
At 6 AM, S&P +23. Dow +196. Nasdaq +62. At 6:45 AM,
S&P +24. Dow +196. Nasdaq +64. CAC +1.9%. IBEX +1.7%. DAX +1.7%. FTSE
+1.1%. European indexes level off at the highs from the Japan excitement with
Germany continuing to inch higher.
WTIC crude oil drops -0.6% to 80.65 and Brent falls -0.8% to
85.56. How comical, or perhaps tragic, it is to see oil reflect a slowing global
economy while at the same time the central banks manipulate stock prices
higher? Natural gas is up +3% to 3.94 working towards the psychological 4 level.
The US 10-year yield is up a tick to 2.33%.
At 7 AM, S&P +23. Dow +195. Nasdaq +63. Dollar/yen
111.74.
At 7:05 AM, S&P +20. Dow +172. Nasdaq +57. Dollar/yen
111.71.
XOM reports blowout earnings 1.89 versus 1.71 expected on
EPS and $107.5 billion top line versus $105.5 billion expected. Exxon increases
the dividend +9.5%. CVX beats on the bottom line but misses on the top line.
Both major oil producers are reducing production. ABBV beats and raises
guidance bouncing +3.6% and adding lift to the biotech and pharma sectors.
Futures remain elevated receiving a happy nod from the earnings releases.
Consumer staple CLX beats on earnings and rises +0.5%. HLT
beats on earnings and raises guidance; the Ebola scare is not having an impact
so the stock moves higher. COL beats on earnings. Lumber indicator WY beats on
earnings and drifts marginally higher. NWL dumps -5% after beating on EPS but
missing on the top line. The top line misses continue for many stocks but
traders ignore this warning of weaker earnings ahead since the central banks
support the markets.
At 8:30 AM, the Fed’s favorite economic metric, Personal
Income and Spending, reports a miss. The Spending portion is down -0.2% and
Income is up +0.2%. Higher numbers were expected for both components. Traders
do not care since the BOJ is pumping global markets higher. Today is the EOM
and the SPX started October at 1972.29. After the Japan double-whammy money
bazooka, a positive month is on tap for the SPX reversing September’s down
month. The Halloween holiday is the second largest retail spending holiday only
surpassed by Christmas.
US futures remain strong. S&P +22. Dow +189. Nasdaq +60.
Dollar/yen 111.59. 2-year yield 0.49%. 5-year 1.60%. 10-year 2.33%. 30-year
3.07%.
The trading session begins with equities launching higher
continuing a global short-covering rally. The major indexes explode over +1%
higher. The market bears are running for their lives. Semiconductors leap
higher with SOX up +3.5%. MCHP +5.3%. INTC +3.7%. V continues running higher up
+2% above 241 and Argus upgrades Visa setting a 260 price target. MHK, a
housing sector bellwether, is upgraded and gains +5%. Interestingly, as stocks
come on line, copper collapses and turns negative losing all gains in the
overnight session.
DXJ, the Japan ETF, leaps +10%. The dollar/yen moves above
112. The stocks that reported earnings last evening and this morning launch
higher except for Starbucks. GRPN +21%. LNKD +12%. XOM +1.3%. CVX starts out
lower but turns higher up +1.1%. SBUX -2.2%. Chemical bellwether EMN bounces +7%.
SAM, Boston Beer, the maker of Sam Adams beer, gains +7.2% on robust sales. The
middle class and poor are drinking their troubles away. MBLY gains +2.4% on
strong earnings. Blue chips IBM and MCD are sour spots trading down in the up
tape. AEGR crashes -39% after reporting a loss, decreasing guidance and
receiving downgrades. Gold is crushed -3% and silver is down -3.4%.
At 9:45 AM, Chicago PMI is a solid and very strong number at
66.2 above last month’s 60.5 and at a one-year high. The ordering components
are all higher. Inventories are down so restocking will be needed especially if
the weather turns cold a healthy economic sign. The Chicago PMI hints at a
solid end to the year on tap but the data shows very little interest in cap ex
spending by companies so economic softness should continue in 2015.
At 9:55 AM, Consumer Sentiment is 86.9 the highest since
July 2007 adding more bull fuel for the stock market. On-line travel company
EXPE jumps +3.2% on strong results. OWW is up +1.3% and PCLN +2.8% riding the
Expedia coattails. PCAR is up +2% on an upgrade.
WTIC oil briefly falls under 80 and the average US gasoline price
is at 3.00 per gallon slipping below. C gains +0.4% today the bad news last
night about restating earnings long forgotten. Silly things like fundamentals,
earnings, valuations and technical’s do not matter. All that matters is the
central bankers pumping the stock market higher with easy money. Traders are
partying like its 1999.
The Dow, IBB (biotech) and UTIL and XLU (utilities) print
new all-time record highs. The Dow Industrials confirm the all-time highs on
the Dow Transports which verifies the bullish rally from a Dow Theory
perspective. TRAN, however, does not print a new all-time high today but is a
hair away. Utilities may drift lower due to lackluster earnings from D. The
Nasdaq prints a new 14-1/2 year high.
At noon time, the 2-year yield is 0.50%. 5-year 1.62%.
10-year 2.34%. Utilities, XLU and UTIL, are the only negative sector after
printing new all-time highs this morning. 124 of the S&P 500 stocks (25%) are
printing fresh new one-year highs including DIS, HUM, MMM and FDX. The market bullishness
is off the charts. Traders are high-fiving each other in a euphoric celebration
of central banker easy money. The only flies in the ointment are copper trading
down and volatility remaining oddly elevated with the up tape.
At 1 PM, equities continue sideways at the highs. The SPX is
up 20 points, +1%, to 2014. The Dow is up 181 points, +1%, to 17375. DD, JPM, V
and INTC are leading the way higher. The Nasdaq is up 62 points, +1.4%, to
4628. The RUT is up 15 points, +1.3%, to 1170. Oil, gold, silver and copper all
trail lower on the stronger dollar index with USD up +0.9% to 86.83. Euro 2527.
The 10-year yield is 2.33%. Gold miners are slapped. NEM -7%. ABX -2.4%. AUY
-8%.
The bullish sentiment is off the charts and more euphoric
than when the stock market was at the all-time highs one month ago. Traders,
analysts and economists remain continually bullish regardless of market direction.
Princeton Securities NYSE floor trader Ben Willis says that stocks will end the
year at new all-time highs. Money manager Ric Edelman says “buy the dips.”
Mizuho Securities strategist Carmine Grigoli reiterates his SPX 2150 target and
says this may be conservative (he expects the SPX to print even higher). WFC
manager John Manley says all the metrics that pushed stocks higher remain in
place. Manley says, “We are not at high valuations” and “nowhere close to a
bear market.”
A Virgin Galactic air ship, owned by billionaire Richard
Branson, crashes in the Mojave Desert during a test flight. One pilot is killed
and another severely injured. Virgin Galactic is striving to provide the first
commercial space flight service for the general public at $250K per ride. The
first commercial flights were supposed to occur this year but had already been
pushed forward to early 2015. Are you ready to sign up? Interestingly, Russian
rocket engines were used for both the Virgin Galactic tragedy and the rocket
explosion that occurred on the launch pad in a separate incident two days ago
although the story is developing. The fuel formula is believed to be the cause
of the tragedy. The Virgin Galactic program suffers a serious setback and the
first commercial space flights will likely be delayed into 2016 or later.
At 3 PM, the SPX is at 2012 dancing to and fro along the
September all-time closing high at 2011. The all-time intraday high is 2019.26
on 9/19/14 and the all-time closing high is 2011.17 on 9/18/14. The SPX is up
18 points, +0.9%. The Dow is up 153 points, +0.9%, to 17347. The COMPQ is up 53
points, +1.1%, to 4619. The RUT is up 15 points, +1.3%, to 1171. The
computerized trading robots are taking over late day moving the four major
indexes higher in unison.
Farm Prices show the low grain prices continuing. The CORN
ETF is down about -50% off its 2012 high but has recovered about +14% over the
last month. The JO coffee ETF has doubled over the last year but falls -18%
over the last month. SGG, the sugar ETN, has collapsed from the 2011 top at 105
to 40, -62%, however, the weekly chart is positively diverged from a technical
perspective and likely an attractive candidate for a long play. Ditto the CANE
ETF. Sugar may become sweet again for the months ahead.
In the final one-half hour, there is $1.7 billion in orders
to buy, the highest level seen in many weeks, which will push the market up to
the intraday highs into the closing bell. Sure enough, the SPX is pumped higher
starting at 3:24 PM at 2010 and ending at 2018 at the closing bell an
eight-handle move, +0.4%.
The day ends with the equity markets gapping higher on the
Japan stimulus that creates a global short-covering rally. Halloween is a trick
for the bears and treat for the bulls. The SPX gains 23 points, +1.2%, to 2018
exactly as the S&P futures indicated when the Japanese shock and awe was announced
overnight. The SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 2018.05 but the
all-time intraday high remains in place at 2019.26 from 9/19/14. The HOD is
2019.19 falling only about a buck short of printing a new all-time record
intraday high.
The Dow is up 195 points, +1.1%, to 17391, printing a new
all-time intraday high at 17395.54 and new all-time closing high at 17390.52.
The Dow Industrials print new highs confirming the new highs in the Dow
Transports from a Dow Theory perspective signaling further upside in the broad
indexes. The trannies, however, were unable to print a new high in today’s
action.
The COMPQ gains 65 points, +1.4%, to 4631, a new 14-1/2 year
record high. The Nasdaq is nearing 5K the peak of the dotcom bubble in early
2000. The Russell 2000 Index gains 18 points, +1.5%, to 1174 lagging the other
major indexes and not yet back to the July all-time record high above 1210.
For the week, the SPX gains +2.7% building on last week’s
strong gains. The Dow is up +3.5% on the week and the COMPQ gains +3.3%. The RUT
small caps explode +4.9% during the week. The NYA gains +2.5%. Semiconductors
print a strong recovery with the SOX up +4.7% this week. Biotech stocks, IBB
gain +2.7%. Financials, XLF, are up +3.2% this week. Energy lags with XLE up
+2.1%.
The twelve-day rally is a phenomenal parabolic move higher
that began with Fed’s Bullard comments that more QE is on the way. In about two
weeks time, the SPX moves from 1820 to 2018, a huge 200 handle turnaround,
nearly +11%. The power of the central bankers is impressive although obscene. Free markets died in late 2008 and early 2009 when the Fed bailed out the banks
and other companies such as AIG and GM and began the quantitative easing. The
Dow moves from 15860 to 17396, 1536 points, nearly +10% over the last few days.
The COMPQ is up from 4123 to 4642, a ridiculous 519 points, nearly +13%! The
RUT rallies from 1040 to 1174, 134 points, +13%! Major indexes simply do not
move over +10% in a matter of days unless goosed by the central bankers.
The dollar/yen is 112.31 a huge move this week considering
the currency pair was under 109 only one day ago. This is an obscene move for
currencies but the power of the central bankers appears limitless. Euro 1.2533.
Pound 1.60. The USD dollar index is 86.913 up from 85.200, +2%, in only 48
hours time. The Japanese yen, XJY, weakens due to the BOJ money printing,
collapsing from 92.60 to 89.04, -3.8%, over the last three days. The central
banks are the market. The 10-year yield is 2.34%. The Japan 10-year JGB yield
is a paltry 0.457%.
The utility sector, UTIL and XLU, print new all-time record
highs before retreating and ending the day negative in the up tape. UTIL tops
at 599 and XLU at 45.63. The weekly uptrend in utilities signals a strong stock
market moving forward. The biotech sector continues to pound higher with IBB
printing a new all-time high at 303 before retreating to the flat line. The
healthcare sector also prints new all-time highs with XLV at 68. There are new
all-time highs in many other sectors and stocks.
AAPL prints another new all-time record high above 108 for the
38th record high of the year. CNTL, a potential takeover target, jumps +13%. C
finishes +0.7% higher despite the restatement of earnings. Banking analyst Mike
Mayo, using a Halloween metaphor, says, Citigroup is “like free candy at these
prices.”
The bullish parade of sentiment by traders and analysts is
unstoppable. CNBC television commentator Robert Frank says, “Stay in the market
even when it’s tough.” UBS strategist Jim Lacamp says headwinds have become
tailwinds and he comments on the ongoing Keynesian stimulus saying, “the market
likes it and it will keep us going for a while.” Matrix Asset Advisors
strategist David Katz says November and December are typically good months for
the stock market and “Stocks will trade higher.” As the stock market prints new
all-time record highs, key economic bellwether copper sells off, a coupon
company, GRPN, catapults +22%, and the camera-on-a-stick company, GPRO, jumps
+13%. What does this tell you?
When traders were expecting the ECB to pump the markets higher
with stimulus, instead the Japanese government pension fund and the BOJ fire a
double-whammy money bazooka creating a shock and awe wave of easy money. Traders
expect a further upside orgy with ECB President Draghi announcing stimulus next
Thursday at the ECB meeting or in the weeks ahead. The central bankers are the
market; can it be any more obvious? Bullish traders are celebrating into the
weekend raping the market upside with the central banker’s easy money.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.