THURSDAY 10/1/15; First Day of Trading for Q3 (Oct-Nov-Dec); Global PMI’s; Russia Aggression in Syria; Challenger Job-Cut Report; MKC; ISM Mfg Index; MU

At 8:50 AM EST Tokyo time (7:50 PM EST Wednesday evening), US futures are negative. S&P -5. Dow -37. Nasdaq -6. Euro 1.1169. 

















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....Lew says the US government has enough money to operate until 11/5/15. After that extraordinary measures will be needed to keep the government open. The timing is interesting considering that republican House speaker Boehner resigns on 10/31/15 only a few days before the new Lew deadline for raising the debt ceiling limit. The budget bill just passed extended the deadline for raising the debt ceiling limit to December but Lew is moving the goal posts closer in time. The debt ceiling drama will continue over the coming weeks and the markets must face further uncertainty.

WEDNESDAY 9/30/15; EOM; EOQ3; ADP Employment Report; PAYX; Chicago PMI; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; European and US Stocks Rally; Russia Begins Air Strikes in Syria

SPX 1884. INDU 16049. COMPQ 4517. RUT 1084. Euro 1.1254. Dollar/yen 119.77. Pound 1.5155. US dollar index 95.895.

WTIC oil 44.90. Brent oil 47.94. Natural gas 2.587. Gold 1127. Silver 14.59. Copper 2.257.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.653%, 5-year 1.385%, 10-year 2.06%, 30-year 2.858%. German bund 0.581%. Japan 10-year yield 0.353%.

The NIKK is trading 



















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............ astonishing that the stock market continually ignores geopolitical events. Before the Federal Reserve and other central bankers began printing money in 2009, the stock market would always react to geopolitical events. There is likely a built-in complacency in markets due to the perceived multi-year cushion provided by the Fed’s easy money policies.

In the evening, Fed’s Brainard avoids commenting on monetary policy following Yellen’s lead about five hours earlier. She comments on the challenges facing community banks.

TUESDAY 9/29/15; Cascading Global Selloff Hits Asia; Consumer Confidence; AAPL Collapses -3%; DMND

Asian indexes are set to open lower. Nikkei Index futures are pointing to a drop of about 200 points. South Korea markets remains closed for the Chuseok holiday. S&P futures are 
























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...expectation was for a build of only 102K barrels. WTIC oil drops under 45 to 44.85. The EIA Oil Inventory data is released at 10:30 AM EST tomorrow. Higher inventories will create lower oil prices which creates weakness in oil, gas and energy stocks that will create softness in the broad indexes.

It is well documented how the so-called economic recovery over the last few years is the weakest post-WW II recovery ever. Of special interest is that the current recovery is the only recovery in history that has occurred with median household income actually dropping. Inflation, that the Federal Reserve tries to create with the 6-1/2 years of obscene Keynesian money printing, cannot exist without wage inflation.

MONDAY 9/28/15; Spain Election; CALM; Personal Income and Outlays; Fed Speak; European and US Stocks Collapse; Biotech Beaten; Energy Spanked; Commodities Crushed; High-Yield Bonds in Turmoil

At 8 AM Tokyo (7 PM EST Sunday evening in the States), US futures begin the week on a down beat. S&P -10. Dow -68. Nasdaq -23. Nikkei Index futures are set to open lower. Dollar/yen 120.51. Aussie dollar 0.7014. Markets in Hong Kong (HSI), South Korea (KOSPI) and Taiwan (Taiex) are closed for holidays. The Harvest Moon day occurs in Korea.

Today is the one year anniversary of the Occupy Central (Umbrella Revolution) movement in Hong Kong when students 






























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Fed’s Williams says a rate hike should occur “sometime this year.” Williams expresses concern over the Federal Reserve waiting too long to hike rates.

In the evening, Presidents Obama and Putin meet. Both leaders walk in front of cameras at the UN and shake hands the first formal face to face meeting in two years. The discussion focuses on fighting the ISIS Islamist militants in Syria and Iraq. The meeting lasts 95 minutes far longer than expected. Neither leader comments after the meeting.

SUNDAY 9/27/15; Spain Catalonia Elections; Supermoon Lunar Eclipse

Election day arrives in the rich northeastern Catalonia region of Spain. Catalans flock to the polls in what is described as













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..... Earth is exactly between the sun and the moon. The supermoon occurs about once every two or three decades the last occurrence was 1982. The moon is at the  closest point to Earth which impacts gravitational forces so there may be an increase in earthquakes and volcanic events around the supermoon. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon once each month.

SATURDAY 9/26/15

SPX 1931. INDU 16315. COMPQ 4687. RUT 1123. DAX 9689. CAC 4481. FTSE 6109. MIB 21339. IBEX 9519. The Spain Catalonia election is tomorrow. PSI 5060. NIKK 17881. SPASX200 5042. KOSPI 1943. SSEC 3092. HSI 21186. BSE 25864.

Euro 1.1188. Dollar/yen 120.55. Pound 1.518. USD 96.23. WTIC oil 45.34. Brent oil 48.60. Natty gas 2.555. Gold 1146. Silver 15.095. Copper 2.2815.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.6996%, 5-year 1.4759%, 10-year 2.1658%, 30-year 2.9596. German bund 0.642%.

Adidas announces a ‘sports infinity recycling program’ that 




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Pope Francis continues his State-side trip traveling to Philadelphia the ‘City of Brotherly Love’.  Over the last few days, the Pope’s schedule is jam-packed full of many events and appearances. The aged pontiff displays energy and enthusiasm and a positive message.

FRIDAY 9/25/15; Yellen Rally Boosts European and US Stocks; FINL; BBRY; GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Consumer Sentiment; Biotech Bludgeoned; Copper Retreats

At 8:16 AM Tokyo (7:16 PM EST Thursday evening), Fed Chair Yellen’s health becomes a topic of discussion after she became weak and disorientated at the 


























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Xi stopped on the West Coast to begin his trip to America where a shameful display of Silicon Valley CEO’s lined up one after another to kneel and worship the communist. What has the world come to when America, and the West, must depend on a communist country to drive economic growth?

A photograph circulates on the internet dubbed the “$2.5 Trillion Photo.” Xi is in the center surrounded by corporate big wigs kissing the communist’s butt including Satya Nadella (MSFT), Tim Cook (AAPL), Jeff Bezos (AMZN), Ginni Rometty (IBM), Lisa Su (AMD), Jack Ma (BABA), John Chambers (CSCO) who is supposed to have stepped away from the leadership role at Cisco, Mark Zuckerberg (FB), Reid Hoffman (LNKD), Jerry Yang (YHOO co-founder) and many others.

THURSDAY 9/24/15; Taiwan and Norway Cut Rates; ACN; KBH; Durable Goods; New Home Sales; BBBY; CTAS; NKE; JBL; PIR; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Japan is set to begin trading for the first time since last Friday idled by a string of three holidays this week. Nikkei Index futures point to a 




















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had been promising a rate hike all year long so she likely feels compelled to go ahead with the hike otherwise risk a loss of credibility. Futures begin moving higher on her statement; the central bankers are the market.

While finishing her remarks, Yellen begins pausing for several seconds between sentences. She continues speaking but becomes confused and grows weak. She is helped off the stage and receives medical attention. Dehydration is blamed for her sudden weakness. S&P futures are up +5.

WEDNESDAY 9/23/15; Autumn Begins in Northern Hemisphere; Yom Kippur; Global PMI’s; Global Selloff Cascades to Asia; SCS

At 8:50 AM Tokyo (7:50 AM Shanghai and Hong Kong; 7:50 PM EST Tuesday evening), US futures are negative. S&P -5. Dow -40. Nasdq -13. Euro 1.1122. Dollar/yen 120.10. Pound 1.5351. Aussie dollar is 0.7075 under the 0.71 level; commodity currencies are punished the last 
























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........ 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are in -10% correction mode off their respective tops. 30 of these loser stocks are over $100 billion in market cap including GILD off -14%, DIS -16%, C -17%, INTC -24% and CVX the worst performer down -38%.

Fed’s Lockhart is a talkative character this week speaking three days in a row. Lockhart says market participants need to focus on the positive direction of the US economy and pay less attention to the emerging market turmoil. Lockhart talks up the economy ahead of Fed Chair Yellen speaking tomorrow after the closing bell. Congress is in discussions concerning the raising of the debt ceiling to avert a potential US government shutdown in seven days.

TUESDAY 9/22/15; European Stocks Selloff Ending in a Bloodbath; Volkswagen Crashes; Brazil Real Tags 4.0; AZO; KMX; CAG; CCL; DRI; GIS; US Stocks Selloff; Commodities Collapse Creating Global Deflation Worries; 2-Year Note Auction

Asian indexes begin trading higher. Japan markets remain closed on holiday. The SPASX200 is up +0.9% and KOSPI gains +0.1% in the early going. Aussie energy stocks rally higher on the buoyant oil prices. Korean carmakers are motoring over +2% higher; perhaps Kia Motors and Hyundai Motor will benefit from Volkswagen’s troubles.

At 9:51 AM Tokyo (8:51 PM Monday evening in the States; 8:51 AM Shanghai and Hong Kong), US futures are a touch negative. S&P -2. Dow -15. Nasdaq -6.

Euro 1.1194. Dollar/yen 120.41. Pound 1.5513. USD 95.89. WTIC oil 46.31. Brent oil 48.53. Natty 2.57. Gold 1133. Silver 15.19. Copper 2.387.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.71%, 5-year 1.49%, 10-year 2.20%, 30-year 3.02%. The 2-10 spread is 149 bips. German bund 0.684%.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) cuts its 






















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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton opposes the Keystone XL Pipeline project after months of sitting on the fence. The project would create thousands of jobs in the Midwest but since most of the folks in the heartland vote republican, Clinton, like President Obama, refuse to approve the project. By opposing the Keystone pipeline, democratic politicians gain favor with environmentalists.

In addition, the president is friends with Warren Buffett that owns the railroads that make money from the unit trains hauling oil in tanker cars. Even though transporting oil by pipeline is safer and has less environmental impact than shipping by rail, the president opposes the pipeline since shipping oil by rail enriches his friend Buffett. Note that politicians only care about themselves and their own career and routinely throw the middle class and poor under the bus.

In the evening, Fed’s Lockhart repeats remarks from yesterday stating the case for a rate hike before the end of this year. Lockhart looks for the US economy to improve into year end although he is concerned about China’s economy.

MONDAY 9/21/15; LEN; Existing Home Sales; Biotech Stocks Beaten; RHT

Japan markets are closed early this week due to the Respect for the Aged Day holiday that is always the third Monday in September. Australian and Korea stocks are headed for a soft open. At 8 AM Tokyo time (7 PM Sunday evening in the States), US futures begin the week on the negative side. S&P -2. Dow -20. Nasdaq -6.

Euro 1.1296. The euro was above 1.14 on Friday. Euro/yen 135.56. Dollar/yen 120.01. Pound 1.5522. Aussie dollar 0.7190. Mexican peso 16.6233. Canadian dollar 1.3215. Dollar/yuan 6.3643.

WTIC oil 44.83. Brent oil 47.57. Natural gas is 2.58 under the 2.60 level. Natty demand drifts lower as households do not need air conditioning with the cooler Fall weather approaching in the northern hemisphere while it is not yet cold enough to require heating. Gold 1138. Silver 15.15. Copper is down -0.6% to 2.3725.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.68%, 5-year 1.44%, 10-year 2.13%, 30-year 2.94%. The 2-10 spread is 145 bips.

Scott Morrison is named the 























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Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin, drops out of the GOP race. Walker faded in the polls viewed as a one-trick pony on a platform that fought the unions; he has no gravitas or charisma.

Pope Francis travels to the United States from Cuba tomorrow. US law enforcement are already on the lookout for terrorists and other criminals that are wearing uniforms impersonating officers and other security personnel. Intelligence reports warn that the terrorists are adopting this technique of wearing uniforms to gain access to crowded places to carry out nefarious deeds. US authorities are focused on this threat and preparations are in place.

SUNDAY 9/20/15; Greece Election; European Migrant Crisis

Pope Francis is in Cuba, arriving yesterday, beginning his 10-day trip. The Pope will conduct mass at Revolution Square in a few hours and will 













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.... result in a solid victory for PM Tsipras retaining power over the troubled island nation. Tsipras’s Syriza Party receives 36% of the vote with the main opposition party far behind at 28%. The election is not as close as expected. Tsipras vows to create a period of stability for Greece and says he feels vindicated by the election. Tsipras receives a mandate to continue the path ahead despite his failure in reducing austerity measures as he promised when first rising to power. Greeks voted for Tsipras since he at least puts up a fight while other politicians always roll over and concede to whatever the European leaders and ECB demand. Greece only survives financially with the ongoing bailouts provided by Europe.

SATURDAY 9/19/15

SPX 1958. INDU 16385. COMPQ 4827. RUT 1163. DAX 9916. CAC 4536. FTSE 6104. MIB 21515. IBEX 9847. PSI 5075. NIKK 18070. SPASX200 5171. KOSPI 1996. SSEC 3098. HSI 21921. BSE 26219.

Euro 1.1309. Dollar/yen 119.98. Pound 1.5535. WTIC oil 44.98. Brent oil 47.47. Natural gas 2.605. Gold 1139. Silver 15.15. Copper 2.38.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.68%, 5-year 1.44%, 10-year 2.134%, 30-year 2.93%. The 2-10 spread is 145 basis points and was above 150 only a couple days ago. The yield curve flattens.

The US begins talks with Russia concerning































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Fed’s Williams voices concern that waiting too long to raise rates may force the Federal Reserve’s hand in the weeks ahead and require a steep and sharp hike that would disrupt markets. Williams said the first rate hike should occur by year end. Williams has been bragging about a strong US economy and need for a rate hike the last few months but concedes that the economy is sluggish currently.

The Fed may announce a rate hike at either the October or December meeting. Fed Chair Over the last few months, Yellen has been hinting that the first rate hike should occur this year. A press conference would have to be called if the hike occurs in October. In December, there are market liquidity concerns due to year end when volume is much lower so market moves may be dramatic and violent. Comically, Williams says, “We do not want to create uncertainty.”

Fed’s Bullard says he was in favor of a rate hike last week and he says his colleagues did not present a strong enough case for maintaining ZIRP. Bullard is not a voting member. Bullard says, “The case for policy normalization is quite strong.” Bullard says instead of beginning a clear path forward, the Fed only served to increase uncertainty about the economy.

FRIDAY 9/18/15; BOJ Minutes; China Home Prices; Migrant Crisis; FTSE “Fat Finger” Flash Crash; DAX at -20% Bear Market; Quadruple Witching OpEx; Fed Aftermath; European and US Stocks Selloff; France Downgraded

At 8:50 AM Tokyo (7:50 PM EST Thursday evening), Asian indexes are pointing to a lower open. US futures are flat. S&P -1. Dow -7. Nasdaq -1. Euro 1.1393. Dollar/yen 120.07. Pound 1.5559. Aussie dollar 0.7186. Dollar/yuan 6.3658.

WTIC oil 46.79. Brent oil 49.08. Natural gas 2.64. Gold 1132. Silver 15.13. Copper 2.4610.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.69%, 5-year 1.48%, 10-year 2.19%, 30-year 3.01%. The 2-10 spread is 150 bips.

At 9 AM Tokyo (8 PM EST Thursday evening), the Nikkei Index, KOSPI and ASX 200 each open lower. The BOJ minutes say the target towards +2% inflation is on track. The BOJ says the current policies are working. The comments are laughable. The BOJ monetary policies are not creating economic positivity no matter what Governor Kuroda says. Stocks roll over a few minutes into trading. The NIKK is tanking



























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After the closing bell, under the cover of Friday night darkness, France’s credit rating is downgraded by Moody’s from AA1 to AA2. Moody’s says the weak global economy creates a challenging environment for France.

The investigation into government employees and the Whitehouse continues concerning the lies appearing in ISIS intelligence reports over the last couple years. The reports paint a rosy picture for the Obama administration’s policy against ISIS in Syria and Iraq overstating the casualties of ISIS fighters while bolstering the numbers for Iraqi troops. Investigators are seeking whistleblowers to find out who was giving the instructions to change the information in the documents to paint a rosy picture.

THURSDAY 9/17/15; Japan Imports/Exports; Citizenship Day (Constitution Day); RAD; Housing Starts; FOMC Historic Rate Decision; Fed Chair Yellen Press Conference; Fed Maintains ZIRP Policy with No Rate Hike; Fed Becomes the “Central Banker to the World”; ADBE

Asian indexes are ready to follow the US rally. Nikkei Index futures and Aussie markets are set to open higher. New Zealand GDP is lackluster at +2.4% year-on-year under last quarter’s +2.6% and missing the +2.5% expectations.

Japan Imports are down -3.1% worse than the -2.2% expected but a touch better than the prior month’s -3.2%. Exports are up +3.1% versus the +4.0% expectations and last month’s +7.6%. The Japan August trade balance is 569.7 billion yen a miss wider than expected. The trade data is disappointing. Dollar/yen 120.56. Chile is receiving strong aftershocks from the large quake occurring a short time ago.

At 9 AM Tokyo (8 PM EST Wednesday evening in the States; 9 PM Santiago, Chile), S&P -2. Dow -14. Nasdaq -4. Euro 1.1289. Dollar/yen 120.56. Pound 1.5509. Aussie dollar 0.7195.

WTIC oil 47.35. Brent oil 49.75. Gold 1120. Silver 14.89. Copper is up +0.6% to 2.4675.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.81%, 5-year 1.61%, 10-year 2.29%, 30-year 3.08%.

Asian indexes open higher. The NIKK gains +1.1%. Dollar/yen 120.57. ASX 200 +0.4%. Aussie stocks are catching a bid higher from the strength in energy stocks. KOSPI begins up +0.3%. New Zealand stocks gain +0.6%. The joy from the United States starts Asia off on a positive note.

Copper futures are spiking higher +0.7% as 















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.....  that if the Fed did not provide the first rate hike it would at least talk hawkishly saying that the hike is coming soon. This is not the case. The economy is lackluster and weak by Yellen’s own account.

Market participants ponder ‘if not now, then when will the Fed hike rates’? If a recession occurs, the US and entire world is in deep trouble since there is no ammunition available to stop an economic slide (the key Fed rate is already at zero and cannot be lowered more unless rates go negative an outcome that is summarily dismissed by Yellen).

It is shameful that the FOMC started this Keynesian path with QE 1 in March 2009 and 6-1/2 years later has only succeeded in making the wealthy filthy rich since they own large stock portfolios. The central bankers should be ashamed of themselves but instead perform the bidding of the large investment banks since Fed members will be rewarded with lucrative speaking engagements once they leave office.

WEDNESDAY 9/16/15; S&P Cuts Japan Credit Rating; US 2-Year Yield 0.82% at 4-Year Record High; FDX; Two-Day FOMC Meeting Begins; CPI (Consumer Price Index); Migrant Crisis Turns Violent; US Stocks Rally; ORCL; MLHR

Asian traders are awake and ready for a joyous day ahead feeding off the US rally. The Nikkei Index futures are pointing to an opening gain of about +1%. Dollar/yen 120.43.

At 8:13 AM Tokyo (7:13 AM Hong Kong and Shanghai; 7:13 PM EST Tuesday evening in the States), US futures are flat. S&P +1. Dow +5. Nasdaq +1. Euro 1.1275. Dollar/yen 120.38. Pound 1.5345. USD 95.61. Aussie dollar 0.713. Dollar/yuan 6.3699.

WTIC oil 45.06. Brent oil 47.75. Natural gas 2.73. Gold 1106. Silver 14.36. Copper 2.431.

US Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.80%, 5-year 1.61%, 10-year 2.29%, 30-year 3.07%. The 2-10 spread is 149 basis points steepening slightly and the 5-30 spread is 146 bips. German bund 0.745%. The US-German 10-year spread is 155 bips. The steeper yield curve, albeit two or three bips, whipped US traders into a frenzy yesterday with the bulls buying any bank with a heartbeat.

Singapore pollution index is well over 200 which is very unhealthy air. Indonesian fires that are burning land to expand plantations are creating 













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............ other candidates begin attacking his record. Jeb Bush admits he smoked pot 40 years ago; others on stage likely have as well but do not want to admit it. Christie and Kasich plan to enforce the Federal laws concerning marijuana which would bring trouble to Colorado and other states as well as hurt medical users of pot. Marijuana is a proven positive medical treatment for epileptics, pain patients and chemo patients to help boost appetite so Christie and Kasich appear out of touch. Fiorina mentions the loss of her child years ago due to drug addiction.

The United States election for president of the United States (POTUS) is the first week of November 2016 only about 13 months away. Primary elections begin in about four months. President Obama will leave office and the new president will be sworn in January 2017 about 15 months away.

TUESDAY 9/15/15; Turnbull Named Australian Prime Minister; BOJ Policy Decision; Retail Sales; Empire State Mfg Survey; Industrial Production; Business Inventories; US Stocks Rally; Treasury Yields Run Higher; 2-Year Yield 0.815% a 4-Year High

In Australia, Malcolm Turnbull challenges Tony Abbot for the prime minister position and wins with a 54-44 vote. The top position is a revolving door with Turnbull the fifth prime minister in Australia in eight years. Aussie dollar 0.7141.

Asian indexes begin trading with the NIKK up +0.4%. The SPASX200 and KOSPI are each down marginally. Australian stocks trade lower due to the prime minister change creating uncertainty. US futures are
















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.............closing bell, Microsoft announces a 16% increase in the dividend a nickel rise to 36 cents. MSFT trades up +0.3%. HPQ announces plans to ax 25K to 30K employees as Hewlett Packard prepares for the split into two companies, HP Enterprise and HP Inc, in a couple months. Hewlett is splitting the computer and printer businesses. 30000 people may want to rethink the names and gifts on this year’s holiday shopping list.

The banks continue to lay off employees, tech companies such as HPQ are reducing the ranks and GE sends 500 US jobs to France, Hungary and China. These jobs are high-paying jobs that are replaced with low-wage MCD-type jobs. “Do you want some fries with ‘dat burger?”

MONDAY 9/14/15; Rosh Hashanah; BOJ Two-Day Policy Meeting Begins

The Jewish New Year Rosh Hashanah, Yom Teruah, the Feast of Trumpets, begins at sundown last evening. The old Wall Street adage is, “Sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur.” Yom Kippur is 9/23/15 beginning at sunset on 9/22/15. The track record of this old adage is sketchy depending on how the data is analyzed but in general, stocks would be expected to trade soft into the middle of next week (9/23/15) where a potential rally would 


















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Pope Francis is planning to visit the Unites States in one week and government officials say a terrorist plot has been foiled that was planned against the Holy Father. Americans have no choice but to believe the officials that say a plot was thwarted but in reality the NSA and government media operations are simply creating the narrative they want the American public to absorb ahead of the pontiff’s visit. The Pope plans to visit New York, Washington, DC, and Philadelphia.