SATURDAY 9/19/15

SPX 1958. INDU 16385. COMPQ 4827. RUT 1163. DAX 9916. CAC 4536. FTSE 6104. MIB 21515. IBEX 9847. PSI 5075. NIKK 18070. SPASX200 5171. KOSPI 1996. SSEC 3098. HSI 21921. BSE 26219.

Euro 1.1309. Dollar/yen 119.98. Pound 1.5535. WTIC oil 44.98. Brent oil 47.47. Natural gas 2.605. Gold 1139. Silver 15.15. Copper 2.38.

Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.68%, 5-year 1.44%, 10-year 2.134%, 30-year 2.93%. The 2-10 spread is 145 basis points and was above 150 only a couple days ago. The yield curve flattens.

The US begins talks with Russia concerning































[Text is Redacted: Purchase September 2015-09 to Read the Complete Chronology]

Fed’s Williams voices concern that waiting too long to raise rates may force the Federal Reserve’s hand in the weeks ahead and require a steep and sharp hike that would disrupt markets. Williams said the first rate hike should occur by year end. Williams has been bragging about a strong US economy and need for a rate hike the last few months but concedes that the economy is sluggish currently.

The Fed may announce a rate hike at either the October or December meeting. Fed Chair Over the last few months, Yellen has been hinting that the first rate hike should occur this year. A press conference would have to be called if the hike occurs in October. In December, there are market liquidity concerns due to year end when volume is much lower so market moves may be dramatic and violent. Comically, Williams says, “We do not want to create uncertainty.”

Fed’s Bullard says he was in favor of a rate hike last week and he says his colleagues did not present a strong enough case for maintaining ZIRP. Bullard is not a voting member. Bullard says, “The case for policy normalization is quite strong.” Bullard says instead of beginning a clear path forward, the Fed only served to increase uncertainty about the economy.