Sunday, March 23, 2014

MONDAY 3/24/14; PMI's

Russian Ruble continues weakening to 36.2825. Aussie dollar is strengthening slightly to 0.9093. ASX 200 leaks slightly lower as the new week of trading begins. Dollar/yen 102.25. Japan markets were closed on Friday and reopen today. Sinopec misses profit estimates. WTIC oil is under 100 at 99.25 and Brent crude oil is under 107.

Chinese HSBC PMI is 48.1, lower for the fifth straight month, down from the previous 48.5 indicating a slowing China economy. Traders ignore the negative news since stimulus programs will now be expected to boost the Chinese economy; the bad news is good news scenario. The Aussie dollar bumps higher to 0.9106. Australian and Asia stocks rally higher. NIKK jumps +1.8% receiving fuel from the weaker yen as the dollar/yen moves higher to 102.54. SSEC +0.9%. HSI +1.9%. KOSPI +0.6%.

Euro zone PMI falls to 53 below expectations. Germany’s PMI is weaker than expected at 53.8 but France PMI unexpectedly jumps over the 50% level to 51.9. The expectation was for France to remain in contraction under 50. The ECB says it “stands ready to take decisive action” to boost the economy so the euro drops to 1.3789. Europe trades negatively across the board impacted from the ongoing Ukraine, Crimea and Turkey turmoil. Turkey’s 10-year bond remains elevated at 9.5%....



[Text is Redacted: Purchase March 2014-03 to Read the Complete Chronology]






Many market participants say there are no bubbles in the market for the simple reason that too many folks are starting to call attention to bubbles. Bubbles do usually burst after a melt-up and blow-off top occurs when everyone is chasing the bubble creating frenzy to the point where it collapses the bubble, however, the Internet has changed the playing field in stock trading in recent years. Retail traders are far savvier these days and receive information in much shorter time frames. Years ago the average stock was held for five years, now it is five months. Perhaps the current bubbles bursting in biotech, high-flying momo stocks, 3-D stocks, dividend stocks and high-yield bonds, are occurring under a new paradigm. Those waiting for bubbles to be identified by the old methods of excessive euphoria may have already missed the top as the retail trader is far smarter this time around. The dumb money may not be as dumb anymore.

Permabull Jim Paulsen with Wells Capital Management calls for SPX 1900 and potentially 2000 this year despite any selloff in the near term. That is 150 SPX handles higher from here. Traders and analysts remain strongly bullish. Sadly, Malaysian authorities say that Flight 370 went down in the Indian Ocean beyond any reasonable doubt. The actual cause of the tragedy remains a mystery. The families of loved ones lost on the doomed flight are grief-stricken since they now must assume the passengers and crew have perished.


After the bell, SONC pops +6.4% on an earnings beat. Cloud storage company Box files S-1 documents to list as an IPO and raise $250 million under the ticker BOX. Box competitor Dropbox will likely file for an IPO moving forward as well. The tech IPO’s are hot these days just like the dotcom bubble days in 1999-2000.

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