THURSDAY 3/27/14; IMF Provides Aid to Ukraine; GDP; MSFT CEO Nadella Speaks

The New Zealand Dollar hits a record high at 0.8676 as their rate hike period begins. Asia markets are generally lower following the US negativity. The NIKK gains +1% after a large drop at the opening bell since the dollar/yen recovers from a low at 101.71 to 102.20. Sharp and Fast Retailing both receive +3% gains. Japanese banks are weak. KOSPI gains +0.7% with Samsung +4% higher. China markets are negative and a large shipping company, China Shipping Container Lines, falls more than -2% after announcing losses; a troubling sign for the economy. Tencent loses lots of cents collapsing -6%. Gold breaks under 1300 so the gold and other metal miners are hit from -1% to -9% overnight. Gold and silver are down but copper is +1% higher a hair under 3.00. WTIC oil moves above 101. Brent crude oil is 107.59.

Turkish courts overturn the ban on Twitter but the ruling is meaningless. Twitter will be permitted to come back on line but only after an appeal which will probably occur after the Turkey elections; very convenient for PM Erdogan. President Obama visits the Pope at Vatican City. Norway’s central banker Karen Helene Ultveit-Moe stirs the political pot by speaking openly about creating a plan for when the oil reserves no longer support the Norwegian economy.

Ukraine bonds rise to a two-month high as the IMF provides a $15 billion aid package. In total, the West will provide about $27 billion in aid to Ukraine over the next couple years. Some of the money will no doubt find its way to Putin’s hands in Russia. Crimea, now taken over by Russia, has a $1.5 billion debt so plans are under development to make Crimea a gambling destination especially for wealthy Russian oligarchs. Is Crimea on the Black Sea the next Macau? Perhaps the future gamblers will be locked inside the casino and not allowed to leave until they lose all their money. The Russian Ruble is slightly weaker at 35.5968 but remains stationary showing that the sanctions are not creating any further problems at this time. Trouble will appear in Russia if the ruble moves to 37, 38, 39 and higher above 40, which represents a collapsing ruble currency. For now, the ruble is weak, but stable. The US foreign policy with Syria is viewed as a failure since very few chemical weapons are destroyed and Asaad continues to murder his citizens.

China’s leader Xi tours Europe signing billions in deals. Hollande welcomes Xi to France hoping for a slice of the China pie. UBS suspends Forex traders in Switzerland, Singapore and the US concerning the ongoing currency-trading scandals. European stocks trade lower across the board. The pound is 1.6569 but jumps to 1.6629 after strong UK retail sales are reported. Spain and Italy bonds rise (lower yields) as JPM chases into these instruments fully believing in the European recovery story.

[Text is Redacted: Purchase March 2014-03 to Read the Complete Chronology]

MSFT CEO Nadella speaks at his first official public media press event after taking the reins at Mr Softy. Nadella discusses the combination of cloud and mobile in today’s world. He unveils Office software for the iPad. The release immediately launches to the number one sales ranking in the Apple Store. The more extensive use of tablets to perform work better suited for laptops and desktops launches the debate about content-users versus content-creators. The Office suite faces challenges to make it appealing on a tablet due to the limited screen area; half of which will be taken up by the digital keyboard (unless using a detachable keyboard). Content-creators will likely remain with a sturdy laptop that can handle the daily demand. Content-users, that employ the tablets for gaming, shopping, surfing the Internet or watching a movie will likely show little interest in Office software. However, many analysts say the Office software offering for all tablets is long overdue and will boost profits in Microsoft’s services unit in the months ahead. Nadella is opening-up Microsoft software to all devices moving forward. MSFT trades lower -1%. INTC -0.3%.

The SPX uses the March starting number at 1859 as a ceiling and the starting number for the year at 1848 as support. Natty gas price moves +1.5% higher after inventories drop more than expected. Social gaming stocks are smacked today led by GME crumbling -7.3%. Social media stocks are up. TWTR +3.4%. KING loses -3% on its second day of trading dishing out sour candy. The House and Senate approve $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. Brazil is up strongly today with EWZ gaining +4.6% and PBR +7.7%. EEM +1.3%.

Turkey takes action against YouTube. PM Erdogan continues to limit and prevent citizens from accessing Twitter, Facebook and YouTube especially ahead of the elections. PVH bounces +1.3% but the retail sector is crumbling. RTH is down -2.2% and XRT is down -3.5% this week. CZR loses -4.5% at the gambling table. CAB trades -0.5% lower wounded by comments from CS. NMBL pops +5% on a positive media story. BBRY is downgraded and drops -1.5% ahead of earnings tomorrow morning.

The day ends with the SPX and Dow only marginally lower but the Nasdaq loses -0.5% and RUT small caps drop -0.4% down -3.5% for the week. The Nasdaq is negatively affected by the high-flyers crumbling such as NFLX and TWTR. For March, NFLX is down -18%, TSLA -15% and ZNGA -12%. TSLA, however, pops +4.3% today. XLF is down -0.5%. C gaps down puking -5.4%. XLK -0.4%. MSFT loses -1.1% after the Office for iPad announcement. KSS is a bright spot in retail popping +2.1% to a 5-month high.

Trannies are weak all day long. XOM gains +1.6% as WTIC crude oil gains +1% to 101.32. Higher oil means higher gasoline prices at the pump and provides another excuse for consumers to stay home. AA is a huge winner catapulting +6.2% with a potential ascending triangle pattern upside breakout. CLF pops +2.4%. The cyclicals are bid higher since traders believe in the global recovery story. GOGO goes in the down direction -2.4%. WMT and V are flat after Walmart accuses Visa of overcharging with unreasonable high swipe fees. SYMC pops +2.6% after its recent drubbing.

After the bell, RHT is up +4% on better than expected earnings. Guidance and the outlook for the year ahead are lowered so Red Hat price immediately drops to the flat line. CZR announces a share offering which will dilute the stock so it plummets -6%. The weakness in Caesars Entertainment in recent days is obviously due to insider trading that knew of this pending offering and jumped ship ahead of time letting suckers hold the bag. There are always two sets of rules in trading; one for the privileged insiders and one for everyone else. ZNGA pops in the AH’s on news that SAC Capital is buying shares.

Many stocks have fallen into bear markets. A -10% selloff is considered a correction move and a -20% selloff is considered a bear market. P is down -21.4% off the top, DD -22% and PCYC -28%; all three are in bear markets. NFLX now slips into a bear market at -20% losing 100 bucks off the 460 high. AMZN is down about -17% off its top definitely in correction mode on the verge of tumbling into a bear market. PCLN has slipped about -15% off its top. IBB is down -15% off the top representing the bubble popping in biotech. Homebuilders are hit with companies such as TOL and DHI down between -12% and -16%. AEO is down -30% off the top and other retailers are very challenged moving forward. Elon Musk receives the double whammy with SCTY down about -30% off the top and TSLA -22% from its top but do not worry he will not have to eat franks and beans for dinner.

Obamacare hits a milestone with 6 million sign-ups. Originally, the goal was 7 million needed by now (deadline is 3/31/14) to support the program but this was lowered to a 6 million target due to all the problems. The sign-ups are not enrollees, however, since the Whitehouse refuses to provide how many sign-ups have actually paid the premiums. Using California as a guideline, the actual payees run about 80% to 85% so the official enrollees into Obamacare may only be around 4.8 million to 5.1 million which is well under the 7 million needed to financially support the program. No worries, however, since the politicians will force taxpayers to bailout the ACA debacle in the years ahead.