Friday, September 5, 2014

FRIDAY 9/5/14; Monthly Jobs Report Disappoints at 142K; SPX New All-Time Record Closing High; TRAN New All-Time Record Highs

The dollar/yen prints at 105.70 at highs not seen since October 2008 due to the stronger dollar created by the weaker euro. The weaker yen that also contributes to a rising dollar/yen currency pair sends the Nikkei Index higher at the start of the session but as the dollar/yen leaks lo






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want a piece of BABA. The Alibaba offering will be the largest IPO of the year with a valuation of over $150 billion. YHOO jumps +1.4% on the news since it continue to hold a stake in BABA.

Fed’s Rosengren receives the Captain Obvious award for saying, “the August jobs number is very disappointing.” Rosengren says there remains “significant labor slack” the Fed’s favorite phrase for hinting that the easy money will continue flowing indefinitely. The stock market chooses to listen to the BABA and Rosengren market-pumping comments and ignores the sanction news sending stocks wildly higher into the closing bell. The SPX closes at the high.

The trading day and holiday-shortened week ends with the SPX up 10 points, +0.5%, printing a new all-time closing high at 2007.71. The all-time SPX intraday high occurs yesterday at 2011.04. The Dow gains 68 points, +0.4%, to 17137.36 less than one point away from the all-time closing high at 17138.20 on 7/16/14 seven weeks ago. All eyes will be watching on Monday to see if the Dow can finish the day with an 84 cent or more gain to print a new all-time closing high, or not.

The COMPQ is up 21 points, +0.5%, to 4583 recovering over 40 points off the intraday low printed right before this morning’s Fed POMO pump. The RUT small caps gain 3 points, +0.3%, to 1170. Tech and small caps did not provide leadership today or for the entire week. AAPL recovers +0.9% helping the Nasdaq and broader markets. SBUX gains +1%. Airlines are mixed with DAL down but UAL up +0.6%.

The 10-year yield moves higher to 2.46% with the stock market moving higher today. The 2.45%-2.51% is a critical resistance level for the 10-year Treasury. The bond bears (lower prices higher yields) looking for inflation win above 2.51% while the bond bulls (higher prices lower yields) looking for deflation win under 2.45%.

For the week, the SPX is up 0.2% continuing the five-week winning streak. The SPX weekly chart prints a doji candlestick (typically indicates a trend change) with the chart indicators such as RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow all negatively diverged. The Dow gains +0.2%, COMPQ +0.1% and RUT small caps are down -0.4%.

Trannies are on fire with TRAN up +2.3% this week printing new all-time record highs as the oil price weakens. WTIC oil loses -2.5% this week. Biotech takes a hit this week with IBB losing -2.2%. Consumer Staples, XLP, are up +1% and utilities, XLU, are up +0.9% providing market leadership. These sectors are safety plays so traders are seeking defensive strategies. Tech, XLK, is flat this week and energy, XLE, is down -1.7% much to the chagrin of long traders that continue to recommend energy stocks to Ma and Pa. NBR collapses -6.8% this week and DO pukes -4.7%. RIG -2.7%.

The dollar prints the biggest gain in 17 years against the euro. The euro is 1.2950 recovering off the 1.2918 low print. Gold drops -1.5% this week but bounces off the critical 1250-1260 support area. Gold miners are hit with GDX down -6.1% and GDXJ losing -6.7%. IAG -10%. NEM -4.1%. ABX -6.7%. The Lumber Index collapses -3.5% despite all the happy talk about the housing sector. Italy, Spain and Germany are big winners on the week with the Draghi joy and decreased tensions in Ukraine. EWI +3.2%. EWP +2.8%. EWG gains +1.6%.

A military plane carrying 100 Americans from Afghanistan to Dubai is forced to land in Iran after failing to provide a proper flight plan. The plane and passengers are permitted to continue after a short detention. Tensions continue in the Middle East.

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