Thursday, September 4, 2014

THURSDAY 9/4/14; BOJ, BOE and ECB Rate Decisions; ECB Announces ZIRP and Historic QE Program; JOY; ADP Employment Report; SPX, INDU and TRAN Print New All-Time Record Highs; LOCO

Dollar/yen 104.95. The BOJ ends a two-day meeting maintaining the ongoing record easing program as expected. Since the dollar/yen drops under 105, the stronger yen sends the NIKK -0.3% lower. The central bankers control the stock market through money printing. Asia is mixed overall with the SSEC the big winner gaining +0.8%. Global traders anticipate more PBOC stim






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 money bazooka; central bankers can create higher stock markets simply by edict. The ECB’s move into quantitative easing is called QE Light since Draghi will not purchase sovereign government debt but instead private debt. The German bund drifts higher to 0.97%. US equities leak lower off the top since the VIX moves above 12. The dollar/yen runs to 105.34 as the dollar index runs higher.

Oil Inventory data shows less of a loss in inventory than expected so global demand remains challenged at the same time the world is awash in oil supply. A gallon of oil remains cheaper than a gallon of milk. WTIC is down -1% to 94.55. Ditto Brent oil sitting at 102. Natty gas is also down -1% to 3.81. BP slips on an oil spill losing -5%. A US court rules that BP is grossly negligent concerning the 2010 Gulf oil spill disaster so the oil giant may be subject to greater penalties. BP plans to file an appeal.

Appaloosa Management’s notable bullish investor David Tepper who has accurately called the bullish stock market based on the central banker easy money policies, tells CNBC business television that today marks the “beginning of the end for the bond rally.” Strategists, analysts and traders have called the top in the 30-year bond rally for the last five years; all have been wrong. Tepper also says the ECB move today “can’t be bad for stocks” worldwide. Thus, Tepper expects the US stock market to continue higher while bonds are sold off (Treasury yields moving higher); higher stocks with higher yields. Typically, Tepper’s words would instantly impact the stock market (several handles of SPX upside would be expected since Tepper is bullish the stock market) but oddly, the SPX is unaffected ignoring his comments.

Consumer discretionary leads the upside with XLY gaining +0.5%. AMZN is up +2.2%. DHI gains +1.3% after this morning’s upgrade and the homebuilders move higher. TSLA moves higher from this morning up +1.7% as excitement increases over the battery factory announcement. GPRO drops -5.4% but is already a double in its short two-months of trading.

At 2 PM, the VIX is leaping higher towards 13 pounding equities lower. The luster is off the Draghi rose. At 2:30 PM, equities accelerate lower. The broad indexes place the low at 3:15 PM and recover slightly into the closing bell. Energy is smacked in the face which hurts a significant number of long traders that continue to tout the energy story for this year. XLE loses -1.4% and is down from above 101 to 96 over the last two months.

The day ends with the SPX down 3 points, -0.2%, to 1998, well off the LOD at 1992.54. The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 2011.17. The Dow drops 9 points, -0.1%, to 17070, printing a new all-time intraday record high at 17161.55, but remains unable to print a new all-time closing high above 17138.20. TRAN prints new all-time intraday and closing highs at 8550 and higher but the Dow Industrials are not yet able to close at a new all-time high to verify the upside market rally from a Dow Theory perspective.

The COMPQ drops 10 points, -0.2%, to 4562 and ends the streak of new 14-1/2 year highs. The RUT drops 5 points, -0.4%, to 1167. Equity markets began the day happy after Draghi fired the QE money bazooka but faded lower from 11 AM forward after the European markets closed. The lower euro will benefit European companies but at the expense of US multinational companies.

After the bell, fast-food restaurateur LOCO goes crazy leaping over +6% higher on its first-ever earnings report that meets on EPS and beats by a hair on top line revenue. Long traders are tripping over each other to buy the tasty chicken and the hot El Pollo Loco stock. Retailer ZQK is in quicksand dropping -13% in the AH trading. GPS falls into the gap losing -6% ruining the recent positivity. ZUMZ drops -7% after meeting on earnings but guiding lower. KORS drops -4% after announcing a secondary stock offering (dilution). So Quiksilver, Gap, Zumiez and Michael Kors are all taking the pipe and will weigh negatively on the retail sector tomorrow. Contact lens maker COO misses on earnings.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) designates MET a non-bank systemically important financial institution (SIFI). Metlife fights the declaration since increased regulation and holding a larger capital position will cut into profits. Metlife says they are a simple insurance company but the government says otherwise. MET will see active trading tomorrow as the ramifications of the new designation are identified.

Idiots begin forming a line in front of AAPL’s flagship New York store ahead of the new iPhone 6 release on Tuesday. Publicity seekers are in line to promote web sites or other business offerings since they will be interviewed and others are paid to stand in line by wealthy individuals that want to be first to show off the new iPhone.

Fed data shows that the wealthiest 10% of society was the only social class that became wealthier over the last three years. Middle class and poor families see their incomes drop during the same time period. As often cited in the chronology, the wealthy are becoming wealthier due to the Fed’s Keynesian money printing at the expense of the middle class and poor. The funny, and sick, part of it all is that the banker and other corporate greed caused the financial collapse in 2008 but these folks never paid a price for their nefarious deeds and are now richer than ever.

The average American is making about 25% less than a few years ago while the wealthy elite class is making 25% more than a few years ago and enjoying huge stock market gains. The Fed created this mess, fully endorsed by rich democratic and republican politicians, and President Obama since he appointed Chair Yellen, which will lead to future social unrest in America as the have not’s seek retribution against the have’s.

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