Thursday, July 24, 2014

THURSDAY 7/24/14; Global PMI's; CAT; F; GM; MMM; LLY; DNKN; New Home Sales; SPX New All-Time Highs; AMZN; BIDU; P; SBUX; V

China HSBC Flash PMI is 52 at an 18-month high blowing out the 51 expectations and the prior month’s 50.7. The PBOC stimulus measures are creating the economic boost. The central bankers keep goosing economies and markets with easy money. Copper leaps +1.4% higher. Chinese real estate companies power higher. SSEC +1.3%. The HSI is up +0.7% printing a seven-year high at 24142. Japan exports are down for two months in a row sending the NIKK down -0.3%. Dollar/yen 101.51. The KOSPI trades lower after South Korea is expected to report a weaker than expected Q2 GDP. India’s Nifty Index trades sideways remaining at all-time highs above 7800. The US ends its 40-year ban on exporting oil with the first shipments en route to Japan and South Korea.

700 are dead in day 17 of the Israel-Hamas conflict with no signs of a cease-fire. The Gaza invasion is in day seven. Secretary Kerry says there is progress on ending the fighting but that is not apparent from the ongoing violence. Israeli troops continue to destroy Hamas tunnels. Israel’s business and economic activity is suffering. Non-stop air raid sirens require folks to make continuous trips back and forth to bomb shelters decreasing productivity. The UN alleges war crimes against Israel for the killing of civilians in Gaza which increases the intensity of the conflict. Hamas is storing missiles and weaponry in schools, hospitals and churches using citizens as human shields. The FAA lifts the ban on flying into Tel Aviv but many airlines continue to avoid the airspace.

The Ukraine civil war continues. A Ukraine rebel leader admits that the pro-Russian separatists possess BUK missiles. Germany is agreeable to sectoral sanctions but only for a limited time frame. These Level Three more serious and stronger sanctions can be in place before August. The sanctions will negatively impact Russia as well as Europe. Russia’s Micex Index began the day higher but prints negative down -0.2% after the news from Germany.

Air Algerie loses contact with Flight 5017, operated by Swiftair, en route from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (Africa), to Algers, Algeria. The airplane carries 110 passengers and six flight crew. Concern grows over the safety of air line travel. Low-fare airliner EasyJet forecasts better profits ahead but trades down -3.9%. Norway receives a threat that a terrorism event will occur in Europe or Norway at any time before Christmas.

The ECB reports a security breach where computer hackers steal email information and contact details. Europe indexes begin trading on the plus side. The CAC is outperforming up +0.8%. The euro moves higher to 1.3479 on encouraging PMI numbers. European manufacturing numbers are at or near three-month highs. Euro zone PMI is 54.0 well above the prior month’s 52.8. UK retail sales remain robust but are below consensus. The former CEO of Portugal’s troubled Banco Espirito Santo is arrested and charged with tax evasion and money laundering.

The consumer goods behemoth UL drops -1.7% after reporting weak sales in emerging markets and a drop in overall revenue. Swiss drug-maker Roche reports a drop in profits but confirms the outlook and trades higher. NOK gains +8% on strong earnings. Alstom trades lower after hit with charges by the UK Serious Fraud Office. The SFO alleges that Alstom was involved in corruption in Poland, Tunisia and India between 2000 and 20006. In Frankfurt trading, QCOM is down -5.8%. GM and F are each down -0.9% ahead of earnings results today. FB is up +3% and climbing as interest in owning Facebook increases overnight.











[Text is Redacted: Purchase July 2014-07 to Read the Complete Chronology]
















Deckers Outdoor reports less of a loss than expected and beats on the top line. DECK jumps +6%. Samsung and Apple supplier Maxim misses on both the top and bottom lines. Softness in Samsun device sales is blamed. MXIM collapses -13%. Several of the high-flying chip and semiconductor stocks announce disappointing news over the last couple weeks. Chip-maker KLAC reports disappointing earnings ALTR, however, trades higher after reporting earnings and guidance in line and raising the dividend. ALGN beats on top and bottom lines but guides lower on EPS with steady revenue going forward.

Turkey PM Erdogan says that Israel’s invasion into Gaza is worse than Hitler. International outrage is growing since a UN-run school in Gaza is hit with a rocket killing civilians including children. The Palestinians and Hamas say an Israeli missile caused the damage, as one would suspect, however, the UN, who is no friend to Israel, says the investigation continues and the school may have been hit with an errant Hamas rocket.

The US State Department provides video and other proof that the Russian army is firing at Ukraine military targets. The Ukraine civil war between the western Ukraine pro-European and West citizenry versus the eastern Ukraine pro-Russian and East citizenry escalates into a multi-nation war with Russia now fighting Ukraine. Tragically, like a Shakespearian play, global traders ignore geopolitics and buy stocks since the Fed, BOJ and other bankers plan to keep equity markets moving higher forever.

Television personality James Cramer touts the latest favorite flavors in the tech industry; AAPL, GOOG and FB recommending them as long plays. However, caution is likely a better recommendation for folks since a stock market moving up on the backs of a limited number of selective companies is typically an indication of a significant market top. MS agrees to pay $275 million to settle mortgage bond litigation. The big banks continue to receive slaps on the wrist; that paltry loose change can be found under the couch cushions in Morgan Stanley’s lobby.

The popularity of fast-casual and Mexican restaurants continues with El Pollo Loco restaurant planning to go public under the ticker symbol LOCO. Hot-shot restaurant IPO’s such as PBPB and NDLS have collapsed since their debut in trading this year. The new Chinese meat and poultry scandal is slapping restaurateurs MCD, YUM and BKW lower in recent days. MCD collapses -3.7% this week. The dividend stock bubble is prime for popping and the yearly divvy gain for a stock can quickly become irrelevant if the capital value of the stock plummets.

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